MORNING ALL!!! A decent day to start of the three-day Aintree Festival yesterday, finishing with two winners from the four selections & +4.1pts profit on the day. Today looks much trickier to me so I’ve while I’ve picked out four selections again they are all a little more tentative than yesterday – hopefully we will keep the winning run going!
14:55 FIREFOX 11/4 (B365 – BOG) – 1pt win 2nd -1pt
15:30 PIC D’ORHY 4/1 (B365 – BOG) – 1pt win Lost -1pt
16:05 KILLER KANE 25/1 (Skybet – 7 places) – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt
16:40 CROKE PARK 7/1 (B365 – BOG) – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt
13:45 MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE
- All of the last 20 race winners were Irish (x12) or French (x8) bred.
- 11/11 winners arrived here having raced at least four times, with 9/11 having won at least twice earlier in the season.
- 10/11 winners ran within the last 30 days.
- 10/11 winners rated 153 or above.
- 10/11 winners finished 1st or 2nd at Cheltenham last time out.
- 8/11 winners lost last time out.
- 7/11 winners went off as favourite/joint-favourite.
- 5 of the last 6 Brown Advisory winners to have raced here have been beaten.
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN was an impressive winner of the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last month, grabbing his first chase victory having had to settle for minor honours on a number of occasions previously. CHIANTI CLASSICO was equally as impressive when winning the Ultima at Cheltenham, supported late on and handling the testing conditions better than maybe even his trainer had expected. Both would have to be considered given the way they won their respective races however given the ground was heavier than usual at this years’ Festival there is a niggling feeling that a few who had hard races there may not yet have fully recovered.
BROADWAY BOY had to miss Cheltenham however as a result could have a freshness advantage and as a prior course and distance winner warrants plenty of respect, perhaps even more so given his liking for the forecast conditions.
IROKO is yet to attempt this trip when tackling fences but was a staying on third in the Sefton over hurdles at last years’ renewal and actually looked a little outpaced when the tempo increased in the Turners at Cheltenham so there is every chance that his stamina will hold out here and he’s an interesting runner having raced just twice this season due to injury.
GIOVINCO is a prior course and distance winner who is proven on heavy ground & ran a great race for 3rd at 40/1 in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham last month. Ratings suggest he needs a career best to feature but in a small field such as this and considering the extreme conditions being a great leveller I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big run.
Selection – No bet in the race – too close to call.
14:20 WILLIAM HILL HANDICAP HURDLE
- 15/16 winners carried no more than 11-4.
- 9/11 winners ran within the last 44 days.
- 8/11 winners were rated in the 130’s.
- 8/11 winners lost last time out.
- Only 1 winning favourite from the last 11 renewals
- Paul Nicholls is 0-26 since 2000
- N Henderson has won this race 3 times since 2012.
The key race trends above lead me to three who should have a decent chance of at least picking up some place money – CHAMPAGNE TWIST, SERIOUS OPERATOR & OCASTLE DES MOTTES. The first arrives here looking for his hat-trick following wins at Doncaster and Sandown in recent months, beating a decent looking field in that Sandown race (3rd has been out and won since) and the latter ran well enough for fifth in the Martin Pipe on what was his first attempt over 20f but had previously won well over 18f in heavy ground when trained in France. Both could be worth some each way change but of the trio slight preference would be for Serious Operator also arrives here in excellent form, winning two of his last three including when beating Brewin’upastorm at Kelso when last seen (that horse has since won a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse). Jockey Paddy Wadge has been in the saddle for each of his last four career wins and is aboard again here.
A mention also goes to JANGO BAIE whose record for Nicky Henderson reads 1122 where he was only beaten a half-length behind the winner in a Grade 2 at Kelo when last seen. The race trends suggest he’s carrying a little too much weight for the win but for me this is countered by the fact his trainer has had three winners here since 2012 so he’s one for the shortlist.
Selection – None, another race that I think is very open with a number who are capable of winning
14:55 TOP NOVICES HURDLE
- All of the last 11 winners had raced at least 3 times earlier in the season.
- 10/11 winners aged 5 or 6.
- 10/11 winners ran within the last 31 days.
- 10/11 winners had race at least 4 times over 15-17 furlongs, with 8 of those 10 winning at least twice over that trip.
- 8/11 winners ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (none won, 5 placed)
- 8/11 winners were rated 141+
- N Henderson has won this race 5 times since 2012.
Raced 3 times in the season, aged 5 or 6, raced within 31 days, raced 4 times over 15-17 furlongs, won twice over the trip & rated 141 or over – Firefox & Mystical Power.
MYSTICAL POWER lost his unbeaten record when second to Slade Steel in the Supreme at Cheltenham but ran a cracker in defeat and finished over three lengths clear of the re-opposing Firefox, with Mistergif a further couple of lengths back in fifth. Watching the race back, the slightly slower conditions (officially soft, heavy in places) probably benefitted Slade Steel more than Mystical Power yet there is no doubt that he handled the ground and this flatter track may play to his strengths.
FIREFOX beat subsequent Gallagher Novices Hurdle winner Ballyburn in soft ground over this trip at Fairyhouse in December but couldn’t follow up when tried over further at Naas the following month and also had to settle for minor honours in the Supreme when last seen, although that doesn’t tell the full story as he was hampered at a crucial stage which allowed Mystical Power sweep past and get first run (only to be out-battled for the victory). Without that interference I think that Firefox would have been upsides Mystical Power and with the benefit of forwards momentum may have actually got closer to the winner than the Wilie Mullins runner. It promises to be a great re-match yet if granted a clear round then I think Firefox could just have the edge.
GOLDEN ACE beat the highly regarded Brighterdaysahead when winning the Mares Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham and the form of that race has already been franked as Jade De Grugy who was fourth that day has since come out and won a Fairyhouse Grade 1. The Golden Horn mare is unbeaten over hurdles and still looks to have plenty of potential to improve so getting the 7lbs allowance from most rivals looked a reasonable each way option although is now NR.
DYSART ENOS is unbeaten in six since joining Fergal O’Brien, including a Grade 2 bumper where she beat Mares Novices Hurdle winner Golden Ace, and having missed Cheltenham arrives here fresher than her rivals. As with Golden Ace she gets a handy allowance over the boys however does have a bit to find on ratings and although has impressed in her races so far this is another big step up in class and I fear she may fall short today.
Selection – Firefox
15:30 MELLING CHASE
- 10/11 winners were rated 161+
- 10/11 winners aged between 7 and 9.
- 10/11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (6/11 winning faves)
- 10/11 winners had raced previously at Aintree, with 3 of those 10 having won here.
- 9/11 winners ran within the last 30 days.
- 9/11 winners raced in the QMCC (6x) or Ryanair (3x) last time out.
- 8/11 winners lost last time out.
- All of the last 6 winners have been French-bred.
- The Tingle Creek (won by Jonbon) has been a great guide to this race.
Key race trends – Rated 161+, aged 7-9, French-bred, prior Aintree experience, raced in the QMCC or Ryanair – Protektorat.
JONBON has won at this Festival for the last two years, beating El Fabiolo a neck when winning the Top Novices Hurdle in 2022 and the Maghull Novices Chase last season. He’s never finished outside the top two in his career to date although was beaten a neck at odds of 1/4 when last seen in January and now steps up in trip in an effort to get back to winning ways. He’s versatile in relation to conditions having won on good, soft and heavy but for some reason I think he gets beat again today.
PROTEKTORAT roared back to form with an impressive victory in the Ryanair at Cheltenham, with ENVOI ALLE 4 lengths back in second and CONFLATED a further 3 lengths back in third. A prior course and distance winner having won the Manifesto here in 2021, he is the only runner in the field who fits all of the key race trends
PIC D’ORHY won this race on soft ground last season and arrives here in excellent form having put in a cracking round of jumping when winning the Ascot Chase when last seen in February. He probably wouldn’t want to see much more rain but I’m unsure of Jonbon given the step up in trip in these conditions (and the stable form) and despite Protektorat being the only horse to fit all of the trends he doesn’t strike me as the obvious type to follow up whereas Pic D’orhy does, so I am sticking with the Paul Nicholls’ runner.
Selection – Pic D’orhy
16:10 TOPHAM CHASE
- 11/11 winners were rated 132+
- 10/11 winners lost last time out.
- 10/11 winners ran within the last 41 days.
- 10/11 winners had raced at least 4 times over 19-21 furlongs and had won at least once over the trip.
- 10/11 winners had raced at least 4 times earlier in the season.
- 9/11 winners had won at least twice over fences.
- 6/11 winners had raced previously at Aintree, with 4 of those 6 having won here.
- P Bowen is 5/3/21 since 2005.
- Steer clear of horses that ran at Newbury last time out, and also steer clear of Irish trained runners (unless trained by W Mullins)
Peter Bowen boasts an excellent record in this race and runs FRANCKY DU BERLAIS who finished 4th in the 2022 renewal of this race. At 11 years old he may not quite be the force of old but could still give you a run for your money.
SHAKEM UP’ARRY has won his last two races with a bit of a flourish and has a third and a fourth place finish to his name from two prior runs at this festival, however despite the ground being in his favour he’s gone up a further 6lbs to a career high of 149 and I fear that may be enough to scupper his chances of notching his hat-trick.
There have been a number of winners of this race who have retained their crown the following year (the most recent being Ultragold when successful in 2017 & 2018) but even so it’s a bit of a surprise to see BILL BAXTER atop the markets in his bid to add his name to that list as despite only being 1lbs higher than last year he arrives here with a bit of a point to prove as he’s been well beaten in all four runs so far this season.
KILLER KANE ran well for third in this race last season, finishing thirteen lengths behind winner Bill Baxter when racing off a 4lbs higher mark. He also ran with credit when third in a Grade 3 race here at Aintree the year before and was also second at the course when tackling hurdles in 2020 so overall has a decent record of three placed efforts from three prior runs at the course. Racing off a mark of 129 and from the foot of the weights, he looks to have as good a chance as any so gets a somewhat tentative vote considering the competitive nature of the race.
Selection – Killer Kane
16:40 SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE
- 11/11 winners were aged 6 (x8) or 7 (x3).
- 10/11 winners ran within the last 41 days.
- 10/11 winners had raced at least 3 times and won at least twice earlier in the season.
- 8/11 winners were rated 138+
- The Albert Bartlett has provided the winner 4 times in the last 11 years.
- Lucinda Russell has won two of the last 3 renewals.
- N Henderson has won this race 3 times since 2012.
THE JUKEBOX MAN made a cracking start to his hurdling career, winning back-to-back races at Ffos Las in heavy ground over two and a half miles, before another excellent run when third in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle finishing less than two lengths behind winner Captain Teague. Stepped up to three miles for the first time in the Albert Bartlett last month he ran a stormer from the front and was only caught by a strong staying performance from Stellar Story, a head behind the winner but seven clear of the re-opposing Dancing City in third. If he manages to get an easy lead on the front he could prove tough to peg back, although has had a couple of tough races.
DANCING CITY won a Grade 1 at the DRF and did well enough for third when last seen in the Albert Bartlett however wasn’t really suited to the slower pace throughout the race and with a number who are likely to want to lead I expect there to be more pace in today’s race. I actually think that an in-form Dancing City should be capable of reversing that form with The Jukebox Man but he’s been uneasy in the markets since last night, almost doubling in price, and that doesn’t happen often for a Willie Mullins horse so I’m going to leave him alone today.
SHANAGH BOB missed Cheltenham so arrives here a fresher horse than some and looks to have absolute bags of potential, however I’m still not convinced that Nicky Henderson’s runners are firing on all cylinders and I think (I could be wrong) that I’ve read somewhere that they expect him to be better over fences so while I respect his chances and am really quite excited for his future I won’t be backing him today.
This brings me to Croke Park who won his first two over hurdles including a Grade 3 race at Navan in November. He disappointed when last of seven in the Lawlor’s Of Naas when last seen but was outpaced when the tempo increased so should be suited by this step up in trip – a victory and a solid second in point-to-points also suggests that this test of stamina will play to his strengths.
Selection – Croke Park
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