Tuesday 30th October

NAP Man Of The North 40/1 (PP) – Bangor 15:45 – 1pt e/w Lost  -2pts

Hasn’t shown much in three novice events but tackles a new trip off a welter-weight on handicap debut for a stable who have had four wins and three placed efforts with their runners over hurdles in the last three years at Bangor, posting level stakes profit of +£36.13 over the same time period. Furthermore, he is partnered with Harry Bannister who has made the frame in five from seven over hurdles in the last two weeks and has a 70% place strike rate in 2018 when riding for the trainer. A risky proposition given what he has shown so far, but worth a go at the odds when considering the trainer and jockey stats above.


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

30/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -58pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +65.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +677.09pts

Monday 29th October

NAP Hochfield 5/2 (betfred) – Leicester 13:55 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Hochfield won three times in 2017 and although hasn’t been able to get his nose in front so far this season he has put up some gallant efforts in defeat, twice finishing second in Listed contests in September, one of which was when a neck second to subsequent Caulfield Cup fourth Duretto. Overall this is the best form on offer and he has got better with each race over the course of the season so it could finally be his turn to return to the winners’ enclosure today.

Aasheq has placed in his last two races and should appreciate the forecast better ground conditions but still needs to prove his stamina over this trip, while Twin Star won last time out but steps up in class for today’s race so the bigger danger looks to be Not So Sleepy who has posted two solid seconds since stepping back up to today’s trip and has been left on the same mark so can make his presence felt again.

NB Bill Cody 13/2 (B365) – Redcar 14:15 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Amazing Michele was an impressive winner at Newcastle when last seen but had struggled to land a blow in earlier runs on turf so isn’t guaranteed to follow up here, while Sea Youmzain has won three times over what has been a productive summer but all victories have come on good-to-firm ground and he struggled in more testing ground last time out.

Nuits St Georges improved to win last time out but steps up in both class and distance and both trainer and jockey arrive here struggling for winners so preference is for bottom-weight Bill Cody who has an excellent record at Redcar, posting two wins and a second from three runs over course and distance, proving he handles softer ground conditions when second last time out. Today sees a step up in class but there are enough question marks over his rivals to think that his form at the course and his proven stamina over the trip can see him gain another victory here today.


Monday Stats Runners

Chelmsford

S Bin Suroor 35% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

16:45 – Al Mikdam

Leicester

P Hanagan 26% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£30.10 in the last 3 years…

13:20 – Mr Spirit

14:30 – Grise Lightning

15:05 – Third Time Lucky

Redcar

W Haggas 45% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

12:35 – Red Hut Red


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

29/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -56pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Sunday 28th October

NAP Settimo Milanese 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 13:15 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Dr Richard Newland continues in fine form, posting eight winners from his last twenty runners, and looks to have a great chance of bagging another winner with his runner Settimo Milanese. The six-year-old has struck up a great partnership with in-form jockey Charlie Hammond, teaming up to win their last two runs in convincing fashion, beating a couple of decent yardsticks in Lively Article (a winner on hurdles debut) and Vinnie Lewis (who won next time out) at Southwell earlier in the month. Capable of further progression, he can notch the hat-trick here.

Bon Chic won this race last season and is only 3lbs higher this time around, although put in a disappointing run when last seen at Perth in September so the bigger danger looks to be Ready And Able who has previously won on return from a break and also arrives looking to make it three wins in a row, although needs to prove he stays this longer trip.

NB Beat That 5/2 (PP) – Aintree 13:50 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Beat That won his first two this season before coming up short at Chepstow a couple of weeks back when fourth behind the re-opposing Exitas. The result doesn’t tell the full story as he was just making his way in to contention when almost unseating his rider five from home and he benefits from a 7lbs swing in the weights for today’s race so should be able to reverse the form with Exitas and get back to winning ways.

Buywise represents an in-form stable but may prefer more cut in the ground while Double Ross is yet to make his presence felt in six prior runs at the course so the danger could come from Ballybroker Breeze who won over course and distance in the summer and has a decent record when fresh.   

Haul Away 7/2 (B365) – Aintree 14:25 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Haul Away took his winning streak to four when winning at Fontwell earlier in the month and although was hard at work to get his nose in front he lost momentum by hitting the second-last hurdle pretty hard and despite this was staying on strongly at the line so will appreciate the extra furlong he encounters here and should be capable of defying the 3lbs rise.

Henry Daly and Richard Johnson are both in great form and have an excellent strike rate when teaming up so Lygon Rock, who has made the frame in all five hurdles runs to date, looks a decent each-way alternative on return from a five month break and wind surgery.

The shortlist is completed by Byron Flyer who returns to jumps following a recent hat-trick of victories on the flat and although hasn’t been seen over obstacles since April 2017 he had won five from eleven over hurdles so wouldn’t be winning out of turn. 

Cloudy Dream 3/1 (coral) – Aintree 15:00 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

The recent stable form would have to be a concern but apart from that Cloudy Dream would look to have an excellent chance of going one better than when a close-up second to Smad Place in this race last season. He has been the model of consistency throughout his career, has an excellent record when fresh and has two wins and two placed efforts from five over similar trips to today.

In contrast, Paul Nicholls has his stable firing in the winners so Frodon, who also has a good record over the trip, looks to be the most likely challenger. This will be his first run since having a wind op and he will likely have bigger targets later on in the season but nevertheless could run a big race.

Others to consider include Javert who steps up in grade but has won every race over fences that he has completed, and Theo who has shown remarkable improvement and consistency since joining Dr Richard Newland last summer and arrives in his bid for a hat-trick of victories.

Lucky 15 – 1.5pts total win (B365 prices) -1.5pts

Settimo Milanese 7/2 – Aintree 13:15 2nd

Beat That 5/2 – Aintree 13:50 2nd 

Haul Away 7/2 – Aintree 14:25 Lost

Cloudy Dream 5/2 – Aintree 15:00 3rd


Sunday Stats Runners

Aintree

N Henderson 24% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:15 – Follow The Bear

14:25 – Haul Away

I Williams 21% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£26.50 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:15 – Sliding Doors

14:25 – Byron Flyer

Wincanton

P Nicholls 41% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:00 – Bubble O’Clock

13:35 – Stradivarius Davis

15:20 – Rhythm Is a Dancer

16:30 – Volpone Jelois

P Nicholls 29% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

14:10 – Darling Maltaix

14:45 – Ridgeway Flyer

O Sherwood 28% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:35 – Pontresina

15:55 – Cheeky Rascal

Galway

H De Bromhead 19% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£18.50 in the last 3 years over fences…

13:40 – Surf Instructor

Wexford

C O’Dwyer 50% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

15:10 – Celebrity Status


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

28/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -9.5pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -52pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts


 

Saturday 27th October

NAP Awalii 9/2 (PP) – Kempton 19:45 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • 2-length winner over course and distance last time out (3rd won next time out)
  • Trainer 5 winners & 6 placed from 15 in the last 2 weeks
  • Jockey 13 wins from 26 rides at Kempton in the last 12 months

Saturday Shortlisted runners

Cheltenham

14:00 – Doing Fine 14/1 (PP – 5 places) Lost

14:35 – Redicean 2/1 (BV) 2nd

15:10 – Foxtail Hill 7/2 (B365) Lost

15:45 – King Calvin 14/1 e/w (sky – 5 places) Lost

16:20 – De Name Evades Me 11/2 e/w (sky – 2 places) 2nd

16:55 – Cubomania 11/4 (PP) WON

17:30 – Strong Glance 7/1 e/w (B365) WON

Doncaster

13:45 – Breath Of Air 5/1 (B365) 3rd

14:15 – Beat Le Bon 2/1 (sky) 2nd

14:55 – Western Duke 13/2 e/w (B365) NR

16:05 – Magna Grecia 13/8 (B365) WON

Saint Cloud

14:45 – Norway 6/4 (laddys) Lost

15:20 – Klassique 3/1 (PP) 2nd


Saturday Stats Runners

Kelso

K Dalgleish 35% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£35.98 in the last 3 years over hurdles…

13:50 – Goldencard

15:35 – Chanceanotherfive & Chookie Royal

16:40 – One Night In Milan

Newbury

J Gosden 25% winning strike rate & level stake profit of +£20.78 in the last 3 years…

13:10 – Spanish Aria

14:20 – Weekender

14:50 – Azano

15:20 – Muchly

W Haggas 24% winning strike rate & level stake profit of +£17.34 in the last 3 years…

13:10 – Shrewdness & Wannie Mae

13:40 – Luxor

14:20 – Young Rascal

14:50 – Fanaar

15:20 – Maktabba

15:55 – Ice Gala

C Appleby 32% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

15:55 – Ceratonia


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

27/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -42.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Friday 26th October

Cheltenham

14:00 – Grageelagh Girl 12/1 e/w (sky) Lost

14:35 – Sister Sibyl 12/1 e/w (B365 – 2 places) 2nd

15:10 – First Assignment 8/1 e/w (sky – 5 places) WON 

15:45 – Lil Rockerfeller evens (sky) WON

16:20 – Thomas Darby 7/2 (Whill) WON (SP 11/2)

16:55 – Cornish Warrior 5/1 (PP) Lost

17:30 – Magic Dancer 11/2 (sky) *NAP* 2pts win 2nd -2pts

  • 2 wins from 2 runs at Cheltenham (1 over today’s trip)
  • Trainer 3 wins & 2 placed from 9 in the last 12 months at the course
  • Jockey 2 wins & 1 placed from 4 in the last 12 months at the course

Friday Stats Runners

Doncaster

Sir M Stoute 39% winning strike rate & level stake profit of +£30.35 in the last 3 years…

14:25 – Solid Stone

15:00 – Derevo

S Bin Suroor 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

13:20 – Alfurat River

R Varian 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

13:50 – Just My Type

14:25 – Nabbeyl & Emirates Knight

15:00 – Motaway

15:30 – Victory Angel

16:45 – Jamil

Newbury

W Haggas 25% winning strike rate & level stake profit of +£21.34 in the last 3 years…

13:10 – Montatham

13:40 – Current Option

14:15 – Kentucky Kingdom

14:50 – Improve

Kempton

A Atzeni 30% winning strike rate & level stake profit of +£24.52 in the last 3 years…

18:15 – Goodwood Showman

18:45 – Sash

19:15 – Warrior Goddess

20:15 – Augenblick

Cheltenham

G Elliott 15% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£59.23 in the last 2 years over hurdles…

14:00 – Make My Heart Fly

15:10 – High Expectations & Water Sprite

17:30 – Silver Star

F O’Brien 19% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£26.75 in the last 2 years over fences…

14:55 – Bells n Banjos


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

26/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -40.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Thursday 25th October

NAP Mudallel 5/1 (B365) – Chelmsford 19:45 – 2pts win 3rd -2pts

  • 1 win & 1 2nd over course and distance
  • Solid 2nd at Newcastle last time out, beaten half a length by an impressive runner having first run on AW but over two lengths clear of 3rd
  • All 3 career wins have come over this trip on Ploytrack

NB Sonnet Rose 11/2 (PP) – Chelmsford 18:45 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

  • 2 wins & 2 3rds in 4 runs over course and distance
  • 3 wins & 7 placed from 13 runs over the trip (23% win, 77% place strike rate)
  • Trainer level stakes profit +£36.75 on AW in the last 12 months

Thursday Stats Runners

Carlisle

S R B Crawford 45% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:05 – Schmidt

M A Barnes 31% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£29.50 in the last 3 years over fences…

15:40 – Carrigdhoun

J Candlish 29% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over fences…

17:20 – Showem Silver

Ludlow

H D Daly 26% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:10 – Panic And Run

15:20 – Pique Rock

D Skelton 25% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

15:20 – Bold Image

16:25 – Cock A Doddle Doo

Southwell

S Bowen 39% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£41.78 in the last 3 years over fences…

14:55 – Early Retirement

N Henderson 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

16:35 – Royal Ruby


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

25/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -38.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts

Wednesday 24th October

NAP Gunfleet 9/2 (B365) – Worcester 15:00 – 2pts win NR

Gunfleet has won his last two over hurdles, taking his career tally to three wins from five, and should be well schooled for his chase debut. He proved he has the stamina for this type of trip when winning over three miles at Doncaster when last seen and is again partnered with in-form jockey Leighton Aspell who has ridden 5 winners from 14 rides in the last 2 weeks. Add to this the trainer record of 5 wins & 7 placed from 15 (33% win & 75% place strike rate) with chasers in the last 3 years at the course and we look to have a likely contender for victory here today.

Baden has won two of his last three but hasn’t been seen since May and usually needs a race or two to find top gear, so the bigger danger could be Overland Flyer who has finished second in both chase runs to date but does have winning form over similar trips when tacking smaller obstacles and races for Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden who have been in excellent form in recent weeks.

NB Smart Boy 15/2 (coral) – Fontwell 14:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP 7/1) -2pts

Smart Boy has been the model of consistency since joining Jack Barber, posting figures of 12321 with the most impressive of these being first time up last season when winning by 30 lengths at Plumpton, on first run for almost ten months. With that in mind the return from a seven-month break shouldn’t cause issue. The fact that he is proven over the trip and is again partnered with jockey Nick Scholfield who was in the saddle for victory last time out and has had 5 winners from 17 rides at the course in 2018 suggests that a big run is anticipated.

The biggest danger looks to be Canyon City who improved for the step up in trip to win by 11 lengths last time out, travelling strongly and coming clear with relative ease when rounding the final bend. A 7lbs rise is partially off-set by Bryony Frosts’ 3lbs claim and the trainer has been in excellent form in recent weeks so I can see Canyon City having a lot of supporters, however he hasn’t looked the obvious type to follow up and has to step back a furlong today so I feel may prove vulnerable for win purposes.

Another to mention is Wind Place and Sho who won over a shorter trip last time out but is yet to prove himself over this trip and has an extra 3lbs to carry today.

3B Truckers Highway 15/2 (PP) – Worcester 14:25 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

Peppay Le Pugh has been the model of consistency since tackling fences, posting figures of 22211F2, although has been upped 2lbs for a second-placed finish last time out, while Mercian King is two from two over course and distance when tackling fences but was all-out to gain victory last time out and has gone up 6lbs. I’dliketheoption has won two of his last three but put in a couple of sketchy jumps when second at Newton Abbot last time out and has to give upwards of 8lbs away to his rivals so preference is for Truckers Highway who won this race at odds of 33/1 last year and returns off a 5lbs lower handicap mark in attempt to win it again. Now a class 3 race (was a class 4 last year) this looks slightly tougher but he runs well fresh, his trainer has a good record at the course and three of his six career wins have come over this trip so he looks to have a decent chance of retaining his crown.


Wednesday Stats Runners

Fontwell

R Johnson 8 wins & 5 placed from 17 in the last 3 years over fences, a 47% winning strike rate…

14:15 – New Millennium

15:25 – Never Learn

A King 34% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

14:50 – Giveaway Glance

B Frost 5 wins from 12 in the last 3 years over fences, a 41% winning strike rate…

16:35 – Quinto

Newcastle

J Gosden 37% winning strike rate in the last 3 years…

17:45 – Duneflower

20:45 – Panmolle

Worcester

E Lavelle 5 wins & 7 placed from 15 in the last 3 years over fences, a 33% win & 75% place strike rate…

15:00 – Gunfleet

A King 31% winning strike rate in the last 3 years over hurdles…

16:10 – Peggies Venture

17:20 – Wilde Spirit


In-form trainers & jockeys

S Crisford 5 wins & 5 placed from 14 in the last 2 weeks…

Newcastle 19:45 – Trolius

Newcastle 20:45 – Ring Dancer

O Sherwood 4 wins from 5 over jumps in the last 2 weeks…

16:10 – Captain Peacock

H D Daly 4 wins from 11 in the last 2 weeks…

Worcester 15:35 – Rapper

Worcester 17:20 – Royal Jonquille

K Bailey 3 wins & 2 placed from 9 in the last 2 weeks…

Worcester 16:10 – Commodore Barry

Fontwell 17:10 – Rose To Fame

Jockey M Griffiths 4 wins & 1 placed from 7 in the last 2 weeks…

Fontwell 15:25 – Sonoftheking

Jockey L Aspell 5 wins from 14 in the last 2 weeks…

Worcester 15:00 – Gunfleet

Worcester 16:10 – Captain Peacock


MONTHLY PROFIT/LOSS:

24/10/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: -34.5pts 

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.25pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -6.75pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +8.5pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +123.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +735.09pts