Friday 30th September

What a day Thursday turned out to be…. NAP, NB and IWAC all winners giving +22.3pts PROFIT!!! Thanks again to those who have passed on words of thanks and encouragement via twitter, great to see a few get on the singles and hopefully one or two decided to stick them all together for an 83/1 treble!

NAP: Hornsby 10/3 (B365) – Ascot 16:20 – 2pts win Lost (SP 4/1) -2pts

NB: Snag List 3/1 (B365) – Gowran Park 14:40 – 2pts win NR

IWAC: Unsuspected Girl 9/2 (B365) – Newcastle 18:20 – 2pts win NR

As we are safely in profit for the month i’m sticking 1pt on the below 39.5/1 four-fold (best price BV)…. couple of stats runners and others a little short for a single. -1pt

Hygrove Percy 5/4 – Fontwell 15:25 WON

Platitude 6/4 – Ascot 15:45 Lost

Workbench 15/8 – Fontwell 16:00 WON

Mad Money 6/4 – Hexham 16:45 Lost

FRIDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Newcastle

D Simcock has won 7 and placed 8 from 30 for a 23.3% winning strike rate at Newcastle. He runs 2 today….

17:20 – Loose Ends 7/1 (BV)

18:20 – Unsuspected Girl 9/2 (sky)

M Prescott has won 6 and placed 7 from 27 for a 22.2% winning strike rate at Newcastle. He runs 3 today….

18:20 – All The Rage 5/1 (B365)

19:20 – Starshell 16/1 (B365)

20:20 – Cocoa Beach 6/1 (B365)

Fontwell

N P Mulholland has won 12 and placed 11 from 37 over hurdles at Fontwell for a 32.43% winning strike rate. He runs 2 over hurdles today….

14:15 – Ochos Rios 9/2 (B365)

15:25 – Hygrove Percy 5/4 (Whill)

D Skelton has won 5 and placed 3 from 9 over fences at Fontwell for a 55.56% winning strike rate. Harry Skelton has won 6 and placed 1 from 9 over fences at Fontwell for a 66.67% winning strike rate. They team up with just 1 over fences today….

16:00 – Workbench 15/8 (B365)

N B King has won 5 and placed 5 from 15 over fences at Fontwell for a 33.33% winning strike rate and runs just 1 over fences today….

16:35 – Master Rajeem 16/1 (B365)

Hexham

B Ellison has won 8 and placed 12 from 30 over hurdles at Hexham for a 26.67% winning strike rate and runs just 1 over hurdles today….

13:50 – Ben Cee Pee M 13/2 (BV)

G T Bewley has won 6 and placed 2 from 12 over fences at Hexham for a 50% winning strike rate and runs just 1 over fences today….

16:10 – Whats Up Woody 6/1 (PP)

Gowran Park

E Doyle – 3 wins and 2 placed from 10 over hurdles for a 30% winning strike rate

J Harrington – 9 wins and 9 placed from 37 over hurdles for a 24.32% strike rate

W Mullins – 15 wins and 15 placed from 41 over hurdles for a 36.59% winning strike rate


RESULTS….

30/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -3pts

29/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +22.3pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +40.88pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +54.85pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +350.2pts

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Thursday 29th September

NAP Zymyran 2/1 (PP) Newcastle 14:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 11/10) +4pts

NB Barman 3/1 (coral) Warwick 15:40 – 2pts win WON (SP 15/8) +6pts

IWAC Come On Come On 6/1 (B365) Brighton 14:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 9/2) +12pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (PP best price) +0.3pts

NAP 2/1 WON

NB 11/4 WON

Suspect Package 3/1 – Newcastle 14:40 Lost

High Aspirations 9/4 – Warwick 15:05 Lost


RESULTS….

29/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +22.3pts

28/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -8pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +43.88pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts


 

Wednesday 28th September

A few decent priced stats runners that I think have good chances tomorrow hence the bigger priced main selections. At the prices we only need one to win for profit so i’m sticking with win only bets, but don’t be afraid to play each way if the bigger prices put you off.

NAP: Lord Franklin 8/1 (B365) – Nottingham 15:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 12/1) -2pts

NB: Timeless Art 7/1 (BV) – Nottingham 16:05 – 2pts win Lost (SP 6/1) -2pts

IWAC: Ancient Astronaut 10/1 (coral) – Nottingham 16:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 4/1) -2pts

Masterofdiscovery 11/2 (B365) – Nottingham 15:00 – 1pt win Lost (SP 10/1) -1pt

Master Ally 8/1 (B365) – Bangor – 1pt win 2nd (SP 8/1) -1pt

WEDNESDAY STATS RUNNERS….

