28th October

An excellent weekend on the horses with 4 winners from 7 main selections…. feels like it has been a long month but we are finally back in a positive and a quick look at the beginning of the week suggests a low-key finish to October in terms of main selections.

Monday Shortlisted Runners

Ayr 13:35 – Ebony Jewel 9/4 (Whill)

Ayr 14:10 – Chateau Robin 2/1 (B365)

Ayr 14:45 – Finaghy Ayr 10/1 (B365)


Monday Stats Runners

Ayr

I Jardine 23% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:00 – Animore

15:20 – Frame Rate

B Hughes 32% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£41.08 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:10 – Chateau Robin

N Richards 37% winning strike rate in the last 3 years in bumpers at the course…

15:55 – Legal Beagle


27th October

Aintree

14:25 Stoney Mountain 7/2 (B65) – 1pt win WON +3.5pts

  • Won the 12.40 race on this card last season

  • 2 wins from 2 over todays’ trip

  • Proven in testing conditions having won on soft and heavy ground

  • Trainer H Daly in good form, 4 wins from 12 in the last 2 weeks

15:35 Django Django 9/2 (sky) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

  • Soft ground winner over hurdles

  • Decent enough chase debut when 3rd at Uttoxeter earlier in the month, will benefit for the step back up in trip (twice a winner over 3 miles over hurdles)

Longchamp

13:00 – Alson 15/8 (sky) – 1pt win WON +1.88pts

  • Unbeaten in two over a seven furlong trip and an excellent 2nd to Victor Ludorum over a mile in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardare (finishing ahead of Armoury), just fading in the final 100m so the drop back in trip looks a big positive

14:50 – Technician 4/1 (B365) – 1pt win WON +4pts

  • Course and distance winner last time out, winning the Prix Chaudenay with P C Boudot in the saddle

  • Reported by the trainer to be in excellent form at home & conditions reported to be ideal for a follow-up

Lucky 15 – 1.5pts total (B365 best price) +6.56pts

Alson 13/8 WON

Technician 4/1 WON

Stoney Mountain 7/4 WON

Django Django 4/1 Lost


In-form Trainers & Jockeys

B Ellison 6 wins from 6 in the last 2 weeks over jumps, a 100% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£34.71…

Aintree – Forest Bihan WON

G Harris 3 wins from 6 in the last 2 weeks over jumps, a 50% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£6.25…

Wincanton 13:00 – Searching Lost

F O’Brien 6 wins from 19 in the last 2 weeks, a 31% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£11.01…

Aintree 12:40 – Imperial Alcazar WON

Wincanton 13:35 – Templepark WON

Jockey B R Jones 5 wins from 10 in the last 2 weeks over jumps, a 100% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£7.63…

Wincanton 13:00 – Searching  Lost


Stats Runners

Wincanton

E Lavelle 27% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£26.38 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:00 – Shiroccan Role

15:55 – Namib Dancer

P Nicholls 35% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

14:10 – Zyon

15:20 – Sit Psycho

H Cobden 30% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£23.62 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:00 – Jaytrack Parkhomes

14:10 – Zyon

15:20 – Sit Psycho

P Nicholls 35% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:35 – Soldier Of Love

14:45 – Coup De Pinceau & Captain Cattistock

Galway

Aengus King 40% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:50 – Braize

Wexford

J J Slevin 25% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +Eur24.75 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

12:50 – Gabbys Cross

14:00 – Champagne Paddy

14:35 – Bitofalright

D Queally 3 wins from 3 for a 100% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:25 – Uisce Solas

W Mullins 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

15:10 – Ego Des Mottes & Stones And Roses

H De Bromhead 32% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +Eur18.18 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

15:45 – Deans Road & Mount Hanover

W Mullins 45% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

12:50 – Jazzaway

14:35 – Herbiegoesbananas

J J Codd 4 wins & 5 placed from 10 for a 40% winning strike rate in the last 3 years in bumpers at the course…

16:20 – Miss Aloud


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

27th October 2019: +14.94pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +2.94pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +8.69pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +673.9pts

26th October

Cheltenham

14:00 Rockys Treasure 14/1 (B365 – 4 places) – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

  • 4 wins & 2 2nds from 8 over fences

  • Twice won on return from a break

  • Wins have come on good ground but has placed 2nd in a Grade 2 race (behind Santini) on soft ground and has also placed on soft over hurdles

15:10 Saint Calvados 4/1 (betfred) – 1pt win WON +4pts

  • Won on 1st run of the season for the last 3 years

  • Career wins on good-to-soft, soft and heavy ground

  • All wins over trips of around 2 miles

15:45 Neverbeen To Paris 8/1 (B365) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

  • Excellent 2nd at Stratford earlier in the month, on 1st run since switching yards, finishing his race off strongly and closing all the way to the line – extra distance he encounters here looks a positive based on that run


Kelso

K Dalgleish 29% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£31.26 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

13:15 – Highway Companion

15:35 – Gennady

17:15 – Murphys Law

W Coltherd 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£27 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

13:50 – Warendorf

D Cook 29% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£21.08 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

15:00 – Vintage Clouds

16:10 – Treshnish


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26th October 2019: +2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -12pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.75pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +670.96pts

25th October

CHELTENHAM

14:00 Braid Blue 3/1 (sky) – 1pt win 2nd -1pt

  • Arrives here looking for a 5th win in a row, following 2 victories over 20f & 2 victories over 24f earlier in the year. Is unbeaten in 5 with R Johnson in the saddle (jockey has a 34% winning strike rate overall in the last 12 months when riding for G Elliott), has won on return from a break and also won on debut so should be ready to go on 1st run of the season

15:10 Liosduin Bhearna 11/1 (B365 – 4 places) – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

  • Placed in two bumpers before being sent over hurdles and placing on first two runs over obstacles, before improving to win on last two runs of last season – the last of which being particularly impressive. Has more on his plate returning off a 12lbs higher mark, but looks one to keep onside and races for a stable and jockey who have started the season in fine form

15:45 Dinons 7/2 (B365) – 1pt win  Lost -1pt

  • Course and distance winner over the smaller obstacles at this meeting last season, and arrives in excellent form having won three from five since tackling fences including an 11 length demolition of rivals at Limerick earlier in the month. Proven on the ground and over the trip he can put it up to likely favourite Wholestone

16:20 Master Debonair 3/1 (B365) – 1pt win 2nd -1pt

  • Beat a number of promising horses (including Thyme Hill & McFabulus) in a Cheltenham bumper last November and although couldn’t land a blow at either the Cheltenham or Aintree festivals in the spring he has the potential to go on to big things now going over hurdles

17:30 Whoshotthesheriff 8/2 (Whill) – 1pt win  Lost -1pt

  • Has won three from four since going over hurdles and is unbeaten in two since joining Philip Kirby. A winner over similar trips to today but also with proven stamina over further, he has twice won on return from a break and looks to have the potential to take this step up in Class in his stride


Friday Stats Runners

Cheltenham

G Elliott 13% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£35.89 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

14:00 – Braid Blue

17:30 – Ballydunblaze

Doncaster

J Fanshawe 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£57.87 in the last 3 years at the course…

14:25 – Volcano Bay

15:00 – Cobnut

16:45 – Olympic Conqueror

S Bin Suroor 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course…

16:45 – Passion And Glory

Newbury

J Gosden 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course…

14:15 – Mishriff

L Dettori 28% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£16.63 in the last 3 years at the course…

14:15 – Mishriff

W Buick 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£32.94 in the last 3 years at the course…

15:25 – Trueshan

16:00 – Masham Star

16:35 – Whelans Way


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

25th October 2019: -5pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -14pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.75pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +670.96pts

24th October

NAP Duke Debarry 16/1 (PP) – Carlisle 16:05 – 1pt win WON +16pts

  • Prior course winner having won on soft ground over 19 furlongs last April (has also won over further, on good ground)

  • Both career wins have come in Class 4 races, both coming on return from a break

  • Trainer B Ellison 100% winning strike rate (6 wins from 6 runners) in the last 2 weeks over jumps

  • Jockey B Hughes 4 wins from 9 in the last 2 weeks over fences – all 4 coming for trainer B Ellison

NB The Kings Baby 5/1 (B365) – Southwell 15:50 – 1pt win 2nd -1pt

  • Reverts back to hurdles on return from a five-month absence, having won twice over fences when last seen in May – has twice won on return from a break

  • Both career hurdles victories have come over similar trips to today, both on good-to-soft ground

  • Trainer H Whittington 8 wins from 21 for a 38% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, with level stakes profit of +£52.36


Thursday Stats Runners

Carlisle

B Ellison 3 wins from 10 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 30% winning strike rate…

16:05 – Duke Debarry

V Williams 4 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 28% winning strike rate…

16:05 – Air De Rock

S Twiston-Davies 3 wins from 10 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 30% winning strike rate…

14:25 – Good Boy Bobby

S Twiston-Davies 5 wins from 10 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 50% winning strike rate…

