Friday 19th October

NAP Katiymann 5/1 (B365) – Dundalk 18:30 – 2pts win

Has made the frame in all five prior runs at the course, winning this race last season and running well when second to Aussie Valentine here last week. Shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the step back in trip and his trainer is in excellent form.


 

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Thursday 18th October

NAP Sky Pirate 9/2 (PP)– Carlisle 15:45 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

  • Decent 2nd on chase debut last month (winner won again, in impressive fashion, next time out)
  • Aidan Coleman in the saddle – 40% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course

Thursday Shortlisted Runners

Du Soleil 8/1 (PP) – Carlisle 14:10 3rd

  • Won first time up in a bumper and also first time up last season so the return from a seven-month break shouldn’t be a concern
  • Trainer 25% winning strike rate at the course
  • 2 wins & 2 placed from 4 runs over a two-mile trip, with the wins coming on good-to-soft & soft ground

Sky Pirate 9/2 (PP)– Carlisle 15:45 2nd

  • Decent 2nd on chase debut last month (winner won again, in impressive fashion, next time out)
  • Aidan Coleman in the saddle – 40% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course

Pineapple Rush 7/2 (B365) – Carlisle 16:20 Lost

  • Won 2 from 3 over hurdles, both wins coming over todays’ trip on ground with some cut
  • Trainer & jockey in good form

Halcyon Days 7/2 (sky) – Carlisle 16:55 WON (SP 15/2)

  • 2 from 2 over course and distance
  • Races today off last winning mark

Kalifornia 7/2 (B365) – Carlisle 17:30 Lost

  • Last seen winning a bumper at Bangor in May
  • Trainer 5 winners from 9 runners in the last 2 weeks

Thursday Stats Runners

Brighton

R Hannon 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

13:30 – Popsicle

14:00 – Water Diviner

R Hughes 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£36.34 in the last 3 years…

14:00 – Canford Dancer

Poppy Bridgewater 9 wins from 26 in the last 12 months, a 35% winning strike rate…

13:30 – Suni Dancer

15:05 – Windsorlot

15:35 – De Vegas Kid

Chelmsford

W Haggas 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

18:45 – Awe

19:15 – Field Gun

20:15 – Sweet Nature & Muneyra

Carlisle

M A Barnes 33% win & 66% place strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

15:45 – Carrigdhoun

S Twiston-Davies 44% win & 66% place strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:10 – Luckofthedraw

15:45 – Tintern Theatre

R Johnson 35% win & 94% place strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:45 – En Meme Temps

16:20 – Pineapple Rush

S R B Crawford 55% win & 66% place strike rate in the last 3 years in bumpers…

17:30 – Rashee

Uttoxeter

D Skelton 32% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£32.79 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:55 – Mercers Troop

16:30 – Diomede Des Mottes & Tokey Dokey

K Price 45% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£36 in the last 3 years over fences…

17:05 – Clondaw Rigger

Tramore

J Dullea 33% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£38.50 in the last 3 years over fences…

16:10 – Rockys Silver


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

18/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -27.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Wednesday 17th October

NAP Case Key 7/1 (PP) – Bath 15:55 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Won on penultimate run with Mark Crehan in the saddle & was only beaten a nose when 2nd in a Class 3 race last time out so looks to have a great chance of returning to winning ways in what looks to be an easier race, especially as he is still below his best winning mark and has winning form in soft ground. 


Wednesday Shortlisted Runners

Divin Bere – Bath 14:20 WON

  • Hurdles winner off a mark of 137 so looks to have an obvious chance off just 60 on the flat

True Self – Bath 14:55 WON

  • A winner over hurdles, on the flat and in bumpers – Willie Mullins 1st runner at Bath

Wednesday Stats Runners

Bath

M Channon 22% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£13.75 in the last 3 years…

14:20 – Fitzwilly

Sir M Prescott 9 winners & 7 placed from 18 in the last 3 years, a 50% win & 89% place strike rate…

14:55 – Altra Vitra & Trouble and Strife

Nottingham

H Morrison 22% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£19.50 in the last 3 years…

15:35 – Compton Mill

16:05 – Jedhi

Wetherby

D Skelton 29% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:10 – King D’argent

16:20 – Notnow Seamus

N Twiston-Davies 31%% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:45 – El Terremoto