Salisbury

13:50 – Ajman King (R Varian 21.57% winning strike rate at Salisbury in the last 5 years)

15:20 – Alizoom (R Varian 21.57% winning strike rate at Salisbury in the last 5 years)

Kempton

18:10 – Considered Opinion (R Beckett 19.45% winning strike rate at Kempton in the last 5 years)

18:40 – Panova (Sir M Stoute 19.4% winning strike rate at Kempton in the last 5 years)

20:10 – Dune Dancer (D R Lanigan 20.34% winning strike rate at Kempton in the last 5 years)

Nottingham

15:00 – Masterofdiscovery (C Cox 20.83% winning strike rate at Nottingham in the last 5 years)

15:30 – Lord Franklin (E Alston 26.92% winning strike rate at Nottingham in the last 5 years)

16:05 – Timeless Art (K Burke 22% winning strike rate at Nottingham in the last 5 years)

16:40 – Ancient Astronaut (J J Quinn 20% winning strike rate at Nottingham in the last 5 years)

Bangor

16:50 – Master Ally (R Curtis 9 wins and 11 placed from 25 for a 36% winning strike rate over hurdles at Bangor in the last 5 years)


RESULTS….

28/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -8pts

27/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +21.58pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts

Tuesday 27th September

A slightly better day in terms of the quality of racing for Tuesday, however despite putting the points back up to 2pts per tip i’d still advise to be very sensible with stakes as the threat of more heavy rain will likely play havoc with field sizes and throw up some interesting results.

NAP: Major Ivan 3/1 (B365) – Sedgefield 14:00 – 2pts win Lost (SP9/4) -2pts

In the last three years Malcolm Jefferson’s runners have won 40% of all runs over fences at Sedgefield and he runs just one over the larger obstacles today so Major Ivan is immediately of interest. He was still in touch with Out Sam before falling two from home last time out (on chase debut) and although is yet to win over todays’ trip he has placed in three from five and has a decent record here having won once and placed once from his two outings. Furthermore, his last career victory came on the back of a six month break so the fact that he hasn’t been since since January should be of no concern.

NB: Gone With The Wind 7/1 (Whill) – Ayr 17:30 – 2pts win NR (Ayr abandoned) 

Has raced over course and distance on two previous occasions, producing a win on soft ground and a placed effort on better ground. He is re-united with talented apprentice jockey Lewis Edmunds who was on board for the course and distance victory and has made the frame in 50% of all rides over the last two weeks.

IWAC: Jay Kay 8/1 (BV) – Ayr 17:00 – 1pt e/w NR (Ayr abandoned) 

Jay Kay has an excellent record here having made the frame in seven from eight, including three wins from six over todays’ trip. All career wins have come in lower grades than this but he’s proven on soft ground and with such a good record at the course he looks to be a decent each way shout at the early odds.

TUESDAY STATS RUNNERS….

WOLVES
R Varian has a 28.57% winning strike rate at Wolves over the last 5 years having won 38 from 133, and has won 4 from 11 across all AW courses in the last 2 weeks, a 36% winning strike rate.

He runs just the 1 at Wolves today….

18:10 – Dance Band 8/1 (B365)

R Teal has a 32% winning strike rate at Wolves over the last 5 years having won 8 from 25.

He runs just the 1 at Wolves today….

21:10 – Ormering 50/1 (BV)

Sir Mark Prescott has won 12 from 53 over the las 12 months at Wolves for a 22.64% winning strike rate.

He runs 2 at Wolves today….

17:40 – See You After 16/1 (B365)

20:40 – Cape Crystal 2/1 (BV)

SEDGEFIELD

Malcolm Jefferson has won 8 and placed 8 from 20 over fences in the last 3 years at Sedgefield, for a 40% winning strike rate.

He runs just 1 over fences at Sedgefield today….

14:00 – Major Ivan 3/1 (B365)

Dan Skelton has won 5 and paced 4 from 11 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Sedgefield, for a 45.45% winning strike rate.

He runs just 1 over hurdles at Sedgefield today….

15:05 – Alyasan 7/2 (BV)


RESULTS….

27/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

26/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -3pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +29.58pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts

Monday 26th September

Monday looks very tricky with only 3 meetings and Hamilton subject to inspection due to the expectation of heavy rain on already heavy ground. Therefore just the 3 selections today and dropped stakes to 1pt from the usual 2pts to preserve our decent monthly profit.

NAP: Kentford Heiress 7/2 (PP) – Newton Abbot 16:00 – 1pt win Lost (SP 10/1) -1pt

NB: Shahaama 7/2 (sky) – Hamilton 14:50 – 1pt win Lost (SP 8/1) -1pt

IWAC: Showmethewayavrilo 13/2 (B365) – Bath 17:10 – 1pt win 2nd (SP 9/2) -1pt

MONDAY STATS RUNNERS…..

BATH

The in-form Roger Varian has won 4 from 17 over the last 5 years at Bath for a 23.53% winning strike rate. Andrea Atzeni has a 23% winning strike rate over the last 12 months when teamed up with Roger Varian.

They team up with 2 at Bath today….

15:10 – Daily News 4/1 (sky) Lost

16:10 – Maazel 7/4 (B365) 2nd

Clive Cox has a 33% winning strike rate at Bath in the last 12 months (23.2% over the last 5 years).

He runs 2 at Bath today….

16:40 – Foxcatcher 10/1 (sky) 2nd

17:10 – Peter Park 9/1 (sky) Lost

NEWTON ABBOT

Paul Nicholls has won 14 and placed 17 from 43 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Newton Abbot, for a 32.56% winning strike rate. The yard are in great recent form having won 3 from 4 in the last 2 weeks.

He runs 2 over hurdles at Newton Abbot today….

15:00 – Rainy City 11/10 (BV) Lost

16:00 – Ruddy Article 8/1 (sky) Lost

D G Bridgewater has won 5 and placed 7 from 15 over fences in the last 3 years at Newton Abbot, for a 33% winning strike rate.

He runs just the 1 over fences today….

15:30 – Walden Prince 14/1 (BV) Lost

HAMILTON

Kevin Ryan has won 8 from 35 for a 22.86% winning strike rate over the last 12 months at Hamilton.

He runs 3 at Hamilton today….

13:50 – Perfect Symphony 9/4 (B365) 3rd

16:20 – Taking Libertys 4/1 (betfred) WON

16:55 – Strummer 10/1 (sky) NR

Mick Channon has won 4 from 16 over the last 5 years at Hamilton, for a 25% winning strike rate.

He runs 2 at Hamilton today….

14:50 – Shahaama 7/2 (BV) Lost

15:50 – Scrutineer 6/1 (BV) WON

Other trainers to note…. M Johnston has a 23.77% winning strike rate over the last 5 years at Hamilton, M Appleby has a 23.53% winning strike rate over the last 5 years at Hamilton.


RESULTS….

26/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -3pts

25/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -1.15pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +31.58pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts

Sunday 25th September

NAP: Asian Wing 4/1 (B365) – Musselburgh 16:45 – 2pts win NR

NB: Forgotten Rules 5/2 (PP) – Curragh 17:05 – 2pts win 2nd -2pts

IWAC: Black Bess 10/1 (coral) – Epsom 17:25 – 1pt e/w 2nd +1.5pts

Lucky 15: 1.5pts total win (B365 best price) -0.65pts

NAP 4/1 NR

NB 5/2 2nd

The Happy Prince 9/4 – Curragh 14:50 WON (SP 11/4)

Prosecute 7/2 – Epsom 15:45 Lost

SUNDAY STATS RUNNERS….

EPSOM

Roger Varian has been in good recent form and has won 9 from 43 over the last 5 years at Epsom for a 20.97% winning strike rate. He also has a 22.73% winning strike rate over the last 12 months when teaming up with Andrea Atzeni.

They team up with just 1 today….

14:40 – Defoe 9/2 (B365) 2nd

David Simcock has won 9 from 34 over the last 5 years at Epsom for a 26.47% winning strike rate (although is 0-3 in the last 12 months).

He runs 2 at Epsom today….

15:45 – Prosecute 7/2 (B365) Lost

16:20 – Viserion 14/1 (B365) NR

Ivan Furtado has only has 2 runners at Epsom but 1 was a winner meaning a 50% strike rate here. Silvestre De Sousa has been in great form in recent weeks and has a 28.57% winning strike rate at Epsom over the last 12 months.

They team up with 2 today….

15:15 – Arrowzone 11/2 (BV) 3rd

17:25 – Zaeem 33/1 (B365) Lost

Others to note at Epsom…. R Beckett 13 winners from 52 for a 25% winning strike rate, and C Appleby 4 winners from 20 for a 20% winning strike rate.

MUSSELBURGH

Michael Dods has won 13 from 59 over the last 5 years at Musselburgh for a 22% winning strike rate. Connor Beasley has won 20 from 90 over the same time period for a 22.22% winning strike rate.

They team up with just 1 today….

14:00 – Hot Hannah 7/2 (sky) WON

worth noting the trainer also runs Not Now Nadia in the same race.

John Feane has sent 4 runners to Musselburgh in the last 5 years, leaving with 3 winners and 1 placed for a 75% winning strike rate.

He runs 2 at Musselburgh today….

16:10 – Free Running 7/1 (BV) NR

16:45 – Asian Wing 4/1 (B365) (Danny Tudhope has won 2 & placed 1 from 4 when riding Asian Wing) NR

Others to note at Musselburgh…. M Appleby has won 6 from 25 for a 24% winning strike rate, and M Johnston has a 20% winning strike rate here over the last 5 years.

CURRAGH

Aiden O’Brien (20.16%) and Ryan Moore (25.49%) have by far the strongest records here over the last 5 years and have a winning strike rate of 30.82% over the last 12 months when teaming up.

Since taking up his trainers license, Joseph O’Brien has won 5 from 16 for a 31.25% winning strike rate at the Curragh.


RESULTS….

25/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -1.15pts

24/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +3.85pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +34.58pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts

Saturday 24th September

NAP: Best Of Days 5/2 (B365) – Newmarket 14:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 6/5) +5pts

Impressive 6 length winner on debut and ran a great race when just 2nd in the Group 3 Acomb stakes at York in August. Montataire should set a decent pace, allowing Best Of Days to pick him off late on, with the extra furlong promising to suit. Hugo Palmer and James Doyle both have good winning strike rates here at Newmarket.

NB: Tomily 10/3 (sky) – Chester 15:05 – 2pts win Lost (SP 11/4) -2pts

Won twice in May, both by 6 lengths, in races that have both produced subsequent winners. Struggled at Listed level last time out but is eased in grade and, drawn in stall 2, looks to have a great chance here for a trainer with a 17.5% winning strike rate at Chester in the last 5 years.

IWAC: Intransigent 11/1 (coral) – Chester 15:40 – 1pt e/w 2nd (SP 9/1) +1.75pts

Recent form is nothing to shout about but he’s won at listed level here at Chester, has made the frame in 50% of all runs at the course and both trainer (22% winning strike rate) and jockey (33%) have good records here too.

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (boyles best price) -0.9pts

NAP 5/2 WON

NB 10/3 Lost

Rex Bell 5/2 – Haydock 14:10 2nd

Fleeting Dream 7/4 – Ripon 14:40 Lost

SHORTLISTED HORSES….

Carry On Deryck 22/1 (laddys) – Newmarket 16:10 2nd

Dino Velvet 9/1 (betway) – Chester 17:25 Lost

SATURDAY STATS RUNNERS….

MARKET RASEN

Warren Greatrex has won 7 and placed 10 from 24 over hurdles in the last 3 years at Market Rasen for a 29% winning strike rate, and has a 24% winning strike rate over the last 12 months when Gavin Sheehan is in the saddle.

They team up with 2 horses over hurdles today….

16:20 – For Goodness Sake 11/4 (SJ) 2nd

16:55 – Deserter 2/1 (laddys) 3rd

David Pipe has won 5 and placed 5 from 14 over fences in the last 3 years at Market Rasen for a 35% winning strike rate. Jockey Tom Scudamore has won 9 and placed 9 from 31 over the same time period, for a winning strike rate over fences of 29%.

They team up with just 1 over fences today….

15:10 – Father Edward 7/1 (BV)

HAYDOCK

John Gosden has a 31% winning strike rate at Haydock over the last 5 years, having won 27 from 87, and a 22% strike rate over the last 12 months when teamed up with jockey Rab Havlin.

They team up with 3 at Haydock today….

14:10 – Rex Bell 11/4 (laddys) 2nd

15:20 – Crowned Eagle 6/1 (B365) 3rd

17:05 – Edward Lewis 7/1 (BV) 2nd

E F Vaughan has a 40% winning strike rate over the last 5 years, having won 4 from 10.

He runs just 1 at Haydock today….

17:05 – Primrose Valley 20/1 (BV) Lost

HAMILTON

William Haggas has been in excellent recent form and has a 36% winning strike rate over the last 5 years at Hamilton, winning 4 from 11.

He runs just 1 at Hamilton today….

16:40 – Dutch Destiny 15/8 (sky) 3rd

RIPON

William Haggas has been in excellent recent form and has a 36% winning strike rate over the last 5 years at Ripon, winning 18 from 50.

He runs just 1 at Ripon today….

14:40 – Fleeting Dream 7/4 (Whill) Lost

Tom Dascombe has been quiet in recent weeks but has an 18% winning strike rate at Ripon over the last 5 years, winning 9 from 50.

He runs 3 at Ripon today….

14:40 – Big Amigo 14/1 (BV) Lost

15:50 – Snap Shots 7/1 (B365) Lost

16:25 – Seve 9/1 (laddys) Lost


RESULTS….

24/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +3.85pts

23/09/2016 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

SEPTEMBER PROFIT/LOSS: +35.73pts

AUGUST PROFIT/LOSS: -76.31pts

JULY PROFIT/LOSS: +32.32pts

2016 PROFIT/LOSS (updated monthly): +13.97pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +309.32pts