Saturday 30th March

The last blog for a week or so… off on honeymoon on Monday… so lets see if we can finish the month/begin the flat season with a winner or two!!

NAP Equilateral 7/2 (B365) – Doncaster 13:50 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

  • Won on debut, won on 1st run last season and also on return from mis-season break last summer
  • Course and distance winner
  • Trainer Charlie Hills 3 wins & 1 2nd from 5 in the last 2 weeks
  • Andrea Atzeni 24% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course

NB Auxerre 4/1 (B365) – Doncaster 15:35 – 2pts win WON +8pts

  • Won last 3 races, all over a mile – should be capable of winning here before stepping in to Group company
  • Jockey James Doyle 4 wins from 9 in the last 2 weeks and 31% winning strike rate in the last 12 months when riding for the trainer

3B Gulf Of Poets 9/1 (PP) – Doncaster 14:25 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • Won on 1st run in 2017 and 2018
  • Last win came in a class 2 off a mark of 91, just 1lbs higher today
  • Jockey Nathan Evans level stakes profit of +£39.05 in the last 12 months when riding for the trainer

Meydan

12:15 – Muntazah 4/5 (boyles) 3rd

12:50 – Ispolini 5/2 (BV) 2nd

13:30 – Blue Point 8/11 (coral) WON

14:05 – Divine Image 11/4 (coral) Lost

14:40 – X Y Jet 3/1 (Whill) WON

15:20 – Almond Eye evs (Whill) WON

16:00 – Rey De Oro 10/3 (PP)  Lost

16:40 – Capezzano 9/2 (PP)  Lost


My Grand National race preview will be up over at http://picksfromthepaddock.co.uk/ in the next 24-48 hours


All The Aintree stats are up on the dedicated Aintree page https://simplyhorsetips.wordpress.com/aintree-2019/


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

30th March 2019: +4pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -2.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +2.52pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +670.01pts

Wednesday 27th March

NAP Baron Run 4/1 (BV) – Southwell 17:05 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • 1 win and 1 placed effort from 2 over course and distance (has made the frame in 5 from 8 at the course, 2 of the unplaced efforts came over 6f)
  • trainer K Burke 19% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£72.75 in the last 3 years at the course
  • jockey Simon Walker 1 win and 1 placed effort from 2 rides in the last 2 weeks

NB Russian Royal 20/1 (PP) – Market Rasen 17:20 – 1pt e/w Lost -2pts

  • two wins from 4 runs at the course
  • bottom-weight, gets 7lbs and above from all rivals
  • 10lbs claimer on board, 27% winning strike rate when riding for the trainer
  • trainer M Hammond 5 wins from 17 in the last 2 weeks, a 29% winning strike rate
  • jockey 2 wins from 3 in the last 2 weeks, a 67% winning strike rate


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

27th March 2019: -4pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -6.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts

Tuesday 26th March

NAP Glinger Flame 5/2 (B365) – Hexham 15:40 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/2) +7pts

Has placed in all four career runs to date. Beaten just a neck by promising Tom Lacey runner Johnbb on hurdles debut and only a length behind the winner when 3rd last time out (2nd has won since). Cheekpieces added for handicap debut, racing off what looks to be a lenient opening mark, and with trainer Nicky Richards having 7 winners from 20 in the last 3 years over hurdles he looks to have a great chance of gaining his first career victory today.

NB Ratfacemcdougal 11/2 (sky) – Hereford 16:30 – 2pts win WON (SP 15/8) +11pts

Beat a subsequent Grade 2 winner on penultimate run and latest run can be easily forgiven as it came over a trip too far. Dropped 4lbs, dropped down in Class and stepped back in trip, better can be expected for a runner from a stable who has had five winners from 11 runners in March, at odds of 66/1, 25/1, 10/1, 8/1 and 9/2 – three of which came with Max Kendrick in the saddle.


Tuesday Stats Runners

Hereford

A King 5 wins from 12 in the last 3 years over hurdles, a 42% winning strike rate…

14:30 – Tiffin Top WON

Hexham

N Richards 7 wins from 20 in the last 3 years over hurdles, a 35% winning strike rate…

15:40 – Glinger Flame WON

Wolves

W Haggas 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

18:30 Just Benjamin 2nd


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26th March 2019: +18pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -2.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts

Monday 25th March

NAP Miranda 7/4 (PP) – Wincanton 16:15 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Won well at Ludlow on debut before an extremely impressive course and distance victory at the beginning of the month, where she travelled a dream and beat a decent field without coming off the bridle. A similar run today would make her extremely tough to beat.

NB Mines A Pint 5/2 (B365) – Wincanton 15:15 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Beat 1/8 favourite Graasten at Plumpton on chase debut, travelling smoothly and jumping fluently throughout. Races off bottom weight and gets over a stone from the main market principals.

3B First Link 4/1 (BV) – Lingfield 15:00 – 2pts win WON +8pts

Won 2 in a row at Lingfield before struggling in Listed company at Chelmsford last time out. Now returns to Lingfield, back in a Class 5, racing off joint-bottom weight for a trainer who has 3 wins & 3 placed from 11 in the last 12 months at the course.

Second Collection 15/2 (B365) – Wolves 18:45 – 2pts win WON +15pts

Course and distance winner last time out, beating Sundiata who won at Lingfield on Saturday. Drawn well in 4 and is partnered with Hollie Doyle who boasts level stakes profit of +£38.01 in the last 12 months at Wolves.


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

25th March 2019: +19pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -20.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts

Sunday 24th March

NAP Aussie Valentine 7/4 to place top 6 (sky) – Naas 16:10 – 4pts Lost -4pts

  • Horse has placed (top 3) in this race for the last 3 seasons

  • 7lbs claimer on board today

  • Trainer 4 wins & 2 placed from 6 in the last 2 weeks, a 67% win & 100% place strike rate

*(5/2 available with B365) to place top 4 – I am sticking with 6 places just to be safe


Other Bets

Carlisle

16:00 – Du Soleil 9/4 (B365) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

17:10 – Finaghy Ayr 13/2 (B365) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

Exeter

14:40 – Almost Gold 4/1 (B365) – 1pt win 3rd -1pt

15:15 – Choix Des Armes 6/1 (sky) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

15:45 – Diable De Sivola 5/2 (BV) – 1pt win 2nd -1pt

16:20 – Fortunate George 7/1 (laddys) – 1pt win Lost -1pt

Naas

15:05 – Zander 4/1 (sky) – 1pt win Lost -1pt


Sunday Stats Runners

Carlisle

V Williams 33% winning strike rate with chasers in the last 3 years at the course…

14:55 – Elixir Du Gouet

16:00 – Du Soleil

J Candlish 33% winning strike rate with chasers in the last 3 years at the course…

16:00 – Granville Island

Exeter

L Kelly 4 wins from 7 for a 57% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences at the course…

15:45 – Diable De Sivola

N Williams 42% winning strike rate with chasers in the last 3 years at the course…

15:45 – Diable De Sivola

P Nicholls 39% winning strike rate with hurdlers in the last 3 years at the course…

15:15 – Choix Des Armes

Naas

R Moore 38% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course…

14:00 – Empire State

15:05 – San Andreas

15:40 – Delphinia

16:45 – Amadeo Modigliano

17:20 – Ferretti


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

24th March 2019: -11pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -39.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts

Saturday 23rd March

NAP Friend Or Foe 3/1 (betfred) – Newbury 14:40 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • Solid winner at Taunton in December
  • Early favourite for the Fred Winter at Cheltenham but didn’t make the final field, can gain compensation for that here

NB Champagne City 5/1 (B365) – Kelso 14:25 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

  • CD winner
  • Finished less than a length behind Crooks Peak when 2nd last time out (possibly would have won with a better jump at the last)

3B Claud And Goldie 11/1 (sky) – Kelso 15:00 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

  • Winner last time out, solid 2nd at Kelso on penultimate run
  • Trainer S E Forster 38% winning strike rate with chasers in the last three years at the course

ITV Racing Selections

Kelso 13:50 – Kupatana (WIN) WON (SP 2/1)

Newbury 14:05 – Rock My Style (E/W) Lost 

Kelso 14:25 – Champagne City (WIN) 2nd

Newbury 14:40 – Friend Or Foe (WIN) Lost 

Kelso 15:00 – Claud And Goldie (WIN) 3rd

Newbury 15:15 – She Might Bite (WIN) Lost 

Kelso 15:35 – Worthy Farm (WIN) Lost 


Saturday Stats Runners

Kelso

S E Forster 38% winning strike rate with chasers in the last three years at the course…

15:00 – Claud And Goldie

A M Thomson 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£37.37 with chasers in the last three years at the course…

15:00 – Capard King

16:10 – Diamond Rock

K Dalgleish 33% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£32.26 with hurdlers in the last three years at the course…

15:35 – Taxmeifyoucan

Bangor

H D Daly 37% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£25.75 with hurdlers in the last three years at the course…

14:50 – Flashjack

P Nicholls 44% winning strike rate with chasers in the last three years at the course…

17:10 – Unioniste

Newbury

N Henderson 28% winning strike rate with hurdlers in the last three years at the course…

14:40 – Chaparral Prince

15:15 – She Might Bite

16:25 – El Kaldoun


In-form trainers & jockeys

B Pauling 8 wins from 25 in the last last 2 weeks, a 32% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£26.38…

Bangor 14:15 – Shanroe Tic Tec

R Menzies 3 wins from 9 in the last last 2 weeks, a 33% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£10.50…

Kelso 15:35 – Tomkevi

Kelso 16:10 – Halcyon Days

D Maxwell 4 wins from 10 in the last last 2 weeks, a 40% winning strike rate…

Bangor 17:10 – Unioniste

C O’Farrell 5 wins from 16 in the last last 2 weeks, a 31% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£19.83…

Kelso 15:35 – Tomkevi

Kelso 16:10 – Halcyon Days

W Hutchinson 8 wins from 25 in the last last 2 weeks, a 32% winning strike rate…

14:40 – Elysses

15:15 – Sixties Belle

15:50 – Valdez

17:00 – Hotter Than Hell


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

23rd March 2019: -6pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -28.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts

Friday 22nd March

NAP Morning Vicar 2/1 (PP) – Newbury 13:45 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

NB Valhalla 13/2 (B365) – Newbury 14:20 – 2pts win Lost -2pts


Friday Stats Runners

Musselburgh

D Jacob 4 wins from 4 rides in the last 3 years over hurdles, a 100% winning strike rate…

14:30 – Oromo

K Dalgleish 6 wins from 9 runners in the last 3 years over fences, a 67% winning strike rate…

15:05 – Sporting Press

K Dalgleish 5 wins from 9 runners in the last 3 years in bumpers, a 55% winning strike rate…

17:15 – Mrs Davies

Newbury

N Henderson 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:45 – Morning Vicar

C Tizzard 31% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£23.79 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:20 – Valhalla

16:00 – Kings Walk

P Hobbs 21% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£74.00 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:25 – Vango De Vaige

16:30 – Zanza


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

22nd March 2019: -4pts

MARCH PROFIT/LOSS: -22.91pts

FEBRUARY PROFIT/LOSS: -6.32pts

JANUARY PROFIT/LOSS: +11.75pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2019 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.43pts

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +55.81pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +672.92pts