Good morning all!! Apologies for the lack of blog updates or selections over the last week – the weather put pay to a couple of possible options early in the week and I thought the racing towards the back end of the week was pretty poor with few stand-out options so decided to take a couple of days away from adding any main selections.
Back today for the start of the flat season and although these early meetings can throw out a few surprises as some stables will be slow to start and other will be raring to go I think we have a few decent chances at Doncaster today. Full race previews for all 7 ITV races below, lets see if we can bag a couple of winners and continue our good run of form following Cheltenham.
NAP Perfect Pasture 5/1 (coral) – Doncaster 13:50 – 2pts win WON +10pts
NB Thomas Patrick 9/2 (B365) – Newbury 14:05 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/1) +10pts
3B Gabrial 28/1 (coral – 6places) – Doncaster 15:35 – 1pt e/w 4th +6pts
13:50 Doncaster – Perfect Pasture WON
Lancelot Du Lac won well last time out but that came on the all-weather and on turf he has only won one of his last twenty-four so despite the fitness advantage could be worth opposing.
Preference is for Perfect Pasture who has won two of his last three including a victory over course and distance. A solid second at listed level when last seen, finishing ahead of the re-opposing Danzeno and Teruntum Star, he has won well fresh on a couple of occasions and is unbeaten in two with David Allan in the saddle so looks a solid option to begin the ITV races with a victory.
14:05 Newbury – Thomas Patrick WON
Wotzizname has won two of his last three, both over a three-mile trip and both in soft ground, but has attempted this longer trip twice without success so may prove vulnerable for win purposes.
Amore Alato has his sights lowered on debut for Dan Skelton having come up short in Graded company the last twice but won a Listed contest on seasonal re-appearance so should be more than capable of a better performance here. That said, he has raced twice at the course before without success and the stable have only managed one winner from the last thirty-eight runners so also comes with risks attached.
Shanroe Santos arrives in good form and should get involved with a clear round of jumping but my selection is Thomas Patrick who won on chase debut over three miles in heavy-to-soft ground and races for Tom Lacey who has won with five of his last eight runners over the last two weeks.
14:25 Doncaster – Original Choice Lost
Whats The Story has won his last two on turf, both coming over seven furlongs with coming one here at Doncaster. Although only third on last month’s re-appearance that came on the all-weather so returning to turf and with Ryan Moore in the saddle he could be a big threat if handling the extra furlong.
Taqdeer hasn’t been seen since winning at Newmarket in May 2016 but has winning form over a mile and if retaining his ability after such a long lay-off would have to enter calculations.
Trainer William Haggas hasn’t had many runners in recent weeks but has had two winners from his last three and runs Original Choice who has winning turf form, should find the trip and ground in his favour, and won first time out last season so appears to run well fresh.
14:40 Newbury – Oistrakh Le Noir 2nd
Oistrakh Le Noir was highly fancied to run a big race in one of the festival handicaps at Cheltenham earlier in the month and has been re-routed here having missed the cut. An impressive winner in soft ground at Market Rasen last time out, he should take all the beating here.
Falcon Sun has shown glimpses of ability in three runs to date and although was fourth behind the re-opposing Mr Chow last time out we could see further improvement now pitched in to handicap company, although the recent stable form of Dan Skelton is a little off-putting.
15:00 Doncaster – Zabeel Prince WON
Roger Varian boasts a 26% winning strike rate over the last three years at the course, posting level stakes profits of +£46.32 over the same time period, so it makes sense to begin with is runner Zabeel Prince. A winner of three from four in 2017, all over around a mile and with two in soft ground, he runs well fresh and must be considered in with a great chance today.
David Simcock and Ryan Moore also have decent records at the course and although has been racing on the all-weather over the winter he was a very impressive thirteen length winner at Wolves last time out and has winning form on turf from earlier in his career so arrives in good form and could make his presence felt.
A final mention goes to Tabarrak who twice won at Listed level last year and placed at Group level but may prefer better ground conditions.
15:15 Newbury – Kalahari Queen (E/W) 2nd
The final race from Newbury looks a tough one to crack, with the likes of Sunshade and Jet Set both being sent here from stables who know how to win this race. Of the two, Sunshade looks the most likely to challenge.
Petticoat Tails arrives looking for a hat-trick of victories and there looks to be more to come from the Warren Greatrex mare, while Oscar Rose was unlucky not to win last time out and has put in some solid efforts in defeat so far this season
Lady Of Lamanver has a good record over course and distance having won this race in 2016 only to be demoted and could make the frame again today, although for my selection I am opting for Kalahari Queen who has won two of her last three, both in soft ground, and was staying on strongly last time out so should handle the step up in trip.
15:35 Doncaster – Gabrial (E/W) 4th
A fascinating and extremely competitive end to today’s ITV racing as twenty-two runners take each other on for the Lincoln. Bravery won this race last year and arrives here 5lbs better off but has since raced eleven times without success and the stable also run Lord Glitters who has finished in the top two placings in each of his last five runs, including when winning the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot last season.
Mitchum Swagger has winning form over a mile, has won in soft ground and has won on return from a break so it would be no surprise to see a big run on debut for his new stable, while Fire Brigade, Addeybb and Leader Writer will all have their supporters and all need to be considered.
That said, this race has been won by some bigger priced runners in recent years and with five or even six places available with some bookmakers I am opting for the 2015 winner and 2017 4th of this race Gabrial who is 4lbs better off this year and is partnered with Jamie Spencer so should be coming for a late finish to try and grab the spoils.
24/2/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +26pts
17/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts
MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +41.68pts
HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS
2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts
2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts
2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts
PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts