Friday 1st July

NAP: Threat Assessed 7/2 (B365) – Sandown 16:30 – 2pts win NR

Beat some in-form rivals over nine furlongs here last time out and looked like an extra furlong would bring about further improvement. Has won two from four including a maiden on soft ground by 6 lengths.

NB: Pure Fantasy 5/2 (Whill) – Haydock 19:30 – 2pts win NR

Impressive winner over todays’ trip (is the only distance winner in the field) when last seen, beating a field that has already produced a subsequent winner. Needs to prove she acts on a softer surface but so do all her opponents.

IWAC: Newton’s Law 10/1 (BV) – Sandown 14:20 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 8/1) -2pts

Returned from a six month break with a promising run at Salisbury two weeks ago and has been dropped 2lbs. Now effectively 8lbs below last winning mark if considering Jordan Uys’ claim, has won on good-to-soft ground and has a 42% strike rate for making the frame over the minimum trip.

RESULTS….

01/07/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

30/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

JULY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS:

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: -12.99pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +57.96pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +353.31pts 

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Thursday 30th June

THURSDAY TIPS….

NAP: Sonnet 9/4 (Whill) – Haydock 17:00 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/2) -2pts

NB: Hatsaway 5/2 (sky) – Epsom 18:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 13/8) +5pts

IWAC: Harlequin Striker 6/1 (BV) – Epsom 20:50 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 7/2) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) -0.9pts

Winning Ways 11/4 – Haydock 14:30 Lost

Sonnet 9/4 – Haydock 17:00 2nd

Hatsaway 5/2 – Epsom 18:10 WON

Corinthian 11/4 – Newbury 19:30 2nd 

THURSDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

EPSOM

M Channon has a 17.35% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£20.58 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:45 – Dewan 20/1 Lost -1pt

20:50 – Fingals Cave 13/2 WON +4.06pts

R Hannon has a 23.08% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£3.46 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:45 – Metronomic 13/2 Lost -1pt

20:20 – Nosey Barker 9/1 Lost -1pt

HAYDOCK

W Haggas has a 30.67% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.15 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:30 – Winning Ways 11/4 Lost -1pt

T Dascombe has a 18.88% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£52.61 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:30 – Heavens Rock 10/1 Lost -1pt

YARMOUTH

R Varian has a 26.87% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

13:50 – Victory Angel 7/1 Lost -1pt

14:20 – Jumira Bridge 11/4 2nd -1pt

C Wall has a 23.01% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£11.63 over the same period, and runs the following:

13:50 – Seyash 33/1 Lost -1pt

14:20 – Marilyn 33/1 Lost -1pt

16:20 – Party Thyme 25/1 Lost -1pt

W Haggas has a 30.30% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£29.37 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – Mubtasim 4/1 WON +4pts

16:50 – Melabi 5/1 Lost -1pt

L Cumani has a 26.03% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£38.19 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – Spun Gold 25/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

30/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

29/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -6.6pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -12.99pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +57.96pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +353.31pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -2.94pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -19.75pts

Wednesday 29th June

WEDNESDAY TIPS….

NAP: Pecking Order 5/2 (BV) – Kempton 20:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 11/4) -2pts

NB: Gold Merlion 9/2 (Whill) – Bath 18:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

IWAC: Desert Strike 6/1 (B365) – Kempton 18:10 – 2pts win Lost (SP 8/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) -0.6pts

NAP 9/4 Lost

NB 9/2 Lost

IWAC 6/1 Lost

Bainne 4/1 – Fairyhouse 17:15 WON

WEDNESDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

BATH

M Prescott has a 34.04% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

19:30 – St Michel 2/1 Lost -1pt

M Johnston has a 26.15% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£29.08 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:30 – Gold Merlion 9/2 Lost -1pt

20:00 – Colour Play 7/1 Lost -1pt

CATTERICK

M Johnston has a 22.22% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£8.69 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Rusumaat 13/8 WON +1.62pts

15:30 – Ordinal 6/1 3rd +0.25pts

17:00 – Scarpeta 6/4 Lost -1pt

R Carr has a 15.20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£15.25 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:00 – San Cassiano 6/1 Lost -1pt

16:00 – Danish Duke 7/2 WON +3.5pts

16:30 – Exotic Guest 5/2 Lost -1pt

KEMPTON

R Beckett has a 20.54% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£60.13 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:40 – Lily Trotter 16/1 Lost -1pt

20:10 – Air Squadron 7/1 3rd (SP 15/2) +0.44pts

S Bin Suroor has a 27.63% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£53.40 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:40 – Winter House 4/1 Lost -1pt

J Fanshawe has a 22.74% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£85.73 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:40 – Pecking Order 5/2 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

29/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -6.6pts

28/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -13.09pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -3.19pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -16.81pts

@pickspaddock – Tues 28th June

16:45 – Brighton

Trainer Richard Hughes has a 27% winning strike rate at Brighton and sends Castle Talbot back here in the hope that he can follow up on his first career victory gained earlier this month. He took a little while to get going but finished very strongly to win a little easier than the official result suggests, finishing ahead of both Hawk Moth and Knight Of The Air who re-oppose here, so a 2lbs rise could prove lenient and the extra furlong should be right up his street.

Bloodsweatandtears has made the frame in five from eleven over course and distance, was only a couple of lengths behind the winner when fourth last time out, and is now only 3lbs above his last winning mark after a further 1lbs drop. He would need to show further improvement from his last run but Freddie Tylicki is an eye-catching jockey booking as he has made the frame in over 50% of rides here in the last twelve months.

Duke Of North has two career wins to his name, both over shorter than today’s trip, but has placed twice from three over a mile and hasn’t been far away at the business end on his last three runs and jockey Rhiain Ingram claims 7lbs which will do no harm.

Castle Talbot (WIN)

18:40 – Chepstow

This looks to be a pretty competitive race but, as with the previous race, we will be following trainer Richard Hughes with his five year old Wahaab. His overall career record isn’t the most inspiring but he has improved in each of his three runs since returning from a three month break and should go close if continuing on this upward curve. He finished third on his penultimate run (fifth place has won since) and was unlucky in running last time out, almost being knocked over before rallying to finish strongly just a half length behind the winner Titus Secret, form that could be boosted as Titus Secret runs over at Brighton earlier today.

Consistant is a last time out winner so is worthy of a mention, although has a 4lbs rise to contend with and is yet to win in six attempts here at Chepstow so the bigger threat could be Mrs Warren. She was third behind Castle Talbot (selection in the earlier race) when last seen and has been eased a further 1lb meaning she is now 10lbs lower than her last winning mark. Furthermore, trainer George Baker has a good strike rate and level stakes profit record at Chepstow.

Wahaab (WIN)

19:40 – Chepstow

Richard Hannon has a winning strike rate of 30% at Chepstow over the last twelve months and runs Feed The Goater here. He showed good determination to grab second last time out, on his first attempt over a mile, but was still over two lengths behind the winner. He has only had three career runs, chalking up one win and two seconds, so obviously holds some ability and is considered a live danger.

Weather Front was a ready winner last time out, overcoming a bumpy passage before finding a gap and staying on strongly to win by over a length. With ground conditions likely to be similar today he is another who should be involved at the finish, although has a 6lbs rise to contend with which could make him vulnerable.

Despite both the above looking like decent options on paper, I am going against both with Finelcity. The selection was an all the way winner over eight and a half furlongs on soft ground at Epsom in April and although has been beaten twice since, both were in higher grades and over further. Dropped back in trip and down in class for todays’ race he could prove to be the value option back at this level.

Finelcity (WIN)

Tuesday 28th June

TUESDAY TIPS….

A tricky looking day tomorrow, a few last time out winners who look vulnerable with penalties to carry and inconsistent form…. yet not much else in each race to be confident of either! 

NAP: Finelcity 6/1 (BV) – Chepstow 19:40 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/1) -2pts

NB: Castle Talbot 3/1 (sky) – Brighton 16:45 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 11/4) -2pts

IWAC: Wahaab 5/1 (betfred) – Chepstow 18:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 13/8) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (betfred best price) -1.5pts

NAP 6/1 2nd

NB 11/4 3rd

IWAC 5/1 Lost

Born Innocent 4/1 – Hamilton 16:00 2nd

TUESDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

BRIGHTON

R Hannon has a 25% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

14:45 – Stylish Minerva 18/1 Lost -1pt

15:15 – Glance My Way 13/2 Lost -1pt

17:15 – Bay Of St Malo 4/1 3rd -1pt & Star Jeanie 16/1 Lost -1pt

G Baker has a 20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£108.00 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:15 – Mendacious Harpy 16/1 Lost -1pt

17:15 – Boutan 14/1 Lost -1pt

CHEPSTOW

G Baker has a 20.61% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£51.75 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Altiko Tommy 33/1 Lost -1pt

18:40 – Mrs Warren 8/1 Lost -1pt

21:10 – Flutterbee 13/2

R Hannon has a 25.45% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£0.27 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Zebby Sizz 10/1 Lost -1pt & Restore 20/1 Lost -1pt

19:40 – Feed The Goater 5/2 Lost -1pt & Paco Pat 12/1 Lost -1pt

R Beckett has a 31.25% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.34 over the same period, and runs the following:

19:10 – Cause And Effect 7/4 Lost -1pt

HAMILTON

M Johnston has a 24.26% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£8.06 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Baileys Showgirl 7/2 WON (SP 15/2) +7.5pts

E Alston has a 17.53% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.70 over the same period, and runs the following:

16:00 – Barkston Ash 9/1 Lost -1pt 

16:30 – Silently 12/1 NR

RESULTS….

28/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

27/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -6.49pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -6.5pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -13.62pts

Monday 27th June

MONDAY TIPS….

NAP: Sabrewing 10/3 (sky) – Pontefract 15:40 – 2pts win NR

NB: Stoneham 7/2 (B365) – Musselburgh 18:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 3/1) +7pts

IWAC: Rodrigo De Torres 20/1 (Whill) – Musselburgh 20:10 – 1pt e/w NR

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (sky best price) -0.5pts

Sabrewing 10/3 – Pontefract 15:40 NR

Get Up And Dance 7/4 – Pontefract 16:40 Lost

Stoneham 7/2 – Musselburgh 18:10 WON

Merry Dancer 5/2 – Windsor 19:55 Lost

MONDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

WINDSOR

A Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

17:55 – Rose Briar 9/2 Lost -1pt

18:55 – Atalante 7/2 Lost -1pt

S Bin Suroor has a 35.85% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£30.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:25 – Most Celebrated 5/6 WON +0.83pts

PONTEFRACT

R Fahey has a 19.21% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£33.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Belle Travers 7/1 WON (SP 10/1) +6.25pts

14:35 – Scofflaw 6/4 Lost -1pt

15:40 – Early Bird 16/1 NR & Zaina Rizeena 12/1 Lost -1pt

17:10 – Energia Flavio 8/1 Lost -1pt

P Midgley has a 11.71% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£36.50 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:05 – Groundworker 20/1 3rd (SP 25/1) +2.62pts

W Haggas has a 28.26% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

16:40 – Get Up And Dance 7/4 Lost -1pt

MUSSELBURGH

P Kirby has a 21.74% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£37.56 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Goldan Jess 20/1 Lost -1pt & Perennial 11/1 Lost -1pt

R Fahey has a 23.68% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£78.02 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:40 – Heatongrad 5/1 Lost -1pt

19:10 – Gabrial The Terror 8/1 Lost -1pt

19:40 – Samran Says 12/1 Lost -1pt

20:10 – Desire 10/1 Lost -1pt

20:40 – Pushkin Museum 7/1 Lost -1pt

21:10 – Frap 4/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

27/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.5pts

26/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +1.01pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -2.3pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -7.12pts

Sunday 26th June

SUNDAY TIPS….

NAP: Seafront 4/1 (BV) – Curragh 15:45 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 7/2) -2pts

NB: Sea Wolf 5/1 (sky) – Curragh 15:15 – 2pts win WON (SP 11/4) +10pts

IWAC: Bold Thady Quill 14/1 (betway) – Curragh 17:55 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 10/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (BV best price) -0.5pts

NAP 4/1 2nd

NB 9/2 WON

What A Game 5/2 – Cartmel 14:20 2nd

Chemical Charge 7/4 – Curragh 14:45 2nd

SUNDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

WINDSOR

A Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:10 – St Mary’s 25/1 3rd +2.62pts

14:40 – This Is For You 11/4 2nd -1pt

16:15 – Kingston Kurrajong 7/1 WON +4.38pts

17:20 – Priors Brook 7/2 Lost -1pt

G Moore has a 16.39% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£40.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:40 – Goldenfield 5/1 Lost -1pt

16:45 – Art Collection 20/1 Lost -1pt

R Varian has a 26.83% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£17.91 over the same period, and runs the following:

16:45 – Alizoom 4/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

26/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.5pts

25/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -11.4pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -6.31pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: +2pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -4.82pts