Friday 22nd June – Royal Ascot Day 4

NAP Alpha Centauri 7/2 (B365) – Ascot 16:20 – 2pts win WON +7pts

NB Sioux Nation 9/2 (B365) – Ascot 15:40 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

3B Main Edition 13/2 (B365) – Ascot 14:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/1) +14pts

2.30 Albany Stakes – Group 3 – 6 furlongs

  1. 10/16 winners won a maiden race last time out
  2. 8/16 winners had only raced once prior to competing in the Albany
  3. Mick Channon has a good record in this race

The betting market would have us believe that the Albany Stakes is likely to be won by one of the Aidan O’Brien duo Fairyland and Just Wonderful. Fairyland is unbeaten in two, following up a debut maiden victory with a comfortable two-length win at Listed level next time out, finishing ahead of stablemates Van Beethoven and Land Force, while Just Wonderful had to battle for victory but stayed on well and looks open to further progression given that was her first and only run to date. Both would have solid chances but u think this race is more open than the betting suggests.

La Pelosa won eased down by three lengths at Kempton on debut, beating Chaleur who went on to win next time out, and could be a danger if transferring that form from the all-weather to turf.

Main Edition is unbeaten in two, both over six furlongs, winning by over three lengths on both occasions. With The Johnston stable firing in the winners and James Doyle also in good form their runner looks the main threat to the two market principles.

Others to consider include Octave who finished five lengths behind Calyx (Coventry Stakes winner earlier this week) on turf debut but was still six lengths ahead of the rest and had earlier won on the all-weather, while Pretty Pollyanna won a maiden over six furlongs on debut and given the stats of the race looks a big price for a place.

Main Edition 13/2 (B365) WON

 3.05 King Edward VII Stakes – Group 2 – 1m 4 furlongs

  1. 17/23 winners had won earlier in the season prior to winning this race
  2. Irish trained runners have only won 1 renewal in the last 43 years
  3. Sir M Stoute, M Johnston and J Gosden all have good records in this race

Delano Roosevelt was a bit below-par in the Derby but had previously ran some great races in defeat, following a maiden victory with results of 3222 across various Group races. He is again up against a couple of highly regarded stablemates in Rotropovich and Guiseppe Garibaldi but is the choice of Ryan Moore and the market suggests it could be his turn for victory today.

Wells Farhh Go was thrown in at the deep end for his first run of the season and could only manage sixth in the Dante but won two from two last season, getting up to win the Group 3 Acomb Stakes in the final strides from James Garfield. The first seven of that race have gone on to win since so the form looks strong and better is expected here providing he sees out this longer trip.

Old Persian has already won twice this season and finished ahead of the re-opposing Highbrow when second to stablemate Key Victory on his other run so far this season so would have to enter calculations despite Key Victory putting in a below par run yesterday.

Raa Atoll is proven over today’s trip having won well at Leicester last time out. That came on good-to-soft ground but he had previously beat the re-opposing Elector on good-to-firm ground over ten furlongs and finished ahead of a couple of subsequent winners when second to Nordic Lights on debut so with form over the trip and on the ground I think we could be looking at another Gosden/Dettori winner.

Alternative Fact looked a decent prospect last season but put in a disappointing run in France on return last month and arrives here with a bit of a point to prove. It will be interesting to see how he fares at this new trip but with the stable struggling for winners he may be best watched today.

Raa Atoll 5/1 (Whill) Lost

3.40 Commonwealth Cup – Group 1 – 6 furlongs

  1. The Sandy Lane winner has gone on to win this race in 2 of the 3 renewals so far (won this year by Sands Of Mali)

Sioux Nation has won at the highest level, has a great record over the trip, won at the Royal meeting last year and all four of his career victories have come on good-to-firm ground so looks to have a lot in his favour. With Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore winning this race with Caravaggio last year and bagging a couple of winners yesterday I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sioux Nation go off as favourite and in truth looks tough to beat.

Sands Of Mali has won on both starts this season, beating Invincible Army, Emblazoned and Heartache in the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes when last seen. Invincible Army was only a nose away on the line and as a previous course and distance winner he could reverse that form today although they both look very closely matched.

Equillateral was an impressive eight length winner at Doncaster in May, beating Foxtrot Lady who has since won twice. Today sees a big step up in class but based on that performance last time out you have to think he’d be capable of getting involved. For me the biggest concern would be the trainer form given that Charlie Hills has only had one winner from forty runners over the last two weeks and for that reason I’m happy to look elsewhere.

Hey Jonesy is a personal favourite who gives his all in every race – however both trainer and jockey have been struggling for winners and I feel he may struggle today.

Sioux Nation 9/2 (B365) Lost

4.20 Coronation Stakes – Group 1 – 1 mile

  1. 10/15 winners finished in the top 6 in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket
  2. 1000 Guineas winners have gone on to win this 5 times race this century
  3. Irish 2000 Guineas winners have won this race 8 times in the last 31 years
  4. 15/18 winners went off at no bigger than 6/1 with 9/18 being either favourite or joint-favourite

Clemmie notched up a hat-trick of victories last season but failed to get involved on re-appearance in the 1000 Guineas last month. She should come on for the run and may well do better but I feel may still need another run before hitting top form again.

Alpha Centauri was only a neck away from victory in the Albany Stakes at last year’s Royal meeting and stepped up on that by winning the Irish 1000 Guineas at The Curragh last month, beating Could It Be Love who has since ran an excellent third in the Jersey Stakes earlier this week. That was her first run over a mile so she could yet improve further and with conditions again in her favour she is the one they all have to beat.

Billesdon Brook was a 66/1 winner of the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket, surging clear to win like an odds-on shot and beating Laurens in to second – who has since won two Group 1’s including the Prix De Diane at Chantilly last weekend. A similar performance would give her a good chance of following up here but I personally think she’ll be fighting it out for the minor honours.

The unbeaten Teppal won a Group 1 over a mile last time out and is another likely to get involved, while at a bigger price Threading has won three from five and was a runaway seven length winner in a Listed contest over a mile on good-to-firm ground at York last time out and cannot be dismissed for a trainer who has had twenty-seven winners in the last two weeks.

Alpha Centauri 7/2 (B365) WON

 5.00 Sandringham Stakes – Handicap – 1 mile

  1. 17/22 winners had won earlier in the season
  2. Look for horses that raced in the Nell Gwyn Stakes and/or placed in the Pretty Polly Stakes

Agrotera was second to Dathanna on first run of the season but that was on soft ground and she improved on good-to-firm ground next time out, beating a subsequent winner and recent SimplyHorseTips NAP Four White Socks. There looks more to come from Ed Walker’s filly and a similar run would see her right in the mix.

Ceilidhs Dream won over a mile on penultimate run and wasn’t disgraced in the Musidora despite finishing sixth of seven last time out. The drop back in trip will suit and she looks to have a decent chance of making the frame at a decent each-way price.

Agrotera 7/1 (B365) WON

Cellidhs Dream 12/1 e/w (Whill – 5 places) Lost

5.35 Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Handicap – 1m 4 furlongs

  1. 19/20 winners were aged 4 or 5
  2. Sir M Stoute and M Johnston have good records in this race
  3. 2nd, 3rd & 4th favourites have supplied 13 of the last 24 winners

Dash Of Spice was a SimplyHorseTips NAP last time out and duly obliged, making all and winning by six lengths over today’s trip. The fourth and fifth from that race have come out and won since so the form looks strong and although the 11lbs rise will undoubtedly make things tougher I feel there could yet be more to come andi’m happy to take a chance despite the relatively short odds considering the competitive nature of the race.

Thundering Blue has won four from ten on turf and was a ready winner at York on good-to-firm ground last time out. Proven at this level, he has a career high mark to contend with but has progressed well and this extra couple of furlongs could eke out further improvement so he isn’t taken lightly.

Top Tug was fourth in this race last season and takes his chance off the same mark this year. A decent second at Goodwood on seasonal re-appearance, he should be fully fit and raring to go and can make his presence felt, although may yet again find a couple too strong.

Count Calabash has won his last two, the latest over course and distance, and gets in at the foot of the weights. Eve Johnson-Houghton had a big priced winner on day one of the Royal meeting and looks to have another in with a live chance in today’s finale.

Dash Of Spice 5/1 (B365) WON

Count Calabash 9/1 e/w (B365 – 4 places) Lost


22/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +19pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s