Friday 1st July

NAP: Threat Assessed 7/2 (B365) – Sandown 16:30 – 2pts win NR

Beat some in-form rivals over nine furlongs here last time out and looked like an extra furlong would bring about further improvement. Has won two from four including a maiden on soft ground by 6 lengths.

NB: Pure Fantasy 5/2 (Whill) – Haydock 19:30 – 2pts win NR

Impressive winner over todays’ trip (is the only distance winner in the field) when last seen, beating a field that has already produced a subsequent winner. Needs to prove she acts on a softer surface but so do all her opponents.

IWAC: Newton’s Law 10/1 (BV) – Sandown 14:20 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 8/1) -2pts

Returned from a six month break with a promising run at Salisbury two weeks ago and has been dropped 2lbs. Now effectively 8lbs below last winning mark if considering Jordan Uys’ claim, has won on good-to-soft ground and has a 42% strike rate for making the frame over the minimum trip.

RESULTS….

01/07/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -2pts

30/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

JULY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS:

JUNE PROFIT/LOSS: -12.99pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +57.96pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +353.31pts 

Thursday 30th June

THURSDAY TIPS….

NAP: Sonnet 9/4 (Whill) – Haydock 17:00 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/2) -2pts

NB: Hatsaway 5/2 (sky) – Epsom 18:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 13/8) +5pts

IWAC: Harlequin Striker 6/1 (BV) – Epsom 20:50 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 7/2) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) -0.9pts

Winning Ways 11/4 – Haydock 14:30 Lost

Sonnet 9/4 – Haydock 17:00 2nd

Hatsaway 5/2 – Epsom 18:10 WON

Corinthian 11/4 – Newbury 19:30 2nd 

THURSDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

EPSOM

M Channon has a 17.35% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£20.58 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:45 – Dewan 20/1 Lost -1pt

20:50 – Fingals Cave 13/2 WON +4.06pts

R Hannon has a 23.08% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£3.46 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:45 – Metronomic 13/2 Lost -1pt

20:20 – Nosey Barker 9/1 Lost -1pt

HAYDOCK

W Haggas has a 30.67% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.15 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:30 – Winning Ways 11/4 Lost -1pt

T Dascombe has a 18.88% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£52.61 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:30 – Heavens Rock 10/1 Lost -1pt

YARMOUTH

R Varian has a 26.87% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

13:50 – Victory Angel 7/1 Lost -1pt

14:20 – Jumira Bridge 11/4 2nd -1pt

C Wall has a 23.01% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£11.63 over the same period, and runs the following:

13:50 – Seyash 33/1 Lost -1pt

14:20 – Marilyn 33/1 Lost -1pt

16:20 – Party Thyme 25/1 Lost -1pt

W Haggas has a 30.30% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£29.37 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – Mubtasim 4/1 WON +4pts

16:50 – Melabi 5/1 Lost -1pt

L Cumani has a 26.03% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£38.19 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – Spun Gold 25/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

30/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +0.1pts

29/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -6.6pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -12.99pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +57.96pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +353.31pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -2.94pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -19.75pts

Wednesday 29th June

WEDNESDAY TIPS….

NAP: Pecking Order 5/2 (BV) – Kempton 20:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 11/4) -2pts

NB: Gold Merlion 9/2 (Whill) – Bath 18:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

IWAC: Desert Strike 6/1 (B365) – Kempton 18:10 – 2pts win Lost (SP 8/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) -0.6pts

NAP 9/4 Lost

NB 9/2 Lost

IWAC 6/1 Lost

Bainne 4/1 – Fairyhouse 17:15 WON

WEDNESDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

BATH

M Prescott has a 34.04% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

19:30 – St Michel 2/1 Lost -1pt

M Johnston has a 26.15% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£29.08 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:30 – Gold Merlion 9/2 Lost -1pt

20:00 – Colour Play 7/1 Lost -1pt

CATTERICK

M Johnston has a 22.22% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£8.69 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Rusumaat 13/8 WON +1.62pts

15:30 – Ordinal 6/1 3rd +0.25pts

17:00 – Scarpeta 6/4 Lost -1pt

R Carr has a 15.20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£15.25 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:00 – San Cassiano 6/1 Lost -1pt

16:00 – Danish Duke 7/2 WON +3.5pts

16:30 – Exotic Guest 5/2 Lost -1pt

KEMPTON

R Beckett has a 20.54% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£60.13 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:40 – Lily Trotter 16/1 Lost -1pt

20:10 – Air Squadron 7/1 3rd (SP 15/2) +0.44pts

S Bin Suroor has a 27.63% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£53.40 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:40 – Winter House 4/1 Lost -1pt

J Fanshawe has a 22.74% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£85.73 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:40 – Pecking Order 5/2 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

29/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -6.6pts

28/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -13.09pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -3.19pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -16.81pts

@pickspaddock – Tues 28th June

16:45 – Brighton

Trainer Richard Hughes has a 27% winning strike rate at Brighton and sends Castle Talbot back here in the hope that he can follow up on his first career victory gained earlier this month. He took a little while to get going but finished very strongly to win a little easier than the official result suggests, finishing ahead of both Hawk Moth and Knight Of The Air who re-oppose here, so a 2lbs rise could prove lenient and the extra furlong should be right up his street.

Bloodsweatandtears has made the frame in five from eleven over course and distance, was only a couple of lengths behind the winner when fourth last time out, and is now only 3lbs above his last winning mark after a further 1lbs drop. He would need to show further improvement from his last run but Freddie Tylicki is an eye-catching jockey booking as he has made the frame in over 50% of rides here in the last twelve months.

Duke Of North has two career wins to his name, both over shorter than today’s trip, but has placed twice from three over a mile and hasn’t been far away at the business end on his last three runs and jockey Rhiain Ingram claims 7lbs which will do no harm.

Castle Talbot (WIN)

18:40 – Chepstow

This looks to be a pretty competitive race but, as with the previous race, we will be following trainer Richard Hughes with his five year old Wahaab. His overall career record isn’t the most inspiring but he has improved in each of his three runs since returning from a three month break and should go close if continuing on this upward curve. He finished third on his penultimate run (fifth place has won since) and was unlucky in running last time out, almost being knocked over before rallying to finish strongly just a half length behind the winner Titus Secret, form that could be boosted as Titus Secret runs over at Brighton earlier today.

Consistant is a last time out winner so is worthy of a mention, although has a 4lbs rise to contend with and is yet to win in six attempts here at Chepstow so the bigger threat could be Mrs Warren. She was third behind Castle Talbot (selection in the earlier race) when last seen and has been eased a further 1lb meaning she is now 10lbs lower than her last winning mark. Furthermore, trainer George Baker has a good strike rate and level stakes profit record at Chepstow.

Wahaab (WIN)

19:40 – Chepstow

Richard Hannon has a winning strike rate of 30% at Chepstow over the last twelve months and runs Feed The Goater here. He showed good determination to grab second last time out, on his first attempt over a mile, but was still over two lengths behind the winner. He has only had three career runs, chalking up one win and two seconds, so obviously holds some ability and is considered a live danger.

Weather Front was a ready winner last time out, overcoming a bumpy passage before finding a gap and staying on strongly to win by over a length. With ground conditions likely to be similar today he is another who should be involved at the finish, although has a 6lbs rise to contend with which could make him vulnerable.

Despite both the above looking like decent options on paper, I am going against both with Finelcity. The selection was an all the way winner over eight and a half furlongs on soft ground at Epsom in April and although has been beaten twice since, both were in higher grades and over further. Dropped back in trip and down in class for todays’ race he could prove to be the value option back at this level.

Finelcity (WIN)

Tuesday 28th June

TUESDAY TIPS….

A tricky looking day tomorrow, a few last time out winners who look vulnerable with penalties to carry and inconsistent form…. yet not much else in each race to be confident of either! 

NAP: Finelcity 6/1 (BV) – Chepstow 19:40 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/1) -2pts

NB: Castle Talbot 3/1 (sky) – Brighton 16:45 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 11/4) -2pts

IWAC: Wahaab 5/1 (betfred) – Chepstow 18:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 13/8) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (betfred best price) -1.5pts

NAP 6/1 2nd

NB 11/4 3rd

IWAC 5/1 Lost

Born Innocent 4/1 – Hamilton 16:00 2nd

TUESDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

BRIGHTON

R Hannon has a 25% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

14:45 – Stylish Minerva 18/1 Lost -1pt

15:15 – Glance My Way 13/2 Lost -1pt

17:15 – Bay Of St Malo 4/1 3rd -1pt & Star Jeanie 16/1 Lost -1pt

G Baker has a 20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£108.00 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:15 – Mendacious Harpy 16/1 Lost -1pt

17:15 – Boutan 14/1 Lost -1pt

CHEPSTOW

G Baker has a 20.61% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£51.75 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Altiko Tommy 33/1 Lost -1pt

18:40 – Mrs Warren 8/1 Lost -1pt

21:10 – Flutterbee 13/2

R Hannon has a 25.45% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£0.27 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Zebby Sizz 10/1 Lost -1pt & Restore 20/1 Lost -1pt

19:40 – Feed The Goater 5/2 Lost -1pt & Paco Pat 12/1 Lost -1pt

R Beckett has a 31.25% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.34 over the same period, and runs the following:

19:10 – Cause And Effect 7/4 Lost -1pt

HAMILTON

M Johnston has a 24.26% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£8.06 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Baileys Showgirl 7/2 WON (SP 15/2) +7.5pts

E Alston has a 17.53% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£21.70 over the same period, and runs the following:

16:00 – Barkston Ash 9/1 Lost -1pt 

16:30 – Silently 12/1 NR

RESULTS….

28/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -7.5pts

27/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -6.49pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -6.5pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -13.62pts

Monday 27th June

MONDAY TIPS….

NAP: Sabrewing 10/3 (sky) – Pontefract 15:40 – 2pts win NR

NB: Stoneham 7/2 (B365) – Musselburgh 18:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 3/1) +7pts

IWAC: Rodrigo De Torres 20/1 (Whill) – Musselburgh 20:10 – 1pt e/w NR

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (sky best price) -0.5pts

Sabrewing 10/3 – Pontefract 15:40 NR

Get Up And Dance 7/4 – Pontefract 16:40 Lost

Stoneham 7/2 – Musselburgh 18:10 WON

Merry Dancer 5/2 – Windsor 19:55 Lost

MONDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

WINDSOR

A Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

17:55 – Rose Briar 9/2 Lost -1pt

18:55 – Atalante 7/2 Lost -1pt

S Bin Suroor has a 35.85% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£30.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

20:25 – Most Celebrated 5/6 WON +0.83pts

PONTEFRACT

R Fahey has a 19.21% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£33.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – Belle Travers 7/1 WON (SP 10/1) +6.25pts

14:35 – Scofflaw 6/4 Lost -1pt

15:40 – Early Bird 16/1 NR & Zaina Rizeena 12/1 Lost -1pt

17:10 – Energia Flavio 8/1 Lost -1pt

P Midgley has a 11.71% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£36.50 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:05 – Groundworker 20/1 3rd (SP 25/1) +2.62pts

W Haggas has a 28.26% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

16:40 – Get Up And Dance 7/4 Lost -1pt

MUSSELBURGH

P Kirby has a 21.74% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£37.56 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:10 – Goldan Jess 20/1 Lost -1pt & Perennial 11/1 Lost -1pt

R Fahey has a 23.68% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£78.02 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:40 – Heatongrad 5/1 Lost -1pt

19:10 – Gabrial The Terror 8/1 Lost -1pt

19:40 – Samran Says 12/1 Lost -1pt

20:10 – Desire 10/1 Lost -1pt

20:40 – Pushkin Museum 7/1 Lost -1pt

21:10 – Frap 4/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

27/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +6.5pts

26/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.5pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +1.01pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -2.3pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -7.12pts

Sunday 26th June

SUNDAY TIPS….

NAP: Seafront 4/1 (BV) – Curragh 15:45 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 7/2) -2pts

NB: Sea Wolf 5/1 (sky) – Curragh 15:15 – 2pts win WON (SP 11/4) +10pts

IWAC: Bold Thady Quill 14/1 (betway) – Curragh 17:55 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 10/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (BV best price) -0.5pts

NAP 4/1 2nd

NB 9/2 WON

What A Game 5/2 – Cartmel 14:20 2nd

Chemical Charge 7/4 – Curragh 14:45 2nd

SUNDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

WINDSOR

A Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:10 – St Mary’s 25/1 3rd +2.62pts

14:40 – This Is For You 11/4 2nd -1pt

16:15 – Kingston Kurrajong 7/1 WON +4.38pts

17:20 – Priors Brook 7/2 Lost -1pt

G Moore has a 16.39% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£40.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:40 – Goldenfield 5/1 Lost -1pt

16:45 – Art Collection 20/1 Lost -1pt

R Varian has a 26.83% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£17.91 over the same period, and runs the following:

16:45 – Alizoom 4/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

26/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: +5.5pts

25/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -11.4pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -6.31pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: +2pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -4.82pts

@pickspaddock TV Tips – Sat 25 June

14:30 Newcastle

With six wins from nine on the all-weather , including four wins over todays’ trip, Pretend has a lot seemingly in his favour for the opening Channel 4 live race. The 2015 All-Weather Sprint Champion has James Mcdonald in the saddle, a jockey who has made the frame in nine of thirteen rides for trainer Charlie Appleby over the last twelve months. However he hasn’t raced since a disappointing effort at Windsor in June last year so may just need this run.

Mr Lupton steps up in class following a hard fought victory at York earlier this month and although is also making his all-weather debut he has to be considered having already made the frame in 66% of his career runs so far.

Preference is for the 2015 Group 2 Coventry Stakes winner Buratino who has a 50% winning strike rate over six furlongs, has placed in a Group 1 company and has some experience on an all-weather surface having won on racecourse debut at Chelmsford. He was beaten by Quiet Reflection last time out but she has since won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup so the form looks solid.

Buratino (WIN)

14:45 Newmarket

Our first race from Newmarket features just six runners and Bateel looks likely to go off a short priced favourite. He won all three races he contested last year, including one over course and distance, yet has found things a little tougher in two listed races this year. Proven on soft ground and with a hood fitted for the first time he could prove to be a worthy favourite but at odds approaching evens he looks too short for me.

Preference is for the John Gosden trained Mr Singh who although will need to show improvement from his last run he has won a Group 3 race here at Newmarket and is entitled to build on his seasonal re-appearance. Furthermore, Frankie Dettori returning to the saddle is seen as a big positive especially as the Gosden/Dettori partnership have a 30% winning strike rate over the last twelve months, so providing the soft ground doesn’t cause too many problems he should have the quality to emerge victorious here.

John Reel may be a bigger price but shouldn’t be discounted as he won on his only previous visit here (on his penultimate run) and has won twice on soft ground earlier in his career. He isn’t the most consistent of sorts but has two wins and a third from six runs over todays’ trip and tends to do well in smaller fields.

Mr Singh (WIN)

15:05 Newcastle

Blaine is one of two last time out winners in this fourteen strong field and has four wins over todays’ trip so has to go on the shortlist. An 11lbs rise for that last win will obviously make things more difficult but he has won off a higher mark in the past. He is passed over today as this latest win was the first time he has even made the frame in over eighteen months and this is his first attempt away from turf so doesn’t look guaranteed to follow up here.

The other last time out winner is Captain Colby who returns from a fourteen month absence for a new yard, actually looking to make it a hat-trick of wins. He has shown an ability to run well when fresh, has three wins from five career runs and won over six furlongs at the first time of asking when last seen. However, he makes his all-weather debut off a 6lbs higher mark having already been raised 9lbs for his first win so may prove vulnerable today.

Azamour should be fitter for a run at Newmarket in April and placed twice over todays’ trip on the all-weather in his early career but preference is for George Bowen. The Richard Fahey trained four year old was nine lengths behind Blaine last time out but has four wins and three placed efforts from thirteen runs over six furlongs and is proven on a synthetic surface having won at Wolves last year and looks a strong each way option in a tricky-looking race.

George Bowen (E/W)

15:20 Newmarket

Somebody To Love showed a fantastic turn of foot to win with ease at Sandown earlier this month so it’s not difficult to see her at the head of the market here. That was over five furlongs but the way she finished suggested today’s extra furlong should pose no problems.

However Marie Of Lyon is another who showed an impressive turn of foot to win at York two weeks ago despite getting in to a few traffic problems. The second and fourth from that race have gone on to win since and Trainer Richard Fahey has a level stakes profit record of over £40 to a £1 stake over the last five years here at Newmarket which makes the two year-old filly look better value than the favourite especially when considering she has already won over todays’ trip and on ground with a bit of give.

Shamsaya looks to be the best of the rest as she was a ready winner on debut and the third from that race has since placed in the Windsor Castle, although needs to prove she stays this extra distance.

Marie Of Lyon (WIN)

15:40 Newcastle

Sea Of Heaven hasn’t been seen in almost a year but but his form over his last five races reads 22121 with both wins coming over todays’ trip. He was finishing strongly when placed at Lingfield over an inadequate trip so the return to an artificial surface should hold no fears and he rates as a decent each way option despite not getting the best of draws.

Dannyday is another who has a tricky draw to overcome but showed he could drop in and assert when necessary when returning an extremely impressive four length winner at Chelmsford last time out. He put the race to bed nicely and was a further seven lengths clear of third yet has only been raised 6lbs so there looks to be plenty of scope for further improvement and the extra distance encountered here should provide no issues.

Poyle Thomas is a previous winner on an all-weather surface and a 60% career strike rate for top two finishes. Furthermore trainer Ralph Beckett has three wins and two placed efforts from five runners on an all-weather surface in the last two weeks so is another who looks to have a good chance of making his presence felt.

Of the remainder, Wordiness has won three from six over todays’ trip but has been largely out of sorts recently, while Stonecutter has won four from six on the all-weather including two over a two mile trip but has a 4lbs rise and this looks a tougher race.

Dannyday (WIN), Sea Of Heaven (E/W)

15:55 Newmarket

So Beloved was a winning TV tip on a previous article and although unable to follow up last time out he still finished ahead of many of those who re-oppose today and won a Group 3 in soft ground over todays’ trip last summer so I am keeping the faith that he can return to winning ways.

Breton Rock was less than a length behind So Beloved last time out and has proved extremely consistent over the last few years and has a 78% strike rate for making the frame over seven furlongs. A big concern is that he hasn’t won now since August 2014 and may have to play bridesmaid again today.

Dark Emerald has won two from three here at Newmarket and has placed at Group level so could be capable of running in to a place now returning from Meydan, while Muwaary ran well on return at York earlier this month following two years off but may find this coming too soon.

So Beloved (WIN)

16:15 Newcastle

The final live TV race is the Northumberland Plate, the first time it has been run on the all-weather.

Early favourite Steve Rogers has won his last three on the all-weather and following a disappointing run on turf last time out should post an improved effort now returning to a synthetic surface. In the last twelve months he has followed up a win with a poor run followed by a win again so if this trend continues he should be winning here, however has done all his winning in lesser grades with smaller fields than he will encounter here so I feel there is better value elsewhere.

Arch Villian has an excellent record on the all-weather with seven wins and two placed efforts from twelve runs. He returned from almost two years off the track with two wins earlier in the year and has been given a couple of months to fully recover from those exertions and could be a decent each way play at bigger odds.

Gang Warfare has won four from six on the all-weather and is two from two over two miles. He could only manage a midfield finish when last seen (beaten by a number of todays’ opposition) but this looked to have been down to the extra distance as well as ground conditions so he deserves another chance back at this distance on his preferred surface, despite a career high mark to contend with.

Nearly Caught finished third in this race last year and races off the same mark again today. He has won and placed on the all-weather previously so shouldn’t be too inconvenienced by the switch from turf, however is yet to win over two miles and has the widest of all draw to contend with too so is passed over today.

My Reward has been in great from since transferring yards and stepping up in trip, posting a win and close 2nd from his last two runs. He was an all-weather winner over a mile earlier in his career and although would have to improve again here he cannot be discounted in current form.

Nakeeta has two wins and three 2nds from his last five runs and has struck up a good relationship with jockey Royston Ffrench who continues in the saddle today. He ran an excellent second in the Chester Cup and will be a live danger if taking to the surface.

Arch Villain (E/W), Gang Warfare (E/W)

Saturday 25th June

SATURDAY TIPS….

NAP: Marie Of Lyon 7/2 (B365) – Newmarket 15:20 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/4) -2pts

NB: So Beloved 4/1 (PP) – Newmarket 15:55 – 2pts win Lost (SP 4/1) -2pts

IWAC: The Dukkerer 13/2 (sky) – Doncaster 18:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP 6/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (BV best price) -1.4pts

NAP 7/2 Lost

NB 4/1 Lost

Buratino 4/1 – Newcastle 14:30 Lost

Mr Singh 7/2 – Newmarket 14:45 NR

SATURDAY 5-for-fun…. (any 1 winner will give us profit across the 5)

George Bowen 13/2 (B365)- Newcastle 15:05 – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

Johann Bach 8/1 (Whill) – Curragh 15:35 – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

Sea Of Heaven 9/1 (B365) – Newcastle 15:40 – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

Lincoln 9/1 (Whill) – Windsor 15:50 – 0.5pts e/w Lost -1pt

Malaysian Boleh 11/2 (sky) – Lingfield 18:10 – 0.5pts e/w NR

SATURDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

CHESTER

M Johnston has a 16.84% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£31.40 over the same period, and runs the following:

13:50 – Love Oasis 8/1 Lost -1pt

14:55 – Dawaa 8/1 Lost -1pt

15:30 – Sennockian Song 13/2 Lost -1pt

A Balding has a 21.01% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£27.21 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – Predetermined 13/8 2nd -1pt

15:30 – Man Look 5/1 WON +3.12pts

17:10 – Communicator 11/1 3rd +0.88pts

DONCASTER

R Varian has a 24.77% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£59.27 over the same period, and runs the following:

19:55 – Spanish City 7/4 Lost -1pt

20:25 – Raising Sand 5/1 Lost -1pt

NEWMARKET

J Gosden has a 18.45% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£33.71 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:10 – Hartswell 13/2 Lost -1pt & Khalidi 7/2 3rd -1pt

14:45 – Mr Singh 7/2 NR

15:55 – Muwaary 5/1 Lost -1pt

16:25 – California 10/1 NR

17:35 – Chastushka 13/8 Lost -1pt

R Fahey has a 16.05% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£41.38 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:20 – Marie Of Lyon 7/2 Lost -1pt

15:55 – Birchwood 8/1 Lost -1pt

M Johnston has a 16.67% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£18.57 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:10 – Thomas Cranmer 14/1 NR

17:00 – Master Of Finance 12/1 Lost -1pt

WINDSOR

G Moore has a 16.39% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£40.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:40 – German Whip 28/1 Lost -1pt

A Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:40 – Dark Shot 8/15 WON +0.53pts

15:15 – Passover 10/1 2nd +0.75pts

16:20 – Merry Me 12/1 Lost -1pt

S Bin Suroor has a 35.85% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£30.22 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:50 – Kickboxer 9/1 Lost -1pt

RESULTS….

25/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -11.4pts

24/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -5.22pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: -11.81pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: -10.72pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -6.82pts

Friday 24th June

FRIDAY TIPS….

NAP: Dew Pond 11/4 (coral) – Doncaster 16:50 – 2pts win 3rd (SP 9/4) -2pts

NB: Knight Owl 5/2 (sky) – Yarmouth 16:30 – 2pts win Lost (SP 6/5) -2pts

IWAC: Tears Of The Sun 8/1 (PP) – Newcastle 19:45 – 2pts win Lost (SP 8/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pt total win (coral best price) +0.78pts

Hornsby 3/1 – Doncaster 15:45 WON (SP 3/1)

Dew Pond 11/4 – Doncaster 16:50 3rd

Knight Owl 5/2 – Yarmouth 16:30 Lost 

Sainted 5/2 – Newmarket 18:55 WON (SP 11/4)

FRIDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

CHESTER

M Johnston has a 16.84% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£31.40 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:35 – Galesburg 7/2 Lost -1pt

19:05 – Miss Danby 7/2 Lost -1pt

19:35 – Yorkindred Spirit 16/1 Lost -1pt & Lido Lady 11/1 Lost -1pt

A Balding has a 21.01% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£27.21 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:35 – Viscount Barfield 5/1 WON +3.12pts

NEWMARKET

M Johnston has a 16.67% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£18.57 over the same period, and runs the following:

19:25 – Regal Monarch 5/2 WON +2.5pts

J Gosden has a 18.45% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£33.91 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:55 – Generalship 3/1 Lost -1pt

19:25 – Muaither 10/3 Lost -1pt

YARMOUTH

L Cumani has a 26.03% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£38.19 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:20 – Al 5/1 NR

W Haggas has a 30.30% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£29.37 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:55 – Pick Your Choice 2/1 WON (SP 3/1) +3pts

17:35 – Olympic Runner 9/4 WON (SP 10/3) +3.33pts

R Varian has a 26.87% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs the following:

15:55 – Mujassam 7/1 Lost -1pt

24/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -5.22pts

23/6/16 PROFIT/LOSS: -6.9pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +0.41pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts 

2016 PROFIT/LOSS: +70.95pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts 

TODAY’S STATS PROFIT/LOSS: +4.95pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): +3.9pts