Saturday 23rd June – Royal Ascot Day 5

NAP Dreamfield 7/2 (B365) – Ascot 17:00 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

NB The Tin Man 8/1 (B365) – Ascot 16:20 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

3B Queen Of Bermuda 7/1 (B365) – Ascot 15:40 – 2pts win  Lost -2pts


2.05 Chesham Stakes – Listed – 7 furlongs

  1. 25/29 winners came from the first four in the betting
  2. 12/20 winners had won on their previous run – which was their only run prior to this race
  3. A O’Brien won this race in 2016 & 2017 and has won it 4 times in total

Mark Johnston has been in great recent form, posting twenty-nine winners in the last two weeks including two at Royal Ascot. He runs three in the race with preference for the once-raced Natalie’s Joy who hosed up by six lengths on debut at Goodwood in May, finishing very strongly and creating a lasting impression. I am not a huge fan of backing a runner at such a short price after just one run but she is the obvious choice based on her debut run and a similar display today would see her extremely tough to beat.

The biggest danger looks to be Nate The Great who also won well on debut, beating a subsequent winner in the process, and will have learnt a lot for the experience so is open to plenty of improvement.

Beyond Reason was a respectable second on debut, finishing behind the re-opposing New Winds, but improved second time out to win by four lengths. This victory came on the all-weather at Kempton but she showed enough on debut to suggest she will also win races on turf so is another who could capitalise if the favourite disappoints.

Natalie’s Joy 11/8 (PP) Lost


3.05 Hardwicke Stakes – Group 2 – 1 mile 4 furlongs

  1. 4 year olds have won the last 10 renewals
  2. The favourite has won the last 8 renewals
  3. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race five times in the last 8 years and ten times in total

As the stats above show, Sir Michael Stoute usually has a decent horse lined up for this race and in Crystal Ocean has a runner who has won three of his last four, is unbeaten this season, is proven over the trip and will love the ground. He may not be much of a price but he will take some beating.

The most likely to challenge is Barsanti who has winning form over course and distance and will also enjoy conditions. He was only a half-length behind Idaho when second in this race last season but has been much more consistent than the Aidan O’Brien runner since and rarely runs a bad race so looks the most likely to chase home the hot favourite.

Crystal Ocean 8/13 (sky) WON


3.40 Windsor Castle Stakes – Listed – 5 furlongs

  1. Two of the last 3 runners up went off at 100/1
  2. 6/12 winners won at odds of 16/1 or more (16/1, 16/1, 20/1, 20/1, 33/1, 100/1)
  3. John Best has saddled a 100/1 winner and a 50/1 placed effort in recent years
  4. Mick Channon has a decent record in this race

Queen Of Bermuda was a decent second on debut, beating a couple of subsequent winners and finishing only a length behind Shades Of Blue who was third in the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes earlier this week. She followed this encouraging debut up with a couple of impressive victories at Thirsk and Windsor respectively, finishing strongly on both occasions, and the fillies allowance she gets could help to make all the difference here today.

Wesley Ward had a frustrating start to this years’ festival but got a winner on the board on Thursday with Shang Shang Shang and has another exciting prospect here with Moonlight Romance who was an easy winner at Belmont last time out, winning by six lengths without her jockey having to do much more than enjoy the ride. She is another who gets a fillies allowance and she will be a big danger if handling the occasion and the much bigger field she encounters today.

Chapelli was a SimplyHorseTips NAP when winning last week, taking her tally to two wins from two, and looks to be progressing well. As alluded to in an earlier preview Mark Johnston’s runners have been performing very well so she not without a chance and does look better than a 33/1 chance, although I think on this occasion may find a couple too good.

Others to consider for place purposes include Junius Brutus and James Watt who bring decent form in to the race.

Queen Of Bermuda 7/1 (B365) Lost


 4.20 Diamond Jubilee Stakes – Group 1 – 6 furlongs

  1. Previous Ascot form has been a key factor in recent years
  2. 13/23 winners had previously won at Listed or Group level earlier in the season
  3. Only 1 winner since 1990 had not previously won over 6 furlongs & 13/16 winners had previously raced over 7 furlongs at some point in their career prior to winning this race 

The Diamond Jubilee Stakes is the final Group 1 race of the five-day Royal Ascot meeting, gaining its Group 1 status in 2002, and for the last three renewals has been limited to horses aged four and over.

The early favourite is three-time Group 1 winner Harry Angel who has won five of his nine career runs and placed second in three of the other four. He travels strongly through his races and always looks visually impressive, yet all four defeats have come here at Ascot so there has to be some worry that he will once again find himself settling for minor honours. Add to this the dip form for trainer Clive Cox and there is enough doubt there for me to look elsewhere for the winner.

Redkirk Warrior has won over distances ranging from five to ten furlongs but has looked his best over today’s six-furlong trip, winning three from five which includes a Grade 1 win over the re-opposing Merchant Navy in March. He hasn’t been seen since but has won on return from a break on four separate occasions and with the in-form Frankie Dettori booked for the ride he could give our selection the most to think about.

Merchant Navy has switched to Aidan O’Brien following the aforementioned defeat to Redkirk Warrior and was an impressive winner on stable debut beating Spirit of Valour, Tasleet and Brando who all set the bar pretty high having all won at Group level during their respective careers. He will need to improve again if he is to win today but it would be no surprise to see him run in to the places.

Bound For Nowhere and City Light both arrive in top form and are proven over the trip, while Librisa Breeze has a good record at the course and all three are respected despite the early markets suggesting they are all likely to be fighting it out for the places.

That said, for our winner we are turning to last years’ winner The Tin Man who boasts a record of three wins from six over course and distance and can be considered a six-furlong, fast ground specialist as he has won eight from eleven over this trip when racing on good-to-firm ground. This race has been his target for the season and a victory at Listed level in May, on first run for seven months, will have put him spot on for today so a big run is expected.

The Tin Man 8/1 (B365) Lost


 5.00 Wokingham Stakes – Handicap – 6 furlongs

  1. 16/19 winners were aged 4 or 5
  2. 11/16 winners had only raced once or twice in the season prior to winning here

Dreamfield was a six-length winner on debut which he duly followed up with victory over a furlong further in a conditions race that has produced two subsequent winners (one being Top Score who won twice at Meydan including one race at Listed level). Injury meant he missed the whole of 2017 but returned this year with a commanding win over course and distance in a race that has already produced three subsequent winners and I feel that this horse is a potential Group horse in the making and will be extremely tough to beat today.

Out Do attempts to gain back-to-back victories in this race having battled well for victory last season. He hasn’t won since and although had a couple of decent races in Meydan over the winter he hasn’t looked his best in two runs since returning to the UK and I feel may struggle today.

Victory Angel has disappointed on two previous runs at Ascot but has a decent overall record over six furlongs and has won twice when being ridden by Silvestre De Sousa. He was only a length away from the winner when fourth last time out and a similar run could see him in the places.

Others with each way claims include Mr Lupton, Gilgamesh and Growl although for our winner we return to John Gosden’s Dreamfield.

Dreamfield 7/2 (B365) 2nd


5.35 Queen Alexandra Stakes – Conditions Race – 2 miles 5 ½ furlongs

  1. Willie Mullins won this race in 2012 & 2014 and has had 3 placed efforts in the last 3 years
  2. 14/23 winners had previously raced at Listed or Group level on the flat
  3. 21/27 winners went off at 8/1 or less

Willie Mullins runs Merie Devie, Renneti and Thomas Hobson in attempt to continue his excellent recent record in this race and although it may seem the obvious choice preference would have to be for the market leader Thomas Hobson who won the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last year before finishing second in this race just four days later. He arrives here this year on the back of six months away from the track but has run well fresh before and is partnered with Ryan Moore who rode him to victory in the Ascot Stakes last season so should take some beating.

Count Octave has done all his winning over shorter trips on the all-weather but has also put in some good runs in some strong races on turf (2nd to Stradivarius in the Queens Vase last year) so would have to be considered in with a chance if his stamina holds out over this much longer trip.

Pallasator has won at Group 3 and Group 2 level on the flat when racing for Sir Mark Prescott and has a recent Grade 2 hurdles victory to his name for Gordon Elliot so it would be no surprise to see a big run from the nine-year-old and he rates at the main danger to the favourite and looks a decent each way option at a reasonable price.

Thomas Hobson 6/4 (sky) Lost

Pallasator e/w 9/1 (PP – 4 places) WON


MONTHLY RESULTS….

23/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +52.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts

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