Wednesday 21st December

NAP: Highway Storm 5/2 (B365) – Ffos Las 14:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP 3/1) -2pts

NB: Brillare Momento 4/1 (B365) – Ludlow 14:10 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/2) -2pts

IWAC: Amazement 5/1 (B365 – Newcastle 13:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 7/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) -1.5pts

NAP 5/2 Lost

NB 4/1 Lost

Culture De Sivola 11/4 – Ffos Las 13:20 Lost

Sizing Platinum 4/1 – Ludlow 13:35 Lost


WEDNESDAY STATS RUNNERS….

FFOS LAS

R Curtis 12 wins & 5 placed from 25 in the last 3 years over fences at Ffos Las, a 48% winning strike rate with level stakes profit of +£38.71 to a £1 stake over the same time period, and runs just 1 over fences here today….

14:50 – Highway Storm 5/2 (B365) Lost

N Twiston-Davies 10 wins & 15 placed from 32 in the last 3 years over fences at Ffos Las, a 31.25% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over fences here today….

14:50 – Deputy Commander 11/4 (BV) Lost

LUDLOW

T George 13 wins & 17 placed from 38 in the last 3 years over fences at Ludlow, a 34.21% winning strike rate, and runs 2 over fences here today….

13:35 – Noche De Reyes 9/1 (coral) Lost

14:40 – Cernunnos 12/1 (Whill) Lost

P Hobbs 12 wins & 12 placed from 33 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Ludlow, a 36.36%% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

14:10 – Midnight Glory 9/1 (B365) Lost

N Henderson 9 wins & 12 placed from 32 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Ludlow, a 28.13%% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

12:35 – River Wylde 4/1 (PP) WON


RESULTS….

21/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

19/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

18/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

17/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -20.16pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Tuesday 20th December

We’ve had a poor couple of days and the racing on Tuesday looks to be average at best, so with no stand out bets at prices I fancy I’ll be taking a day off. I’ve added my shortlist below as there are a couple I considered, but with each there is enough doubt to make me think it’s not worth any outlay today.

TUESDAY STATS & SHORTLISTED RUNNERS….

TAUNTON

12:45 Scales (20/1) – Won over course and distance and has made the frame in all previous runs at the course. Needs to bounce back from a couple of poor runs but is back down to a mark of 105 which is the same mark as when beaten less than a length over todays’ trip at Warwick 12 months ago.

13:15 Volpone Jelois (6/4) & 13:45 Amore De Nuit (evens) – P Nicholls has a 30% winning strike rate at the course over the last 12 months and both his runners look to have decent chances however both look a little on the short side in terms of odds for a single.

15:20 Bus Named Desire (10/1) – Made the frame in 3 from 5 over the larger obstacles and her trainer has a 42% winning strike rate and level stakes profit of £41 to a £1 stake with his runners over fences here in the last three years

SOUTHWELL

14:30 Haaf A Sixpence (15/2) – Won on his only previous run at Southwell, has won three and placed in three from ten over seven furlongs and has a 60% career place strike rate for all runs on an all-weather surface. He has won in higher grades in the past and with jockey Hector Crouch claiming 3lbs he is effectively 2lbs below his win here at Southwell.


RESULTS….

19/12/2016 PROFiT/LOSS: -7.5pts

18/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

17/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -12.66pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Monday 19th December

NAP: Robbing The Prey 2/1 (PP) – Ayr 12:50 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 4/6) -2pts

Placed twice over todays’ trip on soft ground and has improved with each run since joining J M Jefferson. Trainer has a 33% winning strike rate in the last 12 months at Ayr and has been in great recent from with a 30.7% winning strike rate over the last 2 weeks.

NB: Oscarteea 5/1 (laddys) – Hereford 14:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/2) -2pts

2 wins and 2 placed from 6 over todays’ trip. A decent 2nd when last seen in Feb’16 (winner has won 3 from 4 since and the race has produced 2 other winners) and both career victories have come on return from similar breaks.

IWAC: Willie Hall 10/1 (PP) – Ayr 13:20 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 14/1) -2pts

Twice a winner over course and distance on heavy ground, and has made the frame in 6 from 8 at Ayr. Trainer L Harrison has a winning strike rate of 42.86% over fences in the last 3 years at Ayr.

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (PP best price) -1.5pts

NAP 2/1 3rd

NB 5/1 Lost

West Of The Edge 15/8 – Ayr 14:30 Lost

Lough Derg Walk 5/1 – Ayr 15:00 Lost


RESULTS….

19/12/2016 PROFiT/LOSS: -7.5pts

18/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

17/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -12.66pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts


 

Sunday 18th December

NAP: Gurteen 7/2 (laddys) – Navan 13:20 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 7/2) -2pts

NB: Santiburi Spring 7/2 (B365) – Lingfield 13:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 7/2) -2pts


SUNDAY STATS RUNNERS….

12/1 and 6/5 winners from yesterday’s stats runners, along with placed efforts at 8/1 and 6/1. Hopefully more of the same from the stats on Sunday.

Fakenham

N P Mulholland 10 wins & 8 placed from 22 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Fakenham, a 45.45% winning strike rate & 81.81% place strike rate, and runs 3 over hurdles here today….

12:40 – Owners Day WON (SP 7/4)

13:10 – Soupy Soups WON (SP 8/15)

15:20 – Admiral Kid Lost

L Wadham 4 wins & 5 placed from 11 in the last 3 years over fences at Fakenham, a 36.36% winning strike rate & 81.81% place strike rate, and runs just 1 over fences here here today….

13:45 – Shanroe Santos Lost

A M Hales 3 wins & 4 placed from 9 in the last 3 years over fences at Fakenham, a 33.3% winning strike rate & 77.7% place strike rate, and runs just 1 over fences here here today….

14:50 – Running Wolf Lost

N Henderson 4 wins & 4 placed from 10 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Fakenham, a 40% winning strike rate & 80% place strike rate, and runs 2 over hurdles here today….

12:40 – Comely Lost

15:20 – Argante WON


RESULTS….

18/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

17/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -5.16pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Saturday 17th December

A great day of racing this Saturday…. some competitive stuff and some stand out short priced faves means just two main selections today. Having said this I will personally be following P Nicholls and H Fry stats runners at Ascot with anything 8/1 or above each way.

NAP: Ryedale Racer 4/1 (B365) – Haydock 12:55 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/2) -2pts

NB: Caid Du Berlais 9/2 (BV) – Ascot 13:15 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/2) -2pts


SATURDAY STATS RUNNERS….

ASCOT

P Nicholls 14 wins & 22 placed from 54 over fences in the last 3 years at Ascot, a 25.93% winning strike rate & 66.7% place strike rate, and runs 4 over fences here today….

13:15 – Caid Du Berlais (Nicholls won this race 5 times in the last 6 years, no runner in the 6thLost

13:50 – Orbasa Lost

15:00 – Le Mercurey & Irish Saint Lost

H Fry 9 wins & 4 placed from 19 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Ascot, a 47.37% winning strike rate & 68.4% place strike rate, and runs 2 over hurdles here today….

14:25 – Uknowhatimeanharry WON (SP 6/5)

15:35 – Jolly’s Cracked It Lost

HAYDOCK

J M Jefferson 3 wins & 5 placed from 11 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Haydock, a 27.27% winning strike rate & 72.7% place strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

12:55 – Ryedale Racer Lost

N Twiston-Davies 5 wins & 6 placed from 20 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Haydock, 25% winning strike rate & 55% place strike rate, and runs 2 over hurdles here today….

12:55 – Splash Of Ginge WON (SP 12/1)

15:15 – El Terremoto 3rd (SP 6/1)

NEWCASTLE

K Dalgleish 3 wins & 1 placed from 9 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Newcastle, a 33% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

12:05 – Durbanville Lost

A M Thomson 3 wins & 3 placed from 11 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Newcastle, a 27.27% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

14:20 – Berkshire Downs 2nd (SP 8/1)


RESULTS….

17/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -4pts

16/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

15/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

14/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +4.15pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: -1.16pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Friday 16th December

NAP: Claimantakinforgan 3/1 (laddys) – Ascot 15:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 3/1) -2pts

NB: Topofthegame 5/2 (B365) – Ascot 12:45 – 2pts win WON (SP 15/8) +5pts

IWAC: Holbrook Park 13/2 (B365) – Uttoxeter 14:55 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) -0.9pts

NAP 11/4 Lost

NB 5/2 WON

IWAC 13/2 2nd

Lough Derg Spirit 6/4 – Ascot 13:55 Lost


RESULTS….

16/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

15/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

14/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +4.15pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +3.16pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Thursday 15th December

NAP Scorpio Queen 3/1 (Betfred) Towcester 1210 -2pts win Lost (SP 5/2) -2pts
NB Duke Arcadio 10/3 (BV) Towcester 1240 -2pts win Lost (SP 5/2) -2pts
IWAC Riddlestown 5/1 (BV) Towcester 245 -2pts win 3rd (SP 8/1) -2pts


RESULTS….

15/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

14/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +4.15pts

13/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

12/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +19.52pts

11/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.77pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +3.06pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Wednesday 14th December

NAP: Drumacoo 5/2 (B365) – Newbury 14:00 – 2pts win Fell (SP 9/4) -2pts

NB: Royal McNab 7/2 (BV) – Musselburgh 13:40 – 2pts win WON (SP 12/5) +7pts

IWAC: Wenyerreadyfreddie 8/1 (WH) – Newbury 12:55 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 9/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) +1.15pts

NAP 5/2 Fell

NB 7/2 WON

IWAC 8/1 3rd

Beware The Bear 3/1 – Newbury 13:30 WON


WEDNESDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Musselburgh

R Menzies 3 wins and 4 placed from 13 in the last 3 years over fences at Musselburgh, a 23.08% winning strike rate and +£34 level stakes profit to a £1 stake over the same time period, and runs just 1 over fences here today….

13:40 – Royal McNab 4/1 (BV) – won this race last year off the same mark as today.

A M Thomson 6 wins and 8 placed from 19 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Musselburgh, a 31.58% winning strike rate and +£46.75 level stakes profit to a £1 stake over the same time period, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

14:50 – Arthurs Secret 9/2 (BV) 2nd

Newbury

N Henderson 22 wins and 21 placed from 65 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Newbury, a 33.86% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

12:55 – Wenyerreadyfreddie 8/1 (B365) 3rd

H Fry 7 wins and 10 placed from 20 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Newbury, a 35% winning strike rate, and runs just 1 over hurdles here today….

15:10 – Bags Groove 5/6 (WH) 2nd

Lingfield

J Gosden 37 wins and 49 placed from 128 over the last 3 years at Lingfield, a 28.91% winning strike rate, and runs 3 here today….

12:10 – Cercle D’or 5/4 (betfred) WON & Lady Hester 4/1 (B365) Lost

12:45 – Vivian Ward 9/2 (BV) Lost


RESULTS….

14/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +4.15pts

13/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

12/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +19.52pts

11/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.77pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +9.06pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Tuesday 13th December

A great day on Monday with the NAP & NB both doing the business and Sartorial Elegance making it 3 winners from 4 on the lucky 15. Tuesday’s racing looks average at best so my advice would be to keep stakes low and lets hope for a winner or two to keep building the profit.

NAP: Danceintothelight 5/2 (B365) – Catterick 12:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 9/4) +5pts

Danceintothelight has made the frame in 50% of his ten runs over course and distance and won this race last year. He is 7lbs higher here but still 2lbs less than his last winning mark, is re-united with jockey A McCain for todays’ race and has a great overall record here at Catterick. Furthermore, trainer D McCain has a 30% winning strike rate over hurdles in the last two weeks and a level stakes profit record of +£21.88 to a £1 stake over the last twelve months at Catterick so a big run looks assured.

NB: Clubland 10/3 (B365) – Southwell 12:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

Clubland has won five from sixteen at Southwell with three from five coming over course and distance. His first three races for new trainer G Moss have seen him go close on all three occasions, all at Newcastle, and he returns to Southwell 12lbs lower than his last winning mark. If running anywhere near his best, back at his favoured track, he is the one to beat here.

IWAC: Berlios 5/1 (B365) – Southwell 14:30 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 5/1) -2pts 

Won over course and distance on first run for T D Barron when last seen in March. Was off 4 months prior to that so the break shouldn’t be an issue and could prove better than his opening handicap mark of 73.

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) -0.9pts

NAP 5/2 WON

NB 10/3 Lost

IWAC 5/1 3rd

Barney Dwan 5/4 – Wincanton 14:10 Lost

Fergal O’Brien and Paddy Brennan have really struck up a fantastic partnership, posting a winning strike rate of almost 28% and level stakes profit of £123 over the last twelve months. They partner up again here with Barney Dwan who will probably go off at a short enough price but was in the process of running a huge race and giving a beating to Potters Legend before getting the final fence all wrong and ending up stopping dead before somehow carrying on to finish second. Potters Legend has won again since so the form looks decent and a similar run should see him right there at the business end today.


TUESDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Wincanton

P Nicholls 36 wins and 31 placed from 89 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Wincanton, a 40.45% winning strike rate, and runs 3 over hurdles here today….

13:10 – Movewiththetimes WON (SP 4/11)

15:40 – As And When & The Last But One Both Lost

A King 3 wins and 3 placed from 8 in the last 3 years over hurdles at Wincanton, a 37.5% winning strike rate, and runs 3 over hurdles here today….

14:10 – Wishing And Hoping Lost

Southwell

Jockey R Havlin has a 28.17 % winning strike rate over the last 3 years at Southwell, with a level stakes profit record of +£82.33 to a £1 stake over the same time period, and rides 2 here today….

15:00 – Macho Mac WON (SP 6/1)

15:30 – Trust Me Boy Lost

Catterick

S J Smith 10 wins and 8 placed from 23 in the last 3 years over fences at Catterick, a 43.48% winning strike rate & a level stakes profit record of +£37.63 to a £1 stake over the same time period, and runs 2 over fences here today….

13:20 – Delusionofgrandeur WON (SP 17/2) & Vintage Clouds 2nd (SP 13/8)


RESULTS….

13/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

12/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +19.52pts

11/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.77pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +4.91pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts

Monday 12th December

NAP: Shimba Hills 5/2 (B365) – Plumpton 15:30 – 2pts win WON (SP 2/1) +5pts

NB: Limited Reserve 4/1 (B365) – Ffos Las 14:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/2) +8pts

IWAC: Crievehill 6/1 (B365) – Ffos Las 13:15 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/2) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) +8.52pts

NAP 5/2 WON

NB 4/1 WON

IWAC 6/1 Lost

Sartorial Elegance 7/4 – Plumpton 14:00 WON


MONDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Ffos Las

1 race (15:20), 3 stats….

R Curtis 12 wins & 5 placed from 24 in the last 3 years over fences at Ffos Las (50% win strike rate, level stakes profit of +£39.71) – Kilcullen Flem Lost

N Twiston-Davies 10 wins & 16 placed from 32 in the last 3 years over fences at Ffos Las (31.25% win strike rate) – Hollow Blue Sky Lost

H Evans 3 wins from 7 in the last 3 years over fences at Ffos Las (42.86% win strike rate) – Tom Bach Lost

Plumpton

C Gordon 6 wins & 7 placed from 21 in the last 3 years over fences at Plumpton, a 28.5% win strike rate & level stakes profit of +£25.28, and runs just 1 over fences here today….

14:00 – Coolking Lost

Wolves

J Gosden 35 wins & 41 placed from 95 in the last 3 years at Wolves, a 36.8% win strike rate, and runs just 1 here today….

15:40 – Hertford Dancer WON


RESULTS….

12/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +19.52pts

11/12/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.77pts

DECEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +4.81pts

NOVEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +68.59pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +145.06pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +440.41pts