Saturday 30th June

Looks an extremely tough day of racing today – plenty of meetings and in the main it is very much a case of quantity over quality. Looking forward to seeing Saxon Warrior in the Irish Derby and hopeful that he can produce his best and get back to winning ways, but at the prices have opted for what I think is a decent each way option.

We’ve had a really solid month – an excellent Royal Ascot on the whole, Day 4 being the highlight with 4 winners from 6, and have had 10 winning NAP’s… lets see if we can finish the month with another NAP winner!!

NAP Land Force 5/2 (PP) – Curragh 16:35 – 2pts win NR


ITV Racing

12:20 Newcastle – Shanghai Glory 15/2 (B365) Lost

12:55 Newcastle – Yafta 7/1 (B365) 2nd

13:10 Newmarket – So Brave 6/1 (Whill) Lost

13:30 Newcastle – Dannyday 8/1 e/w (Betfred – 5 places) NR

13:45 Newmarket – Tabarrak 4/1 (PP) Lost

14:05 Newcastle – Natural Scenery 8/1 e/w (sky – 6 places) & Watersmeet 22/1 e/w (sky – 6 places) Lost

Curragh

14:15 – Move In Time 9/1 e/w (B365 – 4 places) Lost

15:25 – St Patricks Day 9/4 (Boyles) 3rd

16:35 – Land Force 5/2 (PP) NR

17:15 – Latrobe 22/1 e/w (B365) WON


In-form Trainers

Sir M Stoute 11 wins & 9 placed from 40 in the last 2 weeks, a 27.5% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£21.82…

12:55 Newcastle – Dream Of Dreams

13:30 Newcastle – Dannyday

15:20 York – Elector

R Charlton 5 wins & 2 placed from 15 in the last 2 weeks, a 33% winning strike rate…

13:50 Windsor – Bercheny

14:05 Newcastle – Withold

14:55 Newmarket – Second Step

16:05 Newmarket – Casement

Sir M Prescott 4 wins & 4 placed from 14 in the last 2 weeks, a 28.5% winning strike rate…

17:20 Windsor – Praeceps

17:40 Lingfield – Trouble And Strife

R Fell 6 wins & 7 placed from 24 in the last 2 weeks, a 25% winning strike rate & level stakes profit of +£16.50…

12:20 Newcastle – Glen Moss

14:45 York – Club Wexford

15:15 Newcastle – Florencio

16:30 York – Harome

17:00 York – Zihaam


MONTHLY RESULTS….

30/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: evs

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +109.41pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +721.09pts

Advertisements

Friday 29th June

NAP Ode To Autumn 9/2 (B365) – Yarmouth 16:40 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Ode To Autumn wasn’t seen to best effect over ten furlongs last time out but has a great record over a mile, posting two wins and a second from three runs over the trip. Both victories came on the tapeta at Newcastle but he did post a couple of placed efforts on turf last summer and better is expected from him now returning to eight furlongs. Frankie Dettori has just the one ride here today and has an outstanding record at the course with five wins from six in the last 12 months.

Insurgence has also been running well on the all-weather in recent months, posting three wins from four, although unlike our selection his prior runs on turf were not so promising and he steps up to a mile for the first time today.

Protected Guest was a 33/1 winner over course and distance last time out and looks the most obvious danger but steps up in class and has been given an 8lbs rise which will undoubtedly make things tougher today.

NB Four White Socks 4/1 (B365) – Newcastle 20:05 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Four White Socks was a SimplyHorseTips NAP at Goodwood last time out, putting in a hugely impressive run under a confident Jamie Spencer ride to win by three lengths. I have been impressed with this filly in both runs to date and feel she is capable of winning at this level so while it is a little surprising to see her switched to the all-weather, one can only assume that her trainer Luca Cumani believes she will act on the surface and comfort is taken from his 33% winning strike rate at the course over the last twelve months along with the fact that jockey P J McDonald knows where the winning post is at the course having ridden nineteen winners here over the same time period and is 1/1 when riding for the trainer.


Tracker horse

Autumn Splendour 6/4 (Whill) – Yarmouth 14:40 WON

Autumn Splendour ran green as grass on racecourse debut; slowly away and weaving left and right at the rear of the field in the early stages before being bumped a couple of furlongs from home and finally getting a gap to come storming home inside the final furlong, getting up for second. He went straight in to the notebook and would have learnt a lot from that run so looks to have a good chance of going one better today.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

29/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +49.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts

Thursday 28th June

NAP On The Warpath 3/1 (B365) – Newmarket 16:25 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Charlie Appleby has won thirty-seven races at Newmarket in the last twelve months, making it his most successful course in terms of the volume of winners and producing a 34% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£30.36. He has just one runner on the card today who makes both his stable and turf debut following a progressive winter on the all-weather for Sir Mark Prescott, improving for each of his four runs and producing two impressive victories at Southwell towards the back end of 2017. This is a step up in class and he comes with risks attached given that this will be his first attempt away from a synthetic surface, but his sire Declaration Of Peace was a multiple winner on turf and I feel that On The Warpath could prove to be a class above today’s rivals.   


MONTHLY RESULTS….

28/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +53.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts

Wednesday 27th June

Just a watching brief today – a couple I think could run well at Salisbury but with enough question marks over them for me to refrain from having a bet.

15:10 – Oberyn Martell 15/8 (Whill)

  • Heavily supported on debut, finishing second to Victory Command who has won twice since
  • Went one better next time out, winning by 2 lengths in commanding fashion
  • Both runs on good-to-firm ground
  • Steps up to 6 furlongs for today’s race

15:40 – Valcartier 11/1 e/w (sky)

  • Disappointed in last couple of runs but has dropped 2lbs and returns to the trip that he was an impressive four length winner over in April 2017, his only career victory to date.
  • J Gosden 36% winning strike rate in the last 3 years at the course, with level stakes profit of +£31.61.

16:10 – Burgonet 5/1 (B365)

  • Won her last 3 races
  • Has won over today’s trip (1 win from 1 run)
  • Has won at this course (1 win from 1 run)
  • M Johnston in flying form, 26 winners in the last 2 weeks

16:40 – Air Squadron 18/1 e/w (PP)

  • 2 wins and a 2nd from 5 runs over course and distance
  • 3 wins and a 2nd from 6 runs at this distance
  • Won this race in 2015 & is 4lbs better off today

 

Tuesday 26th June

NAP Zlatan 3/1 (B365) – Beverley 15:30 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

David O’Meara and Danny Tudhope teamed up to win this race with Sunglider last year and send Pioneering in attempt to win it again. Their four-year-old runner tends to do well at the course having posted two wins from three runs here, including one over today’s ten-furlong trip. Danny Tudhope has been in the saddle for all three career victories and also seems to have an affinity with the course, boasting six wins from eighteen rides so far in 2018.

Despite all of the above, I am happy to look elsewhere for the winner of this race as Pioneering is yet to find his form this season, has done all of his winning in lower grades than today and is still 6lbs above last winning mark. He would be dangerous to dismiss completely given his course form but looks to have too much on his plate in current form.

Bollin Ted is another who seems to save his best for the Yorkshire course, winning three times over course and distance and making the frame in seven from ten when racing here. He is another who would be dangerous to dismiss but he has been beaten twice here in recent weeks and now steps up in Class and is partnered with a jockey who, although tends to do well when riding the four-year-old, has only managed 6 wins from over 160 rides in the last 12 months.

The selection for the race is Zlatan who has been holding his form well with three placed efforts from his last three runs. He travelled really strongly last time out before having to check his run when trying to find space. Running on strongly and finishing ahead of Bollin Ted, he couldn’t quite reel in the winner and eventually went down by a neck. He has been upped just 1lbs for that effort and his trainer is in excellent form with four winners from twelve in the last two weeks, posting a level stakes profit of +£44.25 during that time, so I’m expecting a strong run and a victory to boot.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

26/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +55.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts

Monday 25th June

NAP Bella Ferrari 6/1 (PP) – Windsor 19:10 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Edge Of The World has improved for the arrival of genuine fast ground, winning two in a row over a six furlong trip, at Yarmouth and Leicester respectively, and showed great battling qualities to get back up once headed in the final furlong last time out. She has gone up 4lbs for that but has looked to be progressing well so it is unlikely she will be far away at the finish.

Bella Ferrari could only manage third behind the aforementioned Ralph Beckett runner last time out but this doesn’t tell the full story as she practically fell out of the stalls and was at the back of the pack for much of the race before eating up the ground at the finish and ending up just a half-length behind the winner. With a better break today she can reverse that form and in doing so gain her first career victory.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

25/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +57.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts

Sunday 24th June

NAP Alwaysandforever 2/1 (B365) – Pontefract 15:30 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Luca Cumani won this race in 2015 and 2016 and jockey Ryan Moore won this race when riding Abigndon here in 2017. They team up today with Alwaysandforever who was only a half-length behind the 2017 Ribblesdale winner Coronet on debut and was last seen winning in decisive fashion at Windsor in May. At her best on genuine fast ground, she should be capable of victory today on her way to contesting Group races later in the season. 

NB Round The Island 9/2 (PP) – Pontefract 17:00 – 2pts win WON +9pts

Trainer Richard Whitaker has sent thirteen runners to Pontefract since the beginning of 2017 and has returned seven winners for a 54% winning strike rate and level stakes profit of +£26.33. He runs two at the course today and it is his second runner Round The Island that I am most interested in. His last victory came over course and distance in a Class 5 race on good-to-firm ground off a mark of 61 with Lewis Edmunds in the saddle and races today over the same trip with similar conditions off a mark of 58 and is again partnered by the talented young jockey. He finished ahead of a couple of today’s rivals when fourth last time out, racing keenly and seemingly doing too much too soon, so a more patient ride today should pay dividends.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

24/6/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +7pts

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: +59.15pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS (all updated at the end of each month)

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +60.26pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015: +671.94pts