13:50 – Champagne Noir

Ludlow

F O’Brien 5 wins from 20 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 25% winning strike rate…

15:10 – Propert Ticket

16:45 – Global Tour

K Lee 5 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 36% winning strike rate…

15:40 – Storm Control

T Vaughan 5 wins from 14 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 36% winning strike rate…

16:15 – Glimpse Of Gold

Southwell

T George 9 wins from 31 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 29% winning strike rate…

14:45 – Rock On Rocco

15:20 – Fontley House

H Whittington 8 wins from 21 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 38% winning strike with level stakes profit of +£52.36…

15:50 – The Kings Baby

Thurles

G Elliott 11 wins from 38 in the last 3 years over fences at the course, a 29% winning strike rate…

13:45 – Darling Miss

14:15 – Thisonesforollie

W Mullins 16 wins from 46 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course, a 35% winning strike rate…

14:50 – Rebel Og


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

24th October 2019: +15pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.75pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +670.96pts

23rd October

NAP Be More 4/1 (B365) – Newmarket 16:10 – 2pts win WON +8pts

Has progressed well over the summer, putting in decent performances particularly in testing conditions with both career victories coming over similar trips on soft ground. William Buick an interesting jockey booking.


In-Form Jockeys

N De Boinville 4 wins from 8 in the last 2 weeks, a 50% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£15.25…

W14:20 – Bold Record

W14:55 – Floresca

B R Jones 5 wins from 11 in the last 2 weeks, a 45% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£6.88…

W12:45 – Field Exhibition

W15:30 – Simon The Great


Wednesday Stats Runners

Worcester

Dr Newland 24% winning strike ratein the last 3 years over fences at the course…

14:20 – Yccs Portocervo

N Hawke 28% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£41 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

12:15 – The Boola Bee

12:45 – Heart Of Kernow

N Twiston-Davies 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£18.50 in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

12:45 – Robinshill

13:15 – Chinensis

P Hobbs 33% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£43.99 in the last 3 years over hurdles at the course…

14:20 – Larkbarrow Lad

15:20 – Big Shark


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

23rd October 2019: +8pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -24pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.75pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +670.96pts

21st October

Pontefract

Looks to be a tough card at Pontefract, potentially made even tougher with conditions… however I like a challenge so here are my selections for each race of the card

14:20 Ambyfaeirvine 11/2 e/w (Whill, BV) Lost

14:50 Hidden Spell 4/1 (B365, BV) WON

15:20 Rake’s Progress 7/1 e/w (BV – 4 places) Lost & Edgar Allan Poe 22/1 e/w (BV – 4 places) NR

15:50 Grand Rock 2/1 (B365) Lost (only 6 runners but I also expect Sir Arthur Dayne to outrun his 20/1 odds)

16:20 King Power 9/4 (BV, PP) Lost

16:50 Taxmeifyoucan 6/1 (B365) Lost

17:20 Our Little Pony 12/1 e/w (B365, BV) WON


In-Form Trainers & Jockeys

R Beckett 8 wins from 26 in the last 2 weeks, a 31% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£41.50…

Ponte 14:20 – Maximilius

Ponte 15:50 – Wyclif

K Burke 6 wins from 19 in the last 2 weeks, a 31% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£10.32…

Ponte 14:20 – Guipure & Hooroo

Ponte 14:50 – Hidden Spell

Ponte 15:20 – Power Player

Ponte 16:20 – Fox Fearless

Southwell 18:00 – Finery

Southwell 18:30 – Praxidice & Angel Palanas


Monday Stats Runners

Pontefract

R M Whitaker 26% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£26.58 in the last 3 years at the course…

14:50 – Cindy Looper

17:20 – Penny Pot Lane

M Channon 24% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£18.50 in the last 3 years at the course…

15:50 – Sir Arthur Dayne

Sir M Stoute 33% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course…

16:20 – Dante’s View

Jockey J Fanning 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£41.14 in the last 3 years at the course…

15:20 – Bo Samraan

15:50 – Freyja

16:20 – Vibrance

Jockey S De Sousa 32% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course…

15:50 – Sir Arthur Dayne

16:20 – King Power

Southwell

K Burke 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£87.50 in the last 3 years at the course…

18:00 – Finery

18:30 – Praxidice & Angel Palanas

Jockey B Curtis 17% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£44.75 in the last 3 years at the course…

18:00 – Finery

18:30 – Praxidice

20:00 – Risk Mitigation

20:30 – Ventura Glory

Windsor

S C Williams 18% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£27.83 in the last 3 years at the course…

14:30 – Agent Shiftwell