Sunday 1st April

NAP Cawdor House Bert 3/1 (laddys) – Ffos Las 15:25 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Cawdor House Bert returned from a ten month break with victory over course and distance in heavy ground last month, travelling strongly and digging deep when needed to beat a 103-rated rival by a neck. The third from that race has gone on to win since so the form looks decent and Sean Bowen, who boasts a 38% winning strike rate when riding for David Rees, keeps the ride. A 3lbs rise could prove lenient as he is still well treated on old form and all three career victories have come at this course so he is the choice for victory here.

Bredon Hill Lad has won two from three at the course and won’t mind the conditions but is yet to win in four over todays’ trip and has never won off a mark this high so the bigger danger looks to be Market Road who won in heavy ground over a similar trip on penultimate run and races for a yard who have been amongst the winners in recent weeks.

NB Mr Antolini 7/2 (B365) – Plumpton 15:45 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

Mr Antolini beat a couple of decent Nicky Henderson yardsticks when winning the Imperial Cup last month, travelling and jumping well to bring his tally to two wins and a second from three runs since joining Nigel Twiston Davies. With a good record over the trip and conditions again expecting to suit he should be capable of another big performance despite a 6lbs rise.     

3B Shar Whats Therush 9/1 (laddys) – Fairyhouse 14:20 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Shar Whats Therush won over course and distance on penultimate run and was in the process of running another big race when last seen, coming down at the last when challenging for the lead. The winner and second of that race have both won since so the form looks decent and providing the fall hasn’t dented the confidence too much he could get back to the winning ways here.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

1/4/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +62.48pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +68.35pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +680.03pts

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Saturday 31st March

NAP Vazirabad 5/2 (WHill) – Meydan 13:50 – 2pts win WON +5pts

NB Rey De Oro 11/4 (B365) – Meydan 17:10 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

3B Neorealism 5/1 (sky) – Meydan 16:35 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

LUCKY 15 – 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) -0.9pts

NAP 5/2 WON

NB 11/4 Lost 

3B 5/1 Lost

X Y Jet 5/2 – Meydan 15:40 2nd

DOUBLE 5.3/1 (PP) – 2pts win

Blue Point 11/10 – Meydan 15:05 NR

Gold Town 2/1 – Meydan 14:30 Lost


Meydan 13:50 – Vazirabad WON

A race that looks to be a match-up between Vazirabad and Rare Rhythm. Vazirabad has won this race for the last two years and has followed a very similar build up this season. The fact that he was beaten by Rare Rhythm last time out is a cause for concern and if over the same trip I would probably side with the Charlie Appleby runner, however the step up in trip isn’t sure to suit whereas Vazirabad will relish the extra distance and as such can gain the hat-trick.

Meydan 14:30 – Gold Town win, Rayya e/w Lost & 2nd

Gold Town has won both races at Meydan this season, including a Group 3 race by ten lengths last time out, and despite the short odds looks difficult to oppose for win purposes. Rayya turned the tables on Winter Lightning last time out when stepped up to today’s trip and looks to have a great chance of grabbing minor honours.

Meydan 15:05 – Blue Point NR

Blue Point got to within a head of Ertijaal last time out and the return to six furlongs is a big plus as all five career victories have come over this trip. Another short-priced favourite that should do the business if running to form. Jungle Cat and Librisa Breeze look likely to fight it out for the places.

Meydan 15:40 – X Y Jet 2nd

Jordan Sport smashed the track record with a seven-length victory last time out and although will find this tougher is no forlorn hope for a place. Roy H has won six from seven and is a class act, although I’m siding with X Y Jet who is well-drawn in stall 2, was second in this race two years ago and has won his last three in commanding fashion.

Meydan 16:35 – Neorealism Lost

Vivlos won this race last year but will need to step up on last run if she’s to get involved again. Fellow Japanese raider Real Steel won the race in 2016 and is worthy of a mention, while Blair House and Benbatl both come in to this race having had excellent seasons at Meydan so far. Monarchs Glen hasn’t been seen since October but has won on return from similar breaks and has a chance of getting involved with Frankie Dettori in the saddle, but with a Japanese runner having won the last two renewals I am opting for Neorealism who won the QEII Cup last year and was an excellent third in the Hong Kong Derby in December.

Meydan 17:10 – Rey De Oro Lost

Cloth Of Stars was second to Enable in the Prix de L’arc de Triomphe but all career victories have come over a shorter trip than he encounters today and his best performances have come in softer ground than is forecast. Poets Word has won the majority of his career victories when returning from a break but has never won at this level and as such may have to settle for minor honours. Rey De Oro won the Japanese Derby last year and finished ahead of some high-class individuals when second in the Japan Cup in November. With last months’ prep run under his belt and both the trip and forecast conditions in his favour he is taken to gain victory here.

Meydan 17:50 – North America e/w

With Bob Baffert’s record in this race and excellent recent form it is difficult to get away from West Coast as the most likely winner here. That said, he has been beaten in his last two runs (albeit by the excellent Gun Runner) and has not been done any favours with the draw and as such I am happy to take him on with North America who has won five and placed twice from eight runs at Meydan and beat Thunder Snow by over five lengths at this trip when beating California Chrome’s course record last time out.


ITV RACING

13:50 Musselburgh – Masham Star Lost

14:05 Haydock – Creep Desbois Lost

14:25 Musselburgh – Alpha Delphini 2nd

14:40 Haydock – Sleepy Haven Lost

15:00 Musselburgh – Ayutthaya Lost

15:15 Haydock – Behind Time Lost

15:35 Musselburgh – Time To Study 2nd

Saturday Shortlisted runner

Finaghy Ayr 5/2 (PP) – Carlisle 16:35 Lost

Finaghy Ayr has been holding his form well, winning in December before posting three consecutive seconds including when a couple of lengths behind Smugglers Stash on penultimate run. A winner of three from four at the course and with an 11lbs swing in the weights over Smugglers Stash he should be capable of victory here.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

31/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

27/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

26/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +16pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +62.48pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +68.35pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +680.03pts

Friday 30th March

NAP Gronkowski 2/1 (coral) – Newcastle 15:55 – 2pts win WON +4pts

NB Gifted Master 3/1 (coral) – Lingfield 15:05 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

3B Mountain Bell 5/1 (B365) – Lingfield 14:00 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

LUCKY 15 1.5pts total win (coral best price) -0.05pts

NAP 2/1 WON

NB 3/1 Lost

3B 5/1 Lost

Corinthia Knight 15/8 – Lingfield 15:40 WON


Newcastle

15:55 Newcastle – Gronkowski 2/1 (coral) WON

Unbeaten in three since switching to the all-weather, including a six length victory over course and distance on penultimate run. Up against a top performer in Nyaleti but is open to further improvement and can make it four wins in a row with victory today.

Lingfield

13:30 Lingfield – Gallipoli 10/1 (sky) 3rd

A half-length second over this trip on return from an eight month break so should be capable of more with that run under his belt. Is effectively 2lbs better off today if considering the jockey’s claim and both trainer and jockey are in good form so is worth a play at 11/1 with skybet who are doing money back if 2nd or 3rd.

14:00 Lingfield – Mountain Bell 5/1 (B365) Lost

Watersmeet was second in this race last year and arrives in excellent form having won his last three so it would be no surprise to see another big run, however was behind Mountain Bell when they last met. That was Mountain Bell’s first run over today’s trip but he did it very well and has been one to watch on return having won twice after similar breaks so looks to have a decent chance of victory again here. Red Verdon is a top class performer and is also a danger, although needs to prove he stays this longer trip. 

14:30 Lingfield – Diagnostic 7/2 (betfred) WON

Both trainer and jockey have excellent records at Lingfield and both arrive in excellent recent form. They team up with Diagnostic who has won three from four on a polytrack surface, two from four over seven furlongs and should benefit from the bigger field she encounters today. Zest and Summer Icon are obvious dangers while at a bigger price Pattie has winning course and distance form and could outrun her odds.

15:05 Lingfield – Gifted Master 3/1 (coral) Lost

Kimberella won this race last year and his trainer has won this race three times in the last four years so it would be no surprise to see a big run from his eight-year old. Kachy is two from two over course and distance and beat Kimberella in a Listed contest last time out so is also feared, however preference is for Gifted Master who also won a Listed contest over course and distance last time out, has an excellent record over the trip having won six from nine and also has a decent record when fresh. 

15:40 Lingfield – Corinthia Knight 15/8 (Whill) WON

Arrives in excellent form having won his last three in convincing fashion, the last of which came at Listed level in France. A winner of six from eight on an all-weather surface (3 winners and a second from four on polytrack) he looks tough to beat.

16:10 Lingfield – Second Thought 5/4 (sky) 2nd

Unbeaten in six on the all-weather, including two at Lingfield, he has winning form over the trip and won in convincing fashion at Listed level last time out, beating Summer Icon who runs in the 14:30. A short price but difficult to oppose.

Likely dangers include Goring who has won his last four, all over course and distance, and Arcanda who has won his last three including two over course and distance.

16:40 Lingfield – Victory Bond 7/2 (coral) WON

Victory Bond was second to Utmost over course and distance when last seen and had earlier finished second to Master The World again over course and distance, however has also won twice over similar distances at Chelmsford and Wolves respectively and can improve to land the finale for William Haggas and James Doyle.  


MONTHLY RESULTS….

30/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -0.05pts

27/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

26/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +16pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +62.38pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts

Tuesday 27th March

A great few days with three winning NAP’s in a row since returning after Cheltenham. A word of warning that Tuesday’s selections are a little more speculative and as such I would recommend keeping stakes sensible.

NAP Three Ways 4/1 (B365) – Hereford 14:45 – 2pts win      Lost -2pts

Three Ways won over today’s trip in soft ground on penultimate run and has also won over a similar distance in good-to-soft ground when tackling the smaller obstacles. He fell last time out but has been given a few weeks to recover and has also had a wind op which could eke out further improvement so with both trainer and jockey in good form he looks a bit of value against the two market principles who are so far unproven over the trip.

NB Easter In Paris 6/1 (Laddys) – Hereford 15:45 – 2pts win     NR

Easter In Paris hasn’t been at his best so far this season and as such will need to improve on recent runs, but his only career victory under rules came in this race last season and he arrives here with 4lbs less to carry this time out. With conditions again likely to suit it is hoped that a return to Hereford will bring about the necessary improvement to land this.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

27/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

26/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +16pts

 

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +62.43pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts

Monday 26th March

NAP Clondaw Westie 9/2 (B365) – Huntingdon 15:05 – 2pts win WON (SP 8/1) +16pts

Clondaw Westie won a decent looking point-to-point before moving to Lawney Hill and although couldn’t get his head in front over hurdles he has proved a different proposition over fences, winning by eight lengths over today’s trip in soft ground on debut and winning again last time out over a shorter trip in heavy ground. He’s been upped 7lbs but should appreciate the step back up in trip and can made it three wins from four over the larger obstacles with victory here.

Royal Tara won on only previous run over fences but that came almost twelve months ago in good ground over almost three miles and his recent form over hurdles hasn’t been great so comes with risks attached.

Bally Gilbert is yet to record a career victory but improved last time out to gain a sold second behind Ratify who has won again since. The recent stable form hasn’t been great but could yet improve further so looks to be the biggest danger to the selection.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

26/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +16pts

25/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.75pts

24/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +26pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +64.43pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts

Sunday 25th March

NAP Malaya 9/4 (B365) – Ascot 14:35 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/2) +7pts

Turning Gold was an excellent fifth in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham and won in heavy ground on penultimate run. He won’t mind the testing conditions here but has only had eleven days to recover from what was a tough race and for that reason I am happy to look elsewhere.

Knight Destroyer was a heavy faller in the Fred Winter but as a result could have a fitness advantage over the aforementioned Turning Gold and could be a danger if the confidence hasn’t been knocked following that fall.

Eragon De Chanay will relish conditions and is proven over the trip but is another who ran at Cheltenham so preference is for the Paul Nicholls runner Malaya who is yet to finish outside the first two since racing over hurdles, was a solid second to Redicean last time out and has previous winning form in soft ground.

NB Monsieur Gibraltar 9/4 (B365) – Ascot 17:00 – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Monsieur Gibraltar is a previous course and distance winner having won this race by nine lengths last year, is only 4lbs higher today and has won on return from a break on three separate occasions so looks to have a great chance of winning again here.

Midnight Cowboy has won three from six over fences but all victories came on good ground and his only run on softer ground saw him disappoint somewhat so the bigger danger could be Marinero who should find this easier than the Kim Muir at Cheltenham where he was pulled up.

3B Mobsta 11/1 (PP – 4places) – Doncaster 15:35 – 1pt e/w 4th +1.75pts

Mobsta won a Listed contest over course and distance in soft ground at this meeting in 2016, on his first run of the season, and has posted two wins from five over track and trip in his career. Today sees a drop in class off what looks to be a tempting mark of 88 and if ready to go following his winter break he could get back to winning ways here.    


Sunday Shortlist

15:00 Doncaster – First Contact WON (SP 10/11)

Charlie Appleby and William Buick have both been in excellent form in recent weeks and they team up with First Contact who won on debut and was a solid second last time out, eight lengths ahead of third who then won next time out. Both runs to date have come on the all-weather so he needs to prove as effective on turf but looks an exciting prospect and as such gets the vote.

17:20 Doncaster – Broderie 3rd (SP 10/11)

As with First Contact in the 3pm race, Charlie Appleby and William Buick team up with the progressive filly Broderie who is two from two over ten furlongs with both victories coming on the all-weather. Not the best of prices but this doesn’t look the strongest of renewals so she should be capable of victory if handling conditions.

14:00 Ascot – Colonial Dreams WON (SP 3/1)

Nico De Boinville has a good record at Ascot and is re-united with Colonial Dreams who was last seen coming down at the last hurdle when just a length behind the leader. He was well clear of the remainder of the field and had earlier finished a solid second to subsequent Ballymore second Black Op so looks to have a great chance of gaining his first hurdle victory today.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

25/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.75pts

24/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +26pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +48.43pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts

Saturday 24th March

Good morning all!! Apologies for the lack of blog updates or selections over the last week – the weather put pay to a couple of possible options early in the week and I thought the racing towards the back end of the week was pretty poor with few stand-out options so decided to take a couple of days away from adding any main selections.

Back today for the start of the flat season and although these early meetings can throw out a few surprises as some stables will be slow to start and other will be raring to go I think we have a few decent chances at  Doncaster today. Full race previews for all 7 ITV races below, lets see if we can bag a couple of winners and continue our good run of form following Cheltenham.

NAP Perfect Pasture 5/1 (coral) – Doncaster 13:50 – 2pts win WON +10pts

NB Thomas Patrick 9/2 (B365) – Newbury 14:05 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/1) +10pts

3B Gabrial 28/1 (coral – 6places) – Doncaster 15:35 – 1pt e/w 4th +6pts


ITV RACING

13:50 Doncaster – Perfect Pasture WON

Lancelot Du Lac won well last time out but that came on the all-weather and on turf he has only won one of his last twenty-four so despite the fitness advantage could be worth opposing.

Preference is for Perfect Pasture who has won two of his last three including a victory over course and distance. A solid second at listed level when last seen, finishing ahead of the re-opposing Danzeno and Teruntum Star, he has won well fresh on a couple of occasions and is unbeaten in two with David Allan in the saddle so looks a solid option to begin the ITV races with a victory.

14:05 Newbury – Thomas Patrick WON

Wotzizname has won two of his last three, both over a three-mile trip and both in soft ground, but has attempted this longer trip twice without success so may prove vulnerable for win purposes.

Amore Alato has his sights lowered on debut for Dan Skelton having come up short in Graded company the last twice but won a Listed contest on seasonal re-appearance so should be more than capable of a better performance here. That said, he has raced twice at the course before without success and the stable have only managed one winner from the last thirty-eight runners so also comes with risks attached.

Shanroe Santos arrives in good form and should get involved with a clear round of jumping but my selection is Thomas Patrick who won on chase debut over three miles in heavy-to-soft ground and races for Tom Lacey who has won with five of his last eight runners over the last two weeks.

14:25 Doncaster – Original Choice Lost

Whats The Story has won his last two on turf, both coming over seven furlongs with coming one here at Doncaster. Although only third on last month’s re-appearance that came on the all-weather so returning to turf and with Ryan Moore in the saddle he could be a big threat if handling the extra furlong.

Taqdeer hasn’t been seen since winning at Newmarket in May 2016 but has winning form over a mile and if retaining his ability after such a long lay-off would have to enter calculations.

Trainer William Haggas hasn’t had many runners in recent weeks but has had two winners from his last three and runs Original Choice who has winning turf form, should find the trip and ground in his favour, and won first time out last season so appears to run well fresh.

14:40 Newbury – Oistrakh Le Noir 2nd

Oistrakh Le Noir was highly fancied to run a big race in one of the festival handicaps at Cheltenham earlier in the month and has been re-routed here having missed the cut. An impressive winner in soft ground at Market Rasen last time out, he should take all the beating here.

Falcon Sun has shown glimpses of ability in three runs to date and although was fourth behind the re-opposing Mr Chow last time out we could see further improvement now pitched in to handicap company, although the recent stable form of Dan Skelton is a little off-putting.

15:00 Doncaster – Zabeel Prince WON

Roger Varian boasts a 26% winning strike rate over the last three years at the course, posting level stakes profits of +£46.32 over the same time period, so it makes sense to begin with is runner Zabeel Prince. A winner of three from four in 2017, all over around a mile and with two in soft ground, he runs well fresh and must be considered in with a great chance today.

David Simcock and Ryan Moore also have decent records at the course and although has been racing on the all-weather over the winter he was a very impressive thirteen length winner at Wolves last time out and has winning form on turf from earlier in his career so arrives in good form and could make his presence felt.

A final mention goes to Tabarrak who twice won at Listed level last year and placed at Group level but may prefer better ground conditions.

15:15 Newbury – Kalahari Queen (E/W) 2nd

The final race from Newbury looks a tough one to crack, with the likes of Sunshade and Jet Set both being sent here from stables who know how to win this race. Of the two, Sunshade looks the most likely to challenge.

Petticoat Tails arrives looking for a hat-trick of victories and there looks to be more to come from the Warren Greatrex mare, while Oscar Rose was unlucky not to win last time out and has put in some solid efforts in defeat so far this season

Lady Of Lamanver has a good record over course and distance having won this race in 2016 only to be demoted and could make the frame again today, although for my selection I am opting for Kalahari Queen who has won two of her last three, both in soft ground, and was staying on strongly last time out so should handle the step up in trip.

15:35 Doncaster – Gabrial (E/W) 4th

A fascinating and extremely competitive end to today’s ITV racing as twenty-two runners take each other on for the Lincoln. Bravery won this race last year and arrives here 5lbs better off but has since raced eleven times without success and the stable also run Lord Glitters who has finished in the top two placings in each of his last five runs, including when winning the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot last season.

Mitchum Swagger has winning form over a mile, has won in soft ground and has won on return from a break so it would be no surprise to see a big run on debut for his new stable, while Fire Brigade, Addeybb and Leader Writer will all have their supporters and all need to be considered.

That said, this race has been won by some bigger priced runners in recent years and with five or even six places available with some bookmakers I am opting for the 2015 winner and 2017 4th of this race Gabrial who is 4lbs better off this year and is partnered with Jamie Spencer so should be coming for a late finish to try and grab the spoils.


MONTHLY RESULTS….

24/2/18 PROFIT/LOSS: +26pts

17/3/18 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

MARCH 2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +41.68pts


HISTORIC & ROLLING RESULTS

2018 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.87pts

2017 PROFIT/LOSS: +76.17pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +237.55pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +611.68pts