Friday 30th November

Newbury

12:10 – Strong Glance 3/1 (PP) Lost

12:45 – Kupatana 9/4 (PP) *NAP* – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

13:20 – Morning Vicar 9/4 (BV) 3rd

13:50 – La Bague Au Roi 6/4 (coral) WON

14:25 – Willoughby Court 2/1 (sky) NR

15:00 – Momello 6/1 (B365) Fell

15:35 – Vive Le Roi 9/1 e/w (BV – 4 places) WON (SP 14/1)


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

30/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +7.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +73.31pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +684.99pts

Thursday 29th November

Think No Hassle Hoff (Ayr 14:25) and Barbados Blue (Warwick 12:35) both have decent chances tomorrow, but both are a little short in the betting considering the opposition they are up against, so it’s a ‘no-bet’ day on Thursday.

Thursday Stats Runners

Ayr

D W Whillans 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£64.75 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:45 – Dali Mail

15:00 – Side Of The Road

Taunton

P Nicholls 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:25 – Southfield Stone

13:00 – Southfield Torr & Greaneteen

13:35 – Worthy Farm

14:40 – Darling Maltaix

H Fry 30% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:35 – Rosemary Russet

W Greatrex 41% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:40 – Bodes Well

R Dickin 50% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

15:10 – Bally Lagan

Warwick

N Henderson 38% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£20.79 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:35 – Barbados Blue

13:45 – Malton Rose

H Daly 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:35 – Royal Jonquille

13:45 – Hastrubal

14:15 – Dauphiness


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +9.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Wednesday 28th November

NAP He’s A Goer 5/1 (B365) – Hereford 13:05 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • Won over a shorter trip on penultimate run, & only beaten a length over today’s race distance when running under penalty last time out
  • Tom Lacey 3 winners & 2 placed from his last 6 runners
  • Tom Lacey and Richard Johnson 35% winning strike rate and level stakes profit of +£27.38 when teaming up in the last 12 months

Wednesday Stats Runners

Hereford

H Oliver 37% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:35 – Mountain Chimes

A King 5 wins from 9 in the last 3 years over hurdles, a 55% winning strike rate…

14:05 – Yesandno

14:35 – Sula Island

Wetherby

D Skelton 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:15 – Charming Dream

13:50 – Up The Drive

14:50 – Global Ruler

D Skelton 48% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:20 – Savello


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +9.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Tuesday 27th November

NAP Ecu De La Noverie 7/2 (B365) – Lingfield 14:00 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Travelled strongly throughout the race and put in a solid round of jumping when winning at Newbury earlier in the month, showing his stamina by rallying to get up on the line after being headed on the run-in. This longer trip shouldn’t be an issue as he has won over this trip in heavy ground when trained in France – in fact with many of his rivals unproven over the trip it could be a distinct positive so he is the NAP choice on an otherwise poor day of racing.


Tuesday Stats Runners

Lingfield

W Greatrex 33% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:00 – Don Des Fosses

A J Honeyball 3 wins from 4 runners for a 75% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:00 – Duhallow Gesture

15:30 – Urca De Lima

C Tizzard 33% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

T Cannon 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

Southwell

T D Barron 23% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

13:10 – Magical Molly Joe

D Carroll 23% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£24.63 in the last 3 years…

13:10 – Pindaric

K R Burke 20% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£95.50 in the last 3 years…

15:10 – Mametz Wood

Sedgefield

P Bowen 44% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:50 – Dr Dunraven


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +11.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Monday 26th November

NAP Mia’s Storm evens (B365) – Kempton 14:05 – 2pts win WON +2pts

Mia’s Storm will likely go off at a short price for this four-runner affair and with three wins from four over the trip, a good win last time out and a love for fast ground, it’s not too difficult to see why. She is the highest rated of the four and has won at Listed level over fences so should be capable of another victory here.

Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden have both been in excellent recent form and they team up with If You Say Run who was a ready winner at Wincanton when last seen. Today sees a step up in trip but she has won over three miles in a point-to-point so it would be dangerous to dismiss her completely.

Another who should make a bold show is Culture De Sivola who has a good record when fresh, is two from two over this trip and races for Nick Williams who has a 36% winning strike rate in the last twelve months at the course. Any rain would aid her chances but she has won on good-to-soft so could pick up the pieces if the favourite falters.

NB Robinshill 6/1 (B365) – Ludlow 13:40 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Robinshill has two wins from four over course and distance, both gained with Zac Baker in the saddle and one of these coming in this race last season. He was outclassed when last of five in the 2018 renewal of The Arkle Trophy at The Cheltenham Festival but returns to a Class 3 where has won three from five and races off a 2lbs lower mark than when last successful.  A pipe-opener at Kempton last month should see him spot on for today so with conditions and trip in his favour he looks the one to beat.

Tornado In Milan has also won this race before, winning the 2016 renewal. He could only manage fourth last season and is 5lbs higher than his last victory, but does have a good record at the course so is unlikely to be too far away at the finish.

Vivaccio has two course and distance victories to his name but hasn’t won since 2014 and would perhaps prefer softer conditions, while Sternrubin will be a danger if turning up on a good day, although hasn’t been the most consistent and was only sixth of seven last time out.


Monday Stats Runners

Kempton

C Longsdon 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:35 – Bestwork

N Henderson 37% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:10 – No Hiding Place

Ludlow

H Daly 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:20 – Finalshot

N Henderson 33% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

15:20 – Thomas Campbell

T Vaughan 25% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:05 – Monsieur Arkadin

Musselburgh

K Dalgleish 29% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:45 – Triangle Rock

13:20 – Cuckoo’s Calling

K Dalgleish 67% winning strike rate (4 wins from 6 runners) in the last 3 years over fences…

15:00 – Monsieur Co

A M Thomson 30% win & 80% strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:55 – Buckled


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

26/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: even pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +13.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Sunday 25th November

NAP Night Of Sin 7/2 (B365) – Exeter 14:50 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

Night Of Sin didn’t have much to beat when winning a three-runner affair by over forty lengths at Taunton last time out as his main rival unseated his jockey at the sixth. That said, Nick Williams’ grey put in a lovely round of jumping and at the same time showed he copes with fast ground, readily coming clear to win with ease. Furthermore, Lizzie Kelly has a 43% winning strike rate in the last 12 months at the course and has been in the saddle for all three career wins so with further progression likely I am hopeful of another victory here today.

Admiral’s Secret hasn’t been since April but arrives here chasing a hat-trick and would have to be considered if fully fit on return, while New Millennium finally got his nose in front over fences at the fourth time of asking but has been steadily improving so could still be competitive off a 6lbs higher mark.

NB De Name Escapes Me 3/1 (B365) – Navan 15:00 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

De Name Escapes Me returned from a seven-month summer break with an impressive victory at Naas earlier this month, travelling strongly before asserting between the final two hurdles and quickly pulling four lengths clear of the eventual runner-up. He won’t have any issues with the extra distance he encounters today, he has built up an excellent partnership with jockey Mark Walsh (teaming up to win three from five) and the forecast rain will only help his cause so he is taken to defy an 8lbs rise and bag another victory here today.

Salty Boy makes his handicap debut following victory last time out and has been progressing well, while Pass The Ball has won three of his last four over hurdles and should give another good account despite a career-high mark. If the rain stays away then both would have to be considered in with each-way chances.


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

25/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +13.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Saturday 24th November

 NAP Stoney Mountain 9/4 (B365) – Ascot 12:20 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

NB Little Bruce 7/2 (PP) – Haydock 12:40 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

3B Oscar Rose 6/1 (BV) – Ascot 13:30 – 2pts win Lost -2pts


Saturday Shortlisted Runners

Ascot

14:05 – Politologue 6/5 (BV) WON

14:40 – If The Cap Fits 5/6 (B365) WON

Haydock

13:15 – River Wylde 4/1 (PP) Lost

13:50 – Cliffs Of Dover 7/1 (PP – 4 places) Lost

14:25 – Captain Cattistock 9/2 (Whill) Lost

15:00 – Native River 3/1 (BV) 2nd

15:35 – Captain Redbeard 3/1 (Whill) Lost

Huntingdon

14:15 – Truckers Highway 9/2 (BV) WON


In-form Jockeys

H Cobden 12 wins & a 36% winning strike rate in the last 2 weeks…

Haydock

12:10 – Grand Sancy

13:15 – Magic Saint

13:50 – Cliffs Of Dover

14:25 – Captain Cattistock

15:00 – Clan Des Obeaux

15:35 – Braqueur D’Or

H Skelton 12 wins & a 31% winning strike rate in the last 2 weeks…

Haydock

12:10 – Denmead

12:40 – Sam Red

13:15 – Crucial Role

13:50 – Ch’Tibello


Saturday Stats Runners

Haydock

P Nicholls 38% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:15 – Magic Saint

15:00 – Clan Des Obeaux

15:35 – Braqueur D’Or

H Fry 40% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:50 – Black Mischief


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

24/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +17.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Friday 23rd November

Struggled to find a stand-out bet today, despite there looking to be some good races on the cards. Here are my thoughts on a few races – no main selections today.

