Saturday 9th November

NAP Cepage 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 14:05 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Last seen finishing a close-up second to Frodon in a Grade 3 race at Cheltenham almost 12 months ago, Cepage returns to action in what looks to be a winnable race. He has an excellent record fresh, posting a win and two very close seconds when returning from a break of 180+ days, and both career victories have come on soft or good-to-soft ground. Furthermore, his trainer Venetia Williams has had an excellent start to the season, posting four wins from thirteen over the last two weeks. Cepage is her only runner today and I would be a little surprised if it weren’t a winning one.

NB Charmant 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 13:30 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

The Last Day comes in to this race with a 50% winning strike rate over two miles and was last seen in March winning comfortably, yet all his career wins have come in very testing conditions and his record fresh isn’t great so I am happy to look elsewhere.

Charmant was a dual hurdles winner but looked much more at home over larger obstacles last season, winning three from five. The seven-year-old has won his last three when returning from a break, has won on ground ranging from heavy through to good, and is again partnered with jockey Brian Hughes who was in the saddle for the three afore-mentioned victories and has a solid strike rate both at the course and for the trainer.


ITV Racing

13.30 Charmant

13:50 Danse Idol

14:05 Cepage

14:25 Solomon Grey (e/w)

14:40 Vive Le Roi

15:00 Fusil Raffles

15:35 The Young Master (e/w)


Horses I am looking forward to seeing today

*Not tips – just notebook runners

Naas

12:00 – Blackbow

14:50 – Longhouse Poet

15:25 – Tornado Flyer

Aintree

12:20 – JohnBB

15:15 – Roksana

Wincanton

13:50 – Empeirente Reconce

15:00 – Fusil Raffles

15:35 – White Moon


Wincanton

Paul Nicholls has posted 83 winners from 230 runners since the beginning of 2016, an impressive 36% winning strike rate, and has had plenty of successes at this meeting in-particular:

12:40 – won 4 of the last 5 renewals (runs Flic Ou Voyou & Starsky)

13:15 – 3 wins since 2011 (runs Santemilion)

13:50 – 3 wins since 2011 (runs Danse Idol)

14:25 – 5 wins since 2011 (runs If You Say Run – who won the 13:50 last season)

15:00 – 4 wins since 2009 (runs Grand Sancy & Chrstopher Wood)

15:35 – 4 wins since 2010 (runs Present Man who has won this race for the last 2 years, and Give Me A Copper)

16:10 – 3 wins since 2012 (runs Confirmation Bias)


Other Stats

Aintree

C Tizzard 6 wins from 30 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 20% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£58.50…

13:30 – Lillington

14:05 – The Russian Doyen

Kelso

K Dalgleish 12 wins from 37 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 32% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£34.01…

12:10 – Sidi Ismael

15:05 – Highway Companion

W Coltherd 6 wins from 23 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 26% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£29…

13:55 – Pookie Pekan

Wincanton

A J Honeyball 3 wins from 7 in the last 3 years in bumpers at the course…

16:10 – Mont Segur


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

9th November 2019: -4pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -8pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

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