15:45 – Ballyandy


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

17/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -25.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Tuesday 16th October

NAP Whin Park 3/1 (PP) – Huntingdon 16:20 – 2pts win NR

  • Twice a winner in point-to-points & respectable 3rd over CD last time out
  • N De Boinville takes over in the saddle, 5 wins & 2 placed from 8 rides over fences in the last 3 years at the course

Tuesday Stats Runners

Leicester

M Channon 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£26.43 in the last 3 years…

16:05 – Gospel

16:40 – Crystal Tiara

17:10 – Kenny George

J Crowley 22% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£21.49 in the last 3 years…

15:35 – Mokammal

16:05 – Come On Leicester

17:10 – Dagian

17:40 – Cogital

Kempton

J Gosden 26% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£22.76 in the last 3 years…

20:15 – Argentello

Hereford

N Fehily 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

17:30 – All Hands On Deck

Huntingdon

N Henderson 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:45 – Before Midnight

S Edmunds 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:45 – Stonecoldsoba

16:50 – Hepijeu

N De Boinville 62%% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

16:20 – Whin Park


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

16/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: n/a

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -23.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Monday 15th October

NAP Jacob Black 6/1 (B365) – Musselburgh 14:20 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Inviolable Spirit wasn’t disgraced in a Class 3 race at Ayr when last seen so the drop back in to a Class 5 today would suggest he has a decent chance of adding a third victory at this level. That said, both trainer and jockey have struggled for winners in recent weeks so he does come with risks attached.

Pepys winning run came to an end in disappointing fashion at Redcar last month but the subsequent month break could prove to be a positive, although is another whose stable is struggling for form.   

With this in mind we turn to Jacob Black who has had two wins and two seconds from four runs over course and distance since re-joining Keith Dalgleish and although may not quite be the force of a couple of years ago (won a Class 3 handicap off a mark of 88 in 2015) he is still more than capable at this level and is taken to get back to winning ways at a course he excels at.


Monday Shortlisted Runners

14:50 – Gabrial The Tiger WON (SP 11/1)

  • 4 wins and a 3rd from 5 CD runs

15:20 – Muntadab 2nd (SP 6/1)

  • Won this race LY

15:50 – Mythmaker Lost

  • Trainer/jockey combo won this race LY

Yarmouth

15:30 – Tyrsal Lost

  • 3 of his 5 turf victories have come at Yarmouth
  • G Mosse interesting jockey booking

Monday Stats Runners

Windsor

C Cox 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£22.12 in the last 3 years…

14:40 – Venture

15:40 – Ghazan

16:10 – Cuban Heel

17:15 – Crafty Madam

Yarmouth

D Simcock 28% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£32.63 in the last 3 years…

13:30 – Hypnos

14:00 – Bubbelah

M Johnston 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£48.45 in the last 3 years…

13:30 – Divinder

14:00 – Unbeatable Dancer


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

15/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -23.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Sunday 14th October

NAP Minella Warrior 3/1 (B365) – Chepstow 15:25 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Minella Warrior beat a number of subsequent winners when finishing second to Kalashnikov in a decent looking bumper at Wetherby in March and has since gone on to win two from two since switching to hurdles. The latest of these in-particular was an impressive performance, finishing very strongly to win by almost ten lengths despite running down the final hurdle, so looks to have a strong chance of notching the hat-trick today.

Coolanly races for last years’ winning trainer and jockey combo and was a decent second behind Vinndication on first attempt over hurdles. He couldn’t back that up in the spring but did win a bumper on first run of last season so seemingly goes well fresh and rates a danger, while Paul Nicholls has won four of the last ten renewals so his runner Secret Investor, who has first run since a wind op, also deserves a mention.

NB Double Ross 10/1 (B365) – Chepstow 16:00 – 2pts win Fell -2pts

Beat That has won three from five over today’s trip and arrives here having won his last two, racing for red-hot trainer Nicky Henderson, so needs to be treated with respect, while On Tour has an excellent record on his first run of the season, finishing 1st or 2nd for each of his last five first time out runs so is another worthy of consideration.

That said, Double Ross won this race in 2016 carrying 11st 7lbs and put in a gallant effort when fourth last year carrying 11st 12lbs. He is now twelve-years-old but had a pipe-opener at Perth last month so should be spot on for this race. He looks to have an excellent chance carrying just 11st 1lbs and with both trainer and jockey operating at over 30% winning strike rates over the last two weeks.

3B Charbel 11/2 (PP) – Chepstow 17:10 – 2pts win WON +11pts

It has now been two years since Charbel last tasted victory but he has been racing at the highest level, in the process of giving Altior a minor scare in the Arkle in 2017 before falling two from home, and showed enough stepping up in trip on seasonal re-appearance last month to suggest that a race of this nature is within his grasp. Trainer Kim Bailey has been in excellent form over the last two weeks with four of his five runners over jumps having won their respective races so I am expecting a big run from his seven-year-old here today.

That said, there are dangers aplenty with 2016 winner Art Mauresque back for more, exciting prospect Barney Dwan returning from his summer break and Garde La Victoire (who has won first time up on a couple of occasions) completing the shortlist. 


Sunday Shortlisted Runners

14:50 Chepstow – Debece – an interesting runner on chase debut 2nd

17:40 Chepstow – Precious Bounty – Richard Johnson 27% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£56.80 in the last 12 months in bumpers


Sunday Stats Runners

T George 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:15 – Fanfan Du Seuil Fell

P Nicholls 25% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:25 – Secret Investor WON


In-form trainers

H D Daly 3 winners from 5 runners over hurdles in the last 2 weeks, a 60% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 16:35 – Honest Vic Lost

Dr Newland 5 winners and 2 placed from 10 in the last 2 weeks, a 50% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 16:35 – Lovato NR

K Bailey 4 winners from 5 jumps runners in the last 2 weeks, an 80% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 15:25 – Minella Warrior Lost

Chepstow 17:10 – Charbel WON


MONTHLY RESULTS….

14/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +7pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -21.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Saturday 13th October

As alluded to on twitter last night, October has so far not gone to plan and we sit almost 30 points down for the month so far! I have picked out my ITV selections and added all the in-form trainers and usual stats runners below, but have decided to just sit back and enjoy the return of the jumps at Chepstow today so there will be no main selections.


ITV Racing Selections

Newmarket 13:50 – Waldstern Lost

York 14:05 – Alternative Fact (e/w) Lost

Newmarket 14:25 – Persian King WON

York 14:40 – Dave Dexter 2nd

Newmarket 15:00 – Too Darn Hot WON

York 15:15 – Tommy Taylor (e/w) Lost

Newmarket 15:40 – Speedo Boy (e/w) Placed & Law Girl (e/w) Lost


In-form trainers (last 2 weeks)

H D Daly 3 winners from 4 runners over hurdles in the last 2 weeks, a 75% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 16:45 – Whatmore 3rd

N Henderson 4 winners and 2 placed from 7 in the last 2 weeks, a 57% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 13:55 – Pym WON

Chepstow 15:35 – Monbeg Legend 2nd

Chepstow 17:20 – Brave Eagle 3rd

Dr Newland 5 winners and 2 placed from 9 in the last 2 weeks, a 55% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 16:45 – La Patriote Lost

N B King 3 winners and 4 placed from 8 in the last 2 weeks, a 37% winning strike rate…

Chepstow 16:10 – Cubswin NR

In-form trainers (season)

T Lacey 27 winners & 30 placed from 112, for a 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£70.49 in the last 12 months…

15:05 – Meep Meep Lost 

17:20 – Thomas Patrick NR


Saturday Stats Runners

Chepstow

P Nicholls 25% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:05 – Posh Trish WON

16:10 – Grand Sancy WON

16:45 – Captain Cattistock Lost

Hexham

M T Walford 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

16:35 – Take A Break WON

Newmarket

A O’Brien 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£21.91 in the last 3 years…

13:50 – Norway WON & Sydney Opera House Lost

14:25 – Western AustraliaLost, Magna Grecia 2nd & Circus Maximus 3rd

15:00 – Anthony Van Dyck Lost, Mohawk Lost & Christmas Lost

15:35 – Southern France Lost

16:50 – Different League Lost

17:25 – Lucius Tiberius Lost

York

Sir M Stoute 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£15.21 in the last 3 years…

17:35 – Frontispiece


MONTHLY RESULTS….

12/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -9.5pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -28.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts