Saturday 11th August

Hi all, a quick message to let you know that the blog will return in a week as I am off on a well-deserved break with the family… hopefully plenty of sun, sea and sangria coming up over the coming days!!

I have done a race preview for the Sweet Solera Stakes and made a selection for all other ITV Races, they will be up on the Picks From The Paddock website on Saturday morning! Just follow the below link…

http://picksfromthepaddock.co.uk/

See you all in a week!!

Dean

 

 

 

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Thursday 9th August

NAP Born To Finish 9/2 (B365) – Haydock 15:40 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts


Brighton

A Kirby 28% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£11.64 in the last 3 years…

14:00 – King Crimson

14:30 – Topmeup

15:30 – Ashington

16:00 – Fabulous Red

16:30 – With Approval

R Hannon 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£34.90 in the last 3 years…

15:30 – Cheeky Rascal

Sandown

Sir M Stoute 30% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£30.53 in the last 3 years…

18:35 – Calculation

20:15 – Whitehall

R Moore 27% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£30.66 in the last 3 years…

18:35 – War Eagle

19:10 – Quargent

20:15 – Whitehall


MONTHLY RESULTS….

9/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -12.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts

Wednesday 8th August

NAP Late Change 11/4 (B365) – Yarmouth 19:50 – 2pts win WON (SP 3/1) +6pts

  • CD winner last time out, well on top at the finish so should be capable of following up despite a 4lbs rise.
  • Trainer D Simcock 27% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£34 in the last 3 years at Yarmouth – Late Change his only runner on the card tonight
  • Jockey J Spencer 22% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£33.60 in the last 12 months at Yarmouth

Wednesday Stats Runners

Brighton

R Hannon 21% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£23.55 in the last 3 years…

14:10 – Big Baby Bull & Embrace The Moment

15:40 – Elysium Dream

16:40 – Shoyd

P Cosgrave 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£24.14 in the last 3 years…

16:10 – Watch Tan

Chepstow

E Johnson-Houghton 34% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£16.43 in the last 3 years…

16:30 – Camomile Lawn

Kempton

A Atzeni 26% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£31.67 in the last 3 years…

18:40 – Nawar

19:10 – Gleeful

19:40 – Elasia

Pontefract

R Whitaker 26% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£12.83 in the last 3 years…

15:20 – Totally Magic

17:25 – Round The Island

Yarmouth

L Dettori 50% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

17:50 – Machell Place

Sligo

D P McDonagh 5 wins & 9 placed from 16 for a 31% win & 88% place strike rate in the last 3 years…

17:30 – Markus Twain

18:30 – Mutaabeq

19:00 – Khalaab

20:30 – Zarena

A Slattery 3 wins from 3 in the last 3 years, a 100% winning strike rate…

18:00 – Sharjah

20:30 – Rip Rocks Paddy Ok


MONTHLY RESULTS….

8/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +6pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -10.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts

Tuesday 7th August

NAP Jay Kay 16/1 (sky – 3 places if 6+ runners) – Ayr 19:50 – 1pt e/w Lost -2pts

Both Logi and Ziarah have been holding their form well and Equitant and Up Sticks And Go are both capable of further improvement so at first glance you would have to say Jay Kay, who is yet to fire so far in 2018 (finished last of 11 when last seen in June) looks to have a difficult task ahead.

That said, his last race was a Class 2 over a mile and he drops back in to a Class 4 over 7 furlongs for today’s race so he should find this a little easier. Furthermore, he has an excellent course record of 6 wins & 6 placed from 16 runs, of which 3 wins & 4 placed from 10 came over today’s trip and has been dropped a couple of lbs since his last run so is now just 3lbs above last winning mark.

His trainer Karl Burke has posted 3 wins & 2 placed from 10 runners in the last 12 months at Ayr for a 30% win & 50% place strike rate and the booking of Ben Curtis is a positive – a 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£161.27 in the last 12 months when riding for the trainer.

Given the opposition he may not win this race but to me 16/1 with three places available looks too big a price for a runner who boasts a 75% place strike rate at the course and as such I am happy to take a chance on him stepping up on his two previous runs so far this season.


Tuesday Stats Runners

Catterick

R Fahey 21% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£18.22 in the last 3 years…

14:05 – Commander Solo

Nottingham

M Channon 17% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£57.23 in the last 3 years…

17:50 – Dr Smolder

Roscommon

D Russell 3 wins & 1 placed from 4 in the last 3 years over fences, a 75% winning strike rate…

17:30 – Osco Mosco

18:00 – Crack Of Thunder

18:30 – Crezic

G Elliott 4 wins from 7 in the last 3 years in bumpers, a 57% winning strike rate…

20:40 – Just A Boy

D J Mullins 4 wins & 2 placed from 10 in the last 3 years over hurdles, a 40% winning strike rate…

19:05 – Cocoroco

19:35 – Rosserk Abbey


MONTHLY RESULTS….

7/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -16.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts

Monday 6th August

NAP Miss M 5/2 (PP) – Windsor 17:30 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

Miss M beat a 70 rated rival by three lengths over course and distance last week, with the rest of the field a further eight lengths behind. She carries a 6lbs penalty today but races for the in-form William Muir stable and meets a field that is more quantity than quality so looks more than capable of notching up a quickfire double over track and trip.

Betsalottie has done most of his winning on the all-weather but his sole turf victory came over course and distance and he has made the frame in four from six at Windsor so it would be no surprise to see the John Bridger runner in the mix again, while Doctor Jazz has scope for improvement now pitched in to handicap company and he completes the shortlist.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

6/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -14.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts

Sunday 5th August

NAP Berkshire Royal 5/4 (PP) – Chester 15:30 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Jabbaar has made the frame in five from six at Chester and all three turf victories have come over the same trip as he encounters here today, however he carries top-weight and was well held off his current mark when last seen so looks to be up against it today.

Richard Fahey runs two with Indomeneo boasting five wins from eleven on turf but is untested over a trip this far, while Gabrial’s King is proven over the trip and is potentially well-handicapped but hasn’t won since April 2017. Preference of the two would be the latter but he still appears a risky proposition as he seemingly needs everything to drop right in order to win.

Gossip Column has won three from five this season but was six lengths behind Berkshire Royal when they met last time out and it is the Andrew Balding runner, who was only two lengths behind yesterday’s runaway Gordon Stakes winner Cross Counter when last seen, is taken to come out on top again today. Arriving here in good form, with winning form over course and distance, and racing for a trainer who does well with his runners on The Roodee I expect a big run from Berkshire Royal and for that reason he is the NAP despite the odds being shorter than I would usually tip.


Sunday Stats

D Skelton 10 wins & 7 placed from 29 in the last 2 weeks, a 34% winning strike rate… and 29% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£32.21 in the last 12 months at Market Rasen…

14:00 – Ezenak

14:35 – Café Au Lait

15:10 – Mrsrobin

15:40 – Ange Des Malberaux

16:15 – Alizee Javilex

16:50 – Premier Rose

17:20 – Longhouse Sale

Chester

13:50 T Dascombe has won 4 of the last 6 renewals & runs Jensue

14:25 T Dascombe won this race last year

15:00 Kimberella won this race LY, R Fahey and K Ryan have both won this race twice in the last 10 years


MONTHLY RESULTS….

5/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -12.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts

Saturday 4th August

NAP Sun Maiden 9/4 (B365) – Goodwood 15:00 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • 12 length winner at Salisbury on first run of the season & 3rd in the Ribblesdale next time out (2nd won the Group 1 Nassau Stakes earlier this week)
  • Sir M Stoute has won this race for the last two years & 5 times in the last 10 years

NB Melodic Motion 9/2 (sky) – Newmarket 14:05 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • Yet to fire this season but placed twice at Group level last season and is 2 wins from 3 over today’s trip (last career win came over course and distance)

3B Oeil De Tigre 14/1 (sky – 7 places) – Goodwood 13:50 – 1pt e/w +2.5pts 

  • 3 wins from 3 at Goodwood, 2 over today’s trip
  • Jockey Sophie Ralston on board for the above 3 wins, overall record of 5/1/8 when riding the 7-year-old & 32% winning strike rate in the last 12 months when riding for the trainer

Goodwood

150 – Oeil De Tigre 14/1 e/w (B365 – 5 places) *12/1 & 7 places available with sky 2nd

225 – Melting Dew 9/2 (PP) 2nd

300 – Sun Maiden 9/4 (sky) Lost

340 – George Bowen 14/1 e/w (PP – 6 places) 4th

415 – no selection

450 – Restive Spirit 5/2 (B365) Lost

525 – Boots And Spurs 40/1 e/w (PP – 4 places)


In-form Trainers

J Quinn 9 winners & 5 placed from 27 in the last 2 weeks, a 33% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£31.38…

330 Doncaster – Alexis Carrington Lost

340 Goodwood – Reputation Lost

400 Thirsk – Je Suis Charlie Lost

435 Thirsk – Captain Jameson Lost

545 Doncaster – Lady Willpower

Sir M Prescott 9 winners & 8 placed from 32 in the last 2 weeks, a 32% winning strike rate…

245 Chelmsford – Rude Awakening 2nd

320 Chelmsford – Done Deal Lost

615 Lingfield – Mirabai

A Watson 6 winners & 7 placed from 21 in the last 2 weeks, a 28% winning strike rate…

240 Newmarket – Quiet Waters Lost

605 Lingfield – Full Suit


In-form Jockeys

T Ladd 4 wins & 1 placed from 5 on turf in the last 2 weeks, an 80% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£12.25…

150 Goodwood – Dark Shot 4th

525 Goodwood – Boots And Spurs

E Greatrex 9 wins from 30 in the last 2 weeks…

240 Newmarket – Quiet Waters Lost

425 Newmarket – Hyanna WON (SP 5/1)

500 Newmarket – Liva Lost

R Havlin 9 winners from 33 & level stakes profit of +£17.67 in the last 2 weeks… and has 8 rides at Chelmsford today


Saturday Stats Runners

Doncaster

R Varian 28% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£52.25 in the last 3 years…

A Atzeni 27% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£73.53 in the last 3 years…

They team up with…

15:30 – Willie John WON

16:05 – To Dibba 2nd

16:40 – Laugh A Minute WON

Sir M Stoute 38% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£32.25 in the last 3 years…

15:30 – Hidden Depths 2nd

S Bin Suroor 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

16:05 – Commander Cole WON

16:40 – Top Score 2nd

Hamilton

T Easterby 25% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£28.25 in the last 3 years…

18:50 – Nuns Walk

19:50 – Regal Mirage

20:20 – Ayton


MONTHLY RESULTS….

4/8/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -3.5pts 

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -10.5pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +117.91pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +729.59pts