Ascot 13:00

There was a lot to like about Wenyerreadyfreddie’s course and distance victory last time out. He put in some excellent jumps and came clear in impressive fashion – a similar run should see him win again but the odds of 5/6 reflect that. WON

Ascot 14:05

Thomas Darby’s win at Cheltenham last month was a pretty good performance all things considered, and with the 2nd and 7th winning next time out the form seems to be holding up well. Didtheyleaveuouttoo looks the most likely challenger, although Commanche Red was impressive on hurdles debut and could also get involved if coping with the drop back in trip. Overall I’d still side with the favourite although 6/4 looks a bit short considering the opposition. 2nd

Ascot 15:15

At 11/2 Battle Of Shiloh could be an each way bet to nothing as he boasts an excellent record when fresh, he has raced with credit in higher grades, is a multiple winner at this level over similar trips and with similar ground condition, and has Noel Fehily booked for the ride, a jockey with a 31% winning strike rate in the last 12 months when riding for trainer Tom George. 3rd

Catterick 13:50

A real headscratcher of a race for me. S J Smith has a 48% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£35.92 in the last 3 years over fences at the course & she won the race last year with Delusionofgrandeur…. But runs two who would both have to considered in with chances for very different reasons.

The Paddy Pie has placed twice from two runs over fences, the latest of which when just getting caught on the line at Wetherby earlier this month. That was his first run over 3 miles so he has plenty of scope for improvement, and he is the choice of jockey Danny Cook. The bigger field should help, but I’m not 100% convinced that the extra furlong will suit. 3rd

Straidnahanna doesn’t have the best record when fresh and has pulled up in two of his last three runs (won the other). He is, however, unbeaten in 4 at the course, 3 over this trip, and is partnered with Henry Brooke who has been in good form in recent weeks. Lost


 Friday Stats Runners

Ascot

N Henderson 27% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:30 – Wenterreadyfreddie

R Johnson 25% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:05 – Thomas Darby

15:50 – Flying Tiger

R Walford 2 wins & 1 placed from 4 in the last 3 years over fences…

15:15 – Le Boizelo

Catterick

J J Quinn 3 wins & 3 placed from 7 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:15 – Je Suis Charlie

J Candlish 30% win & 70% place strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:20 – Canadian George

S J Smith 48% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£35.92 in the last 3 years over fences…

13:50 – The Paddy Pie & Straidnahanna

Ffos Las

T George 37% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:15 – Air Navigator

M G Nolan 30% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£22.25 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:10 – Bredon Hill Leo

13:40 – Tea Time On Mars

14:50 – Sneaky Feeling


 

Thursday 22nd November

Great to get a decent priced NAP winner yesterday, although if anyone looks back at the race they will see that we were lucky as The Kings Writ looked to have it in the bag until falling at the last. Thankfully both horse and jockey came out of it fine.

Had a look through Thursday’s cards and there were a couple of initial interest at Market Rasen, but ultimately nothing that stood out enough to be considered as a main selection…. So just the shortlisted runners and stats runners for today.


Shortlisted Runners

MR12:55 – Hillcrest Fire

MR13:25 – Aaron Lad

MR14:00 – Drovers Lane


Stats Runners

Market Rasen

Dr Newland 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:25 – Aaron Lad

G P McPherson 31% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£17.30 in the last 3 years over fences…

14:00 – Kayf Blanco

Wincanton

P Nicholls 39% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:15 – Zubayr

14:15 – Rhythm Is A Dancer

P Nicholls 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

13:45 – Capeland


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

21/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +17pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +23.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Wednesday 21st November

NAP Flaming Charmer 7/1 (B365) – Chepstow 15:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 17/2) +17pts

  • Won this race last season, just 1lbs higher today
  • Won 2nd time out in 2013, 2016 & 2017
  • 2 wins & 2 placed from 6 at the course
  • Trainer C Tizzard 14 winners (25% winning strike rate) & level stakes profit +£19.31 in the last 2 weeks
  • Jockey H Cobden 31% winning strike rate & level stakes profit +£19.31 in the last 12 months at the course

Wednesday Stats Runners

Chepstow

P Nicholls 29% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£17.91 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:10 – Storm Arising

13:40 – Easyrun De Vassy

14:45 – Kings Inn

R Johnson 31% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£33.50 in the last 3 years over fences…

14:15 – Victarion

15:20 – Atirelarigo

Warwick

N Henderson 42% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£23.79 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

12:30 – Laughing Luis

13:30 – She Might Bite

14:35 – Malachite


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS

21/11/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +17pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +23.9pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts