Aintree 2019

I am away on honeymoon while the Aintree Festival is on so it’s unlikely there will be any selections until I return. That said, I have made my way through the key race stats for every race over the 3 day festival – hopefully they will help find a few winners.

Aintree Festival – Day 1 Stats

Manifesto Novices Chase

  • 9 of the 10 winners contested The Arkle (4 winners) or the JLT (5 winners)
  • 9 of the 10 winners were prominent racers
  • Prior Grade 1 winners have provided 4 winners from 11 runners in the last 7 years
  • The last 9 runners were all rated 150+
  • All 10 winners came in to the race on the back of a defeat last time out
  • All 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting (biggest odds winner was 11/2)
  • P Nicholls has had 12 runners in 10 years, 3 favourites and 8 less than 11/2 but is yet to have a winner                                         

Doom Bar Anniversary 4yo Juvenile Hurdle

  • 15 of the last 17 winners raced at Cheltenham (12 of which raced in the Triumph)
  • Since upgrade in 2006, 7 Triumph winners have contested this race, producing 4 winners and 3 seconds
  • French-bred horses have won the last 4 renewals and 8 of the last 11
  • Alan King has had 4 winners and a 2nd from 9 runners

Betway Bowl

  • 24 or the last 35 winners had raced in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham
  • 12 of the last 21 winners finished in the top 4 in The King George on Boxing Day
  • 4 of the last 5 winners had won The King George
  • 7 of the last 9 winners were favourite or 2nd favourite
  • 4 of the last 5 winners were the top-rated in the race
  • Paul Nicholls and David Pipe have good records in this race

Aintree Hurdle

  • 7 of the last 9 winners finished in the top 4 of the Champion Hurdle, however only 1 of the last 17 to finish 2nd in the CH has gone on to win this race
  • Only 5 mares have run in 13 years, producing 2 winners
  • The last 7 winners were all prior Grade 1 winners
  • Every British-trained winner had raced at The Cheltenham Festival
  • 9 of the last 18 winners had won at The Aintree Festival before

Foxhunters Chase

  • 10 of the last 14 winners had previously raced over the Grand National fences
  • 19 of the last 26 winners were favourite of second favourite
  • The last 8 winners that missed Cheltenham won or finished 2nd last time out
  • 6 of the last 11 winners contested the Foxhunters at Cheltenham

Red Rum Handicap Chase

  • 6 of the last 9 winners missed The Cheltenham Festival
  • 6 of the last 17 winners raced in the the Grand Annual
  • 15 of the last 19 winners were rated 139 or lower, only 1 of the 19 winners were rated above 143
  • Only 2 of the 19 winners carried more than 11st 2lbs
  • Only 1 winning favourite in the last 10 years
  • 9 of the last 10 winners lost last time out

Aintree Festival – Day 2 Stats

Alder Hey Handicap Hurdle

  • Nicky Henderson novices have won 3 of the last 6 renewals
  • Novices have won 9 of the last 17
  • 14 of the last 17 winners were rated 139 or lower
  • Only 3 of the 17 winners carried more than 11st 2lbs
  • 5 of the last 10 winners had raced at Cheltenham

Betway Top Novices Hurdle

  • 11 of the last 20 winners contested the Supreme, 9 of which finished in the top 6 (5 of the 6 finished 2nd in the Supreme)
  • Nicky Henderson has won this race 5 times since 2010 (all 5 contested the Supreme)

Betway Mildmay Novices Chase

  • 14 of the last 17 winners raced at Cheltenham, 6 of which came from the RSA
  • Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times, including the last 2 renewals
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times
  • 34 of the 38 winners had won at least twice over fences
  • 5 of the last 7 winners contested the Kauto Star

JLT Melling Chase

  • The last 17 winners had contested the QMCC (11 winners) or the Ryanair (6 winners)
  • The last 7 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 earlier in the season
  • 21 of the last 28 winners had won or placed at a prior Aintree Festival
  • 7 of the last 11 winners contested the Maghull Novices Chase as a novice

Topham Chase

  • N Henderson has won this race 5 times, P Bowen has won this race 4 times
  • 36 of the 38 winners were prominent racers
  • The last 5 winners all raced at Cheltenham
  • 10 of the last 15 winners had previously run over the Grand National course

Sefton Novices Hurdle

  • 7 of the last 11 winners missed Cheltenham, the other 4 all raced in the Albert Bartlett
  • 21 of the last 24 winners had won at least twice over hurdles

Aintree Festival – Day 3 Stats

Gaskells Handicap Hurdle

  • 7 of the last 13 winners were novices
  • 5 of the last 8 winners raced at Cheltenham (particularly in the Coral Cup)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 11st or more
  • 7 of the last 8 winners were rated 137 or more
  • 19 of the last 21 winners had raced at least 4 times in the season
  • Look for horses aged between 6 and 8

Mersey Novices Hurdle

  • 14 of the last 20 winners raced at Cheltenham – 4 raced in the Supreme, 9 raced in the Ballymore
  • All 4 Ballymore winners in the last 20 years to have contested this race have won this race
  • Since the race became a Grade 1 the favourite has won 4 of the 5 renewals, with the 2nd favourite being the other winner
  • 10 of the last 13 winners had won three or more times over hurdles
  • 6 mares have taken part in the last 11 years, 4 have made the frame

Maghull Novices Chase

  • Look for horses that contested the Arkle (All 3 Arkle winners that have raced here since 2008 have won this race)
  • 7 of the last 10 winners were French-bred
  • 7 of the last 22 winners finished 1st or 2nd in the Kingmaker at Warwick
  • Only 1 winner from 22 went off at odds of over 6/1
  • P Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 placed from 23 runners since 1999

Ryanair Stayers Liverpool Hurdle

  • 14 of the last 15 winners raced at Cheltenham, 11 of which raced in the Stayer Hurdle
  • 13 of the last 15 winners had previously won at the Aintree Festival
  • 13 of the last 15 winners were either favourite or 2nd favourite
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had previously won over 3miles or further

Betway Handicap Chase

  • Only 2 of the last 15 winners carried more than 11st
  • 9 of the last 11 winners were rated between 134 and 140
  • Novices have won 3 of the last 7 renewals
  • 6 of the last 7 winners had previously won over 3miles or further
  • P Hobbs has had 3 winners since 2010

Grand National

  • The last 9 winners were all having their first run in the Grand National
  • Look for horses aged 8 or 9 and rated between 147 and 156
  • 25 of the last 27 winners had previously won a 3mile chase
  • 6 of the last 14 winners had previously won over 3m 4f or further
  • 24 of the last 27 winners had won less than 7 times over fences
  • 15 of the last 20 winners were Irish-bred
  • Only 4 of the last 34 winners carried over 11st
  • Only 1 of the last 23 winners were aged over 11