Tuesday 12th November

Trainer Watch – Tom Lacey

Following a suggestion from one of our followers, we have decided to follow the progress of one trainer over the course of the next few weeks… and our first trainer is to be Tom Lacey. I have picked Tom as he doesn’t tend to have too many runners but has been very consistent since beginning his training career in 2014, posting 119 winners from 619 runners for a 19% winning strike rate, with level stakes profit of +£79.80.

At this stage this section of the blog is purely a snapshot of runners, with further information and thoughts if time permits. There will be no points played on any of the runners unless they are detailed in the main selections above.

Huntingdon 13:40 – Sebastopol

  • Trainer has an all-time record of 6 wins & 2 placed from 17 runners at Huntingdon, a 35% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£22.58

  • Posted a couple of solid efforts in defeat last winter (4th behind Thomas Darby & Elixir Du Nutz at Cheltenham last October) before returning a commanding 7 length winner over 2 miles on good ground last month. Has been raised from 127 to 137 on official ratings for that, but looked to have plenty in hand so would be no surprise to see another victory here.

Hereford 14:30 – Red Nika

  • Trainer has an all-time record of 2 wins & 4 placed from 14 runners at Hereford

  • A point-to-point winner who made his debut over hurdles here at Hereford, finishing a decent 2nd over 2m 3f. Drops back in trip for todays’ race with jockey taking off 5lbs.

*Tom had two runners at Kempton yesterday, posting one winner and one 4th.


Tuesday Stats Runners

Hereford

W Greatrex 5 wins from 16 for a 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:30 – Little Jack

16:00 – Hen

V Williams 5 wins from 19 for a 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:00 – Jurys Out

D Skelton 3 wins from 11 for a 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

15:00 – Present Ranger

A Heskin 3 wins from 4 for a 75% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:00 – Stop The World

Huntingdon

N Gifford 4 wins from 9 for a 44% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:10 – Snowy Oscar

Lingfield

R Rowe 3 wins from 11 for a 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:50 – Colonel Keating

14:20 – Sunday At Augusta

C Gordon 3 wins from 11 for a 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:50 – Pres

L Wadham 3 wins from 6 for a 50% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£24.50 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

14:50 – Potters Hedger

L Aspell 3 wins from 7 for a 43% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:50 – Pres

14:20 – Gregarious

L Aspell 4 wins from 13 for a 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:20 – Go Whatever

14:50 – Potters Hedger


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

11th November 2019: -6pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -16pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

Monday 11th November

NAP Ecu De La Noverie 9/2 (B365) – Kempton 14:05 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

Has been a consistent performer since joining Philip Hobbs, posting one win and four placed efforts from five runs, and made a pleasing return to action with a solid second over an inadequate trip at Wetherby last month, his first run since January. He’s again partnered with owner David Maxwell in the saddle, who has had two wins from three rides in the last two weeks and a 36% winning strike rate in the last twelve months when riding for the trainer. With a recent run under his belt and an extra two furlongs to cover, he looks capable of carrying joint top-weight to victory today.

NB Lilys Gem 5/2 (B365) – Carlisle 13:55 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Stuart Crawford won this race last season and boasts a 42% winning strike rate in the last three years over hurdles at the course (5 wins from 12 runners). This year he relies on Lilys Gem who despite being yet to win in three over hurdles she has put in a couple of promising runs when placed the last twice. She has a win and a second from two runs over course and distance in bumpers so can use this prior course experience to get off the mark today.

3B Theclockisticking 5/1 (Coral) – Kempton 14:40 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

A solid sixth in the Pertemps at Cheltenham in March, he now switches back to the smaller obstacles and takes a drop back in trip for his first run since a wind op and races off a mark 6lbs below his last victory. Career wins have come in November 2017 and November 2018 so this looks like the right time to catch him.


Monday Stats Runners

Carlisle

S R B Crawford 42% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:55 – Lilys Gem

B Ellison 36% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£22.63 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:20 – Windsor Avenue

Kempton

N Henderson 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

12:20 – Chasamix

13:30 – Versatility

14:40 – Morning Vicar


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

11th November 2019: -6pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -16pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

Sunday 10th November

Saint De Vassy7/4 (Whill) – Ffos Las 14:35 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Saint De Vassy finished in the top three places in all four runs over hurdles last season, finishing just over a length behind subsequent dual winner Dolphin Square (and over twenty lengths clear of the remainder) when last seen in March. He is partnered with David Bass who boasts a record of 7 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course and the step up in trip looks a positive based on last run so he looks to have a great chance of beginning his season with victory today.

The biggest danger looks to be Hideaway Vic who finished a solid third behind Emitom and Lisnagar Oscar over course and distance twelve months ago, well clear of the rest of the field, and although he couldn’t land the odds next time out he still finished a respectable second in very testing conditions when last seen in March. On both runs he raced prominently before fading and being headed in the last couple of furlongs and racing over the same trip again I fear he may do the same today.

Darksideoftarnside brings winning course form in to the race, however that came on the flat and two prior attempts over hurdles have resulted in a fall and a tailed off finish so although an interesting runner on return to hurdles he does come with obvious risks attached.


Sunday Stats Runners

Ffos Las

D Bass 7 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 50% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£42.08…

14:35 – Saint De Vassy

Sandown

S Houlihan 4 wins from 9 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 44% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£31.25…

12:45 – Melekhov

J E Moore 8 wins from 24 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 33% winning strike rate…

13:15 – The Flying Sofa

A King 3 wins from 10 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 30% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£19…

13:15 – Canelo

14:25 – Talkischeap

D Pipe 4 wins from 12 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 33% winning strike rate…

15:30 – Rathlin Rose


Horses I am looking forward to seeing today

*Not tips – just notebook runners

Navan

13:35 – Andy Dufresne

14:10 – Duc Des Genievres

15:15 – Fakir D’Oudairies & Melon

Ffos Las

15:40 – Le Coeur Net


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

10th November 2019: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -10pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

Saturday 9th November

NAP Cepage 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 14:05 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Last seen finishing a close-up second to Frodon in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham almost 12 months ago, Cepage returns to action in what looks to be a winnable race. He has an excellent record fresh, posting a win and two very close seconds when returning from a break of 180+ days, and both career victories have come on soft or good-to-soft ground. Furthermore, his trainer Venetia Williams has had an excellent start to the season, posting four wins from thirteen over the last two weeks. Cepage is her only runner today and I would be a little surprised if it weren’t a winning one.

NB Charmant 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 13:30 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

The Last Day comes in to this race with a 50% winning strike rate over two miles and was last seen in March winning comfortably, yet all his career wins have come in very testing conditions and his record fresh isn’t great so I am happy to look elsewhere.

Charmant was a dual hurdles winner but looked much more at home over larger obstacles last season, winning three from five. The seven-year-old has won his last three when returning from a break, has won on ground ranging from heavy through to good, and is again partnered with jockey Brian Hughes who was in the saddle for the three afore-mentioned victories and has a solid strike rate both at the course and for the trainer.


ITV Racing

13.30 Charmant

13:50 Danse Idol

14:05 Cepage

14:25 Solomon Grey (e/w)

14:40 Vive Le Roi

15:00 Fusil Raffles

15:35 The Young Master (e/w)


Horses I am looking forward to seeing today

*Not tips – just notebook runners

Naas

12:00 – Blackbow

14:50 – Longhouse Poet

15:25 – Tornado Flyer

Aintree

12:20 – JohnBB

15:15 – Roksana

Wincanton

13:50 – Empeirente Reconce

15:00 – Fusil Raffles

15:35 – White Moon


Wincanton

Paul Nicholls has posted 83 winners from 230 runners since the beginning of 2016, an impressive 36% winning strike rate, and has had plenty of successes at this meeting in-particular:

12:40 – won 4 of the last 5 renewals (runs Flic Ou Voyou & Starsky)

13:15 – 3 wins since 2011 (runs Santemilion)

13:50 – 3 wins since 2011 (runs Danse Idol)

14:25 – 5 wins since 2011 (runs If You Say Run – who won the 13:50 last season)

15:00 – 4 wins since 2009 (runs Grand Sancy & Chrstopher Wood)

15:35 – 4 wins since 2010 (runs Present Man who has won this race for the last 2 years, and Give Me A Copper)

16:10 – 3 wins since 2012 (runs Confirmation Bias)


Other Stats

Aintree

C Tizzard 6 wins from 30 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 20% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£58.50…

13:30 – Lillington

14:05 – The Russian Doyen

Kelso

K Dalgleish 12 wins from 37 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 32% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£34.01…

12:10 – Sidi Ismael

15:05 – Highway Companion

W Coltherd 6 wins from 23 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 26% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£29…

13:55 – Pookie Pekan

Wincanton

A J Honeyball 3 wins from 7 in the last 3 years in bumpers at the course…

16:10 – Mont Segur


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

9th November 2019: -4pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -8pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

Thursday 7th November

Some decent looking races on Thursday but quite a few races where I can’t decide between two (or three) runners so its just a watching brief for me…
Shortlisted Runners
Newbury 13:30 – Sir Valentine (danger Steal A March)
Newbury 14:05 – Beakstown (dangers Champ & Dashel Drasher)
Market Rasen 14:15 – Annie Angel (danger The Bay Birch)
Newbury 14:35 – Floressa (danger Silver Forever)
Sedgefield 14:25 – Late Date (danger Sutters Mill)


Thursday Stats Runners
Market Rasen
D Skelton 30% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…
14:15 – Annie Angel
Newbury
N Henderson 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…
13:30 – Steal A March
14:35 – Floresco
15:10 – Diablo De Rouhet
Sedgefield
D Sayer 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£16.38 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…
13:15 – Calliope
16:00 – Summer Lightening
P Kirby 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£22.38 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…
13:15 – L’Attendue
13:50 – Fasterkhani & Gordalan

Wednesday 6th November

NAP John Williams 11/2 (B365) – Musselburgh 14:50 – 1pt win Lost -1pt

  • 4 wins from 10 at the course, with 2 wins from 3 coming over course and distance
  • Last win off a mark of 102, races off 100 today
  • Trainer A M Thomson 6 wins from 19 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 31% winning strike rate
  • Jockey R McDonald 6 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 43% winning strike rate

Wednesday Stats Runners

Chepstow

T Lacey 5 wins from 18 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 28% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£44.50…

13:35 – Floating Rock

K C Bailey 3 wins from 11 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 27% winning strike rate…

15:10 – He’s No Trouble

P Nicholls 7 wins from 13 in the last 3 years in bumpers at the course, a 54% winning strike rate.

16:15 – Switch Hitter

Musselburgh

A Johns 4 wins from 13 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 31% winning strike rate…

13:45 – Numero Uno

14:20 – Electron Bleu

A M Thomson 6 wins from 19 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 31% winning strike rate…

14:50 – John Williams

R McDonald 6 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 43% winning strike rate…

14:50 – John Williams


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

6th November 2019: -1pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

Tuesday 5th November

NAP Unwin VC 5/2 (B365) – Exeter 13:10 – 1pt win Lost -1pt

  • Dual bumper winner in early 2018 (one here at Exeter), before a couple of promising displays over hurdles again here at Exeter, placing twice over 23f

  • Drop in trip expected to suit

NB Gods Own 13/2 (B365) – Exeter 14:10 – 1pt win Lost -1pt

  • Has raced over course and distance in this race three times, winning twice and finishing 3rd of 5 in the other (beaten 6 lengths following a mistake 4 from home)

  • Both victories came on 1st run of the season

  • Trainer & jockey in good form


Tuesday Stats Runners

Exeter

P Nicholls 33% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:10 – Cat Tiger & Saint De Reve

13:40 – Eritage

P Nicholls 38% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:10 – Dolos

H Fry 30% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:10 – Rufio

13:40 – Bullionaire

Southwell

B Curtis 17% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£46.25 in the last 3 years at the course…

13:00 – Twpsyn

14:30 – Guardia Svizzera

15:00 – Lili Wen Fach

15:30 – Memory Hill

R Fell 17% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£72.13 in the last 3 years at the course…

14:30 – Guardia Svizzera


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

5th November 2019: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -3pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts