Tuesday 1st November

Apart from a few decent races at Exeter the racing isn’t too inspiring on Tuesday, and given the horrific sights from Kempton yesterday its been quite difficult to settle down and take a good look through the cards. Thoughts go out to Freddy Tylicki, Jim Crowley and their families, in the hope that their injuries aren’t as bad as feared.

NAP: Garde La Victoire 15/8 (PP) – Exeter 14:20 – 2pts win 2nd (SP evs) -2pts

NB: Galahad 7/2 (BV) – Wolves 14:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/2) -2pts

IWAC: Fort Worth 6/1 (B365) – Exeter 15:20 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 4/1) -2pts

Melbourne Cup (4am) – Secret Number 20/1 (sky) – 1pt e/w **available at 30/1 with B365 but they are only paying 3 places whereas sky are offering 6 places, P&L will be calculated based on 6places at 20/1** Lost -2pts


Quick round-up of October…..

Overall happy to come out of the month in profit and especially happy that we have managed profit on all 3 of the main selections over the course of the month (see below), although I have to admit to being slightly disappointed we have only finished on +21.62pts considering we were around the +50 mark half way though the month. On to November we go and the jumps racing really starts to step up a gear!! Lets hope that by the end of the month we are again sat nicely in profit and have all made a few ££’s towards Christmas 🙂

NAP

9 winning NAP’s from 30, a 30% strike rate at average odds of 3.38/1 (8.67pts profit)…. also had 7 NAP’s finish 2nd and 2 finish 3rd.

NB

7 winning NB’s from 30, a 23.33% strike rate at average odds of 4.65/1 (5pts profit)…. also had 4 NB’s finish 2nd and 4 finish 3rd.

IWAC

4 winning IWACS from 30 (plus one 20/1 2nd advised e/w), so 5 winning selections from 30, a 16.67% strike rate at average odds of 8.48/1 (9pts profit)…. also had 6 other IWAC’s place but were advised as win only.


RESULTS….

01/11/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -8pts

31/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +14.42pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +76.47pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +371.82pts

Monday 31st October

We head in the the final day of what has been a bit of a rollercoaster month just about in profit…. +7.2pts to be exact! We have 7.5pts staked for Monday, meaning that worst case scenario we would be as near as damn it even for the month if the worst came to the worst and we finish the day without a winner. Hopefully that won’t be the case, just one winner at the odds would ensure (small) profit on the month!

NAP: Shes A Star 11/4 (B365) – Galway 15:25 – 2pts win  WON (SP 7/2) +7pts

NB: Hash Brown 4/1 (coral) – Galway 14:25 – 2pts win   WON (SP 3/1) +8pts

IWAC: Olivers Hill 6/1 (B365) – Plumpton 14:40 – 2pts win  Lost (SP 4/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win  +1.42pts

screenshot_20161030-175114


RESULTS….

31/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +14.42pts

30/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.62pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +76.47pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +371.82pts

Sunday 30th October

NAP: Belmount 5/1 (sky) – Carlisle 14:45 – 2pts win Lost (SP 4/1) -2pts

NB: Knockgraffon 7/2 (sky) – Carlisle 13:35 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 11/4) -2pts

IWAC: Curragh Golan 6/1 (sky) – Wexford 15:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 7/1) -2pts

BIGGEST AND BEST CHEER OF THE DAY YESTERDAY…..

Screenshot_20161030-072113.png


RESULTS….

30/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

29/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.15pts

28/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +11.5pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +7.20pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Saturday 29th October

NAP: Cultivator 3/1 (SJ) – Ascot 16:45 – 2pts win WON (SP 15/8) +6pts

NB: Yorkist 3/1 (sky) – Ascot 14:25 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/2) -2pts

IWAC: Straight Of Magellan 6/1 (B365) – Ayr 14:05 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 4/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (sky best price) -0.85pts

NAP 11/4 WON

NB 3/1 Lost

Baydar 5/2 – Newmarket 16:05 Lost

Throthehatch 7/2 – Ayr 16:20 Lost


SATURDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Ayr

D Skelton 6W, 5P from 15 over hurdles in the last 3 years, 40% winning strike rate.

N G Richards 10W, 12P from 43 over hurdles in the last 3 years, 23% winning strike rate

Ascot

H Fry 9W, 3P from 17 over hurdles in the last 3 years, 52% winning strike rate.

P Nicholls 13W, 20P from 51 over fences in the last 3 years, 25% winning strike rate.

Wetherby

D Skelton 5W, 5P from 13 over hurdles in the last 3 years, 38% winning strike rate.


RESULTS….

29/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +1.15pts

28/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +11.5

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +13.20pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Friday 28th October

NAP: Wistari Rocks 5/2 (B365) – Uttoxeter 15:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/4) +5pts

NB: Rural Celebration 3/1 (B365) – Newcastle 18:45 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/2) +6pts

IWAC: Fairy Foxglove 10/1 (sky) – Dundalk 19:00 – 2pts win (1st reserve so will be NR if no others withdraw) NR


FRIDAY STATS RUNNERS…..

Wetherby

D Skelton 5 wins and 5 placed from 13 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Wetherby, a 38.46% winning strike rate & 76.92% place strike rate. H Skelton 6 wins and 4 placed from 14 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Wetherby, a 42.86% winning strike rate & 71.42% place strike rate.

They team up with 1 over hurdles today….

14:10 – Kafella 4/1 (BV) Fell

Uttoxeter

Jockey R Johnson has won the 14:35 race 5 times in the last 6 years. Today he rides Desert Retreat 8/1 (B365) Lost


RESULTS….

28/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +11.5

27/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +12.05pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Thursday 27th October

NAP: Last Tango Inparis 11/2 (B365) – Lingfield 16:20 – 2pts win Lost (SP 11/1) -2pts

NB: The Fresh Prince 4/1 (B365) – Stratford 14:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/1) -2pts

IWAC: Vic’s Last Stand 11/2 (coral) – Sedgefield 17:10 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 10/3) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win -1.5pts

_20161026_210620


RESULTS….

27/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

26/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +0.55pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Wednesday 26th October

Both the NAP & NB could only manage 2nd on Tuesday, decent run in particular by the NAP to run Value At Risk to a length but ultimately not good enough to get any points on the board. I’ve had a good look through the cards for Wednesday but have struggled to find anything to get too excited about or overly confident in!! As such, points have been reduced for the day and i’ve added the full list of shortlisted horses picked out in case anyone wants to take a close look. Keeping stakes low today, saving a few pennies for the better races towards the end of the week.

NAP: Red Rannagh (b365) – Kempton 20:15 – 1pt win Lost (SP 6/5) -1pt

NB: Reddot Dancer 11/2 (b365) – Dundalk 20:30 – 1pt win Lost (SP 7/2) -1pt

IWAC: Vaux 40/1 (betfair) – Kempton 18:45 – 0.5pts e/w NR

SHORTLISTED HORSES….

Dhajeej 2/1 (PP) – Nottingham 13:50

Sands Chorus 13/2 (PP) – Nottingham 14:50

London Prize 2/1 (BV) – Nottingham 15:20

Salto Chisco 11/8 (coral) – Fakenham 15:40

Today’s #PigeonSwoop4 selections 

_20161026_075926


RESULTS….

26/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

25/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.1pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +8.05pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Tuesday 25th October

NAP: Wishing And Hoping 5/2 (PP) – Bangor 14:40 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/2) -2pts

Wishing And Hoping has won three from six career races so far. He makes his chase debut here so there is always a risk that his jumping may not be foot perfect but he won on good ground on seasonal reappearance last year so the absence and ground conditions shouldn’t be feared and given the form of the King yard here at Bangor (five winners from eight in the last twelve months at the course, and a winning strike rate of 57% over the last three years over fences) he looks to be well placed to begin his chase career with a victory.

NB: Rolling Dylan 7/2 (B365) – Chepstow 13:30 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/4) -2pts

P Hobbs has a decent record with his runners over hurdles at Chepstow, winning ten and placing in ten from thirty two for a 31% winning strike rate over the last three years. His runner in the first race is Rolling Dylan who has made the frame in all five career runs to date and has placed in all three runs over a similar distance to what he encounters today. A winner on seasonal reappearance last year means that the 220 day absence shouldn’t pose too many problems and with more scope for improvement than a number of his rivals here he is taken to come out on top today.

IWAC: English Summer 16/1 (B365) – Catterick 16:00 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 20/1) -2pts

Richard Fahey’s English Summer who will need to improve on recent runs but has won three from four over course and distance and has winning form on soft and heavy ground. The yard tend to do well with runners at this course (63% of all 116 runners over the last three years have made the frame) so a chance is taken their runner can upset the odds and get back to form here.

LUCKY 15 (1.5pts total win) -1.1pts

_20161025_081835


RESULTS….

25/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.1pts

24/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +10.05pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Monday 24th October

NAP: Rebel Lightning 7/2 (B365) – Leicester 17:20 – 2pts win Lost (SP 15/8) -2pts

NB: Newtown Lad 7/2 (B365) – Ayr 16:10 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/2) -2pts

IWAC: Mubrook 14/1 (BV) – Ayr 15:05 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 9/1) -2pts


MONDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Ayr

Trainer D Skelton has won 5 and placed 4 from 13 over hurdles in the last 3 years for a 38.46% winning strike rate. Jockey H Skelton has won 5 and placed 2 from 11 over the same period. They team up with 2 over hurdles here today….

14:00 – Spiritofthegames 5/4 (B365) WON (SP 3/1)

14:30 – Ckalco Des Loges 5/4 (B365) 3rd (SP 5/2)

Leicester

R Fahey – 22.34% winning strike rate over the last 3 years at Leicester & level stakes profit of +£31.16 over the same time period.

Redcar

T D Barron – 20.37% winning strike rate over the last 3 years at Redcar & level stakes profit of +£73.38 over the same time period.


RESULTS….

24/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -6pts

23/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.68pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +17.15pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

Sunday 23rd October

NAP: I’m In Charge 2/1 (B365) – Wincanton 15:30 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 11/8) -2pts

NB: Robin Roe 9/2 (B365) – Aintree 13:40 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/2) +9pts

IWAC: Born Survivor 7/1 (coral) – Aintree 15:15 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 11/4) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) +0.68pts

NAP 2/1 2nd

NB 9/2 WON

IWAC 6/1 2nd

Rouge Devils 6/4 – Wincanton 13:50 WON


SUNDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Wincanton

J C Cann has won 3 and placed 6 from 10 over fences in the last 3 years at Wincanton (30% winning strike rate, 90% place strike rate), and runs just 1 over fences today….

15:30 – I’m In Charge 2/1 in to 7/4 2nd

Trainer P Nicholls has a 52% winning strike rate over the last 2 weeks and a 42% winning strike rate over the last 12 months at Wincanton. Jockey H Cobden has won 6 from 7 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Wincanton and has a 30% winning strike rate over the last 2 weeks. They team up with just 1 over hurdles here today….

13:50 – Rouge Devils 15/8 – P Nicholls has won this race twice in the last 3 years. WON

P Nicholls also run Bagad Bihoue in the 16:05…. he has won this race 4 times in the last 11 years. WON

Aintree

D Skelton has won 4 and placed 10 from 19 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Aintree (21% winning strike rate, 73% place strike rate), and runs 2 over hurdles here today….

13:40 – Robin Roe 9/2 in to 5/2 WON

15:15 – Born Survivor 7/1 in to 9/2 2nd

N Twiston-Davies has won the 14:45 3 times in the last 9 years and runs Double Ross today. Lost


RESULTS….

23/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.68pts

22/10/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7pts

OCTOBER PROFIT/LOSS: +23.15pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts