Wednesday 1st June

Well its been a rollercoaster couple of months but now the flat season is fully underway our results, consistency and confidence has definitely improved!! We have finished the month on + 120.80pts profit which is our best ever month since SimplyHorseTips began. Here are a few key results for the month:

NAP – 11 winners from 31 (35% strike rate) at average odds of 3/1 +£29.71pts based on 2pts per NAP

NB – 7 winners from 29 (24.14% strike rate) at average odds of 4.4/1 +19pts based on 2pts per NB

IWAC – 7 winners from 30 (23.33% strike rate) at average odds of 10/1 +£37.37pts based on 2pts per IWAC (also had a 25/1 placed, advised at 1pt e/w)

I just want to say a huge thanks to the followers who have stuck with me through the last couple of months and also to others who have voiced their support and thanks over the last few weeks. On to June we go now +366.30pts profit since Jan 2015!!

NAP: Intimation 5/2 (sky) – Nottingham 16:00 – 2pts win NR

NB: Darma 7/2 (B365) – Nottingham 14:30 – 2pts win WON (SP 3/1) +7pts

IWAC: Bamako Moriviere 13/2 (PP) – Punchestown 20:20 – 2pts win WON (SP 4/1) +13pts

Stars N Angels 15/2 (PP) – Nottingham 15:00 – 1pt e/w NR

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (BV best price) +4.27pts

NAP 5/2 NR

NB 10/3 WON

Allez Vic 10/3 – Cartmel 15:50 Lost

Gowanauthat 7/2 – Fontwell 16:40 WON

WEDNESDAY STATS….

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats (NOT TIPS):

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

NOTTINGHAM

Clive Cox has a 22.95% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£27.45 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:00 – PERFECT QUEST 8/1 3rd (SP 7/1) +1pt

16:00 – TEARS OF THE SUN 14/1 2nd (SP 10/1) +2.5pts

16:00 – WEETLES 12/1 3rd (SP 6/1) +2pts

Michael Appleby has a 17.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£52.63 over the same period, and runs just one:

15:00 – STARS N ANGELS 15/2 NR

RIPON

David O’Meara has a 17.92% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£17.90 over the same period, and runs the following:

18:30 – SAVANNAHS DREAM 7/1 Lost -1pt

19:30 – MON BEAU VISAGE 33/1 Lost -1pt

20:00 – ECCLESTON 6/1 Lost -1pt

20:00 – HIGHLAND ACCLAIM 20/1 Lost -1pt

21:00 – CARPE VITA 11/4 Lost -1pt

Ann Duffield has a 15.85% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£6.95 over the same period, and runs the following:

19:30 – ENCANTAR 20/1 NR

19:30 – CUPPATEE 25/1 LOST -1pt

William Haggas has a 34.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs just one:

20:30 – FASTNET TEMPEST 6/4 2nd -1pt

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +24.27pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +5.8pts

JUNE TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +24.27pts

MAY PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts

STATS PROFIT/LOSS (June): -1.5pts

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Tuesday 31st May

NAP: Pietrafiore 7/2 (sky) – Wolves 20:10 – 2pts win WON (SP 15/8) +7pts

NB: Lucky Clover 3/1 (B365) – Wolves 21:10 – 2pts win Lost (SP 7/2) -2pts

IWAC: Forster Square 25/1 (BV) – Leicester 14:30 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 40/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) +2.8pts

NAP 7/2 WON

NB 3/1 Lost

Kayla 2/1 – Towcester 15:10 WON

Jadaayil 9/4 – Leicester 15:30 NR

LEICESTER

Charlie Hills has a 27.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£11.02 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:00 – PARYS MOUNTAIN 16/1 2nd (SP 16/1)

ATR notes – Foaled February 25. €100,000 yearling, Dark Angel colt. Dam, ran twice, out of smart 2-y-o 7f winner Belle Genius.

14:30 – MAGILLEN 4/1 2nd (SP 5/1)

ATR notes – Half-brother to several winners, including useful 2-y-o 5f winner Primo Lady and 6f winner Zhiggy’s Stardust, while dam was also successful at 2 yrs. Intriguing debutant with Frankie aboard.

15:00 – SERRADURA 12/1 NR

ATR notes – Made a winning debut at Newbury in July, but that wasn’t a strong maiden for the track and she has suffered 2 heavy defeats in handicaps since.

15:30 – JADAAYIL 9/4 NR

ATR notes – Promising type. Off the mark on return when taking a 10-runner maiden at Newmarket (7f, good to soft) 47 days ago. Should be better to come now handicapping and is a leading contender.

Richard Fahey has a 20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£101.03 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:30 – FORSTER SQUARE 22/1 Lost (SP 40/1)

ATR notes – Foaled March 2. 16,000 gns yearling, resold 35,000 gns yearling, Dandy Man colt. Dam 13f winner. Yard boasts 18% strike rate with youngsters here in recent seasons and market check advised.

15:00 – EARLY BRID 6/1 NR

ATR notes – Ended juvenile campaign on a high when landing a 5f Catterick maiden in October, and stepped up on reappearance when third at Thirsk 3 weeks ago. Worth another try at 6f.

15:30 – ZAINA RIZEENA 11/1 NR

ATR notes – Beverley maiden winner (7.5f) last summer and shaped as if needing the run when seventh of 12 in handicap at Newmarket (8f, good) 19 days ago. Still open to improvement and not discounted.

15:30 – SUNNUA 16/1 NR

ATR notes – Off the mark on her final start last term when scoring at Catterick (7f, heavy) in October. Not seen since though and lacks the scope of some of her rivals.

LINGFIELD

Stuart Williams has a 20.98% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£53.51 over the same period, and runs just one:

20:20 – LITTLE LORD NELSON 8/1 Lost (SP 7/1)

ATR notes – 9/2, respectable fourth of 8 in handicap at Chelmsford (8f) 33 days ago.

REDCAR

Bryan Smart has a 12.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£35.81 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:20 – LIL’S AFFAIR 12/1 Lost (SP 12/1)

ATR notes – Closely related to 3 winners, including winner up to 9f Imshivalla (2-y-o 7f winner) and 1m/9f winner Makinson Lane and half-sister to 7f winner Dustland Fairytale. Stable capable of readying one.

17:55 – COMPTON RIVER 13/2 Lost (SP 7/1)

ATR notes – Still a maiden following 21 attempts but respectable effort when second of 14 in handicap (7/1) at Catterick (5f, good to firm) 11 days ago. Reproduction of that form would put him in the picture.

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +5.8pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +4.5pts

MAY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +120.80pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +366.30pts

Monday 30th May

NAP: Terhaal 5/2 (B365) – Leicester 15:20 – 2pts win Lost (SP 9/4) -2pts

NB: Distant Sound 10/3 (betway) – Huntingdon 15:10 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 9/2) -2pts

IWAC: Grand Canyon 11/2 (betway) – Redcar 14:50 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/2) +11pts

Fear Or Favour 8/1 (laddys) – Windsor 17:35 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 15/2) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (betway best price) -0.5pts

NAP 5/2 Lost

NB 10/3 2nd

Taneen 9/2 – Leicester 16:25 WON

American Artist 4/1 – Windsor 16:35 Lost

MONDAY STATS….

LEICESTER

Richard Fahey has a 20% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£101.03 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:10 – Rosebride 5/1 2nd (SP 10/1)

ATR notes – Foaled March 24. Mayson filly. Half-sister to several winners, including useful 8.6f-11.5f winner Party Doctor and 5f-7f winner Firstknight. Interesting newcomer from in-form yard.

14:45 – Jersey Roy 4/1 Lost (SP 7/2)

ATR notes – Still a maiden after 5 starts and hasn’t shown a great deal in a pair of starts this year. Can’t be totally discounted however given the moderate nature of this contest.

15:20 – Normandy Knight 10/1 WON (SP 6/1)

ATR notes – Dual scorer (at up to 8.5f) last summer but hasn’t really threatened either start this term and looks in the grip of the assessor.

Charlie Hills has a 27.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£11.02 over the same period, and runs just one:

15:55 – Moorside 11/10 Lost (SP 4/6)

ATR notes – Promising type. Much-improved effort when second in Cheshire Oaks at Chester (11.4f, good) 26 days ago, suited by increase in trip, and has to be of serious interest back in maiden company.

Sir Michael Stoute has a 30.30% winning strike rate here over the last five years and runs just one:

15:55 – Ruscombe 12/1 3rd (SP 8/1)

ATR notes – Dansili filly. Half-sister to several winners, including high-class winner up to 1½m Sea Moon and very smart winner up to 14.6f Brian Boru. Stable in good form and is a fascinating newcomer.

REDCAR

David O’Meara has a 17% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£20.29 over the same period, and runs the following:

12:45 – Mary Brady 6/1 Lost (SP 7/1)

ATR notes – Camacho half-sister to useful 5f (including at 2 yrs) winner Union Rose. Dam unraced half-sister to smart winner up to 6f Taajub. Bred to go a bit and respected on debut for top yard.

14:15 – Tawayna 5/1 Lost (SP 8/1)

ATR notes – Expensive purchase who made it third time lucky in maidens at Ripon (5f) last August (final start for William Haggas). Joined another top yard since and surely has more to offer this year. Hood added.

14:50 – Grand Canyon 11/2 WON (SP 7/2)

ATR notes – Having just second start for this excellent yard when second over this trip at Ayr (soft ground) last time and could easily have more of come given his lightly-raced profile.

15:25 – Tawdeea 7/1, Hit The Jackpot 16/1, Fattsota 28/1 & Birdman 25/1 all lost

16:00 – Ingleby Hollow 7/2 2nd (SP 11/4)

ATR notes – Won at Pontefract (12f) last summer and runner-up at up to 2m on next 4 starts. Likely to figure if ready to roll on reappearance.

Bryan Smart has a 12.69% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£20.29 over the same period, and runs just one today:

12:45 – Whiteandgold 9/4

ATR notes – Stepped up on debut when pushing a previous winner all the way in a 5f Hamilton minor event 17 days ago. Likely there’s more to come and looks the one to beat.

WINDSOR

Andrew Balding has a 21.23% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£25.47 over the same period, and runs the following:

14:55 – Charmy 10/1 3rd (SP 10/1)

ATR notes – Has achieved similar form all 5 starts in maidens so far. No surprise a hood is fitted for handicap bow given she was too free last time.

15:30 – Verne Castle 7/1 3rd (SP 8/1)

ATR notes – Didn’t shape badly in couple of outings at 2 yrs, and promising start to 2016 when runner-up in a maiden at Lingfield (5f, AW). Has since flopped on handicap debut.

16:35 – Passover 14/1 3rd (SP 25/1)

ATR notes – Enjoyed a very productive 2015, winning 4 1¼m handicaps. Possibly still working his way back to peak fitness this term.

Roger Varian has a 26.83% winning strike rate here over the last five years, posting level stakes profit of +£17.91 over the same period, and runs the following:

15:30 – Spanish City 6/4 WON (SP 5/6)

ATR notes – All the rage in the betting following a promising debut but could manage only second at Newcastle when last seen in September. That race worked out quite well, and there’s more to come.

16:35 – American Artist 9/2 Lost (SP 11/4)

ATR notes – Progressive in handicaps last year, winning 3 times. Raised his game further when only narrowly denied on recent Doncaster return and Chester run was encouraging too.

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +4.5pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: -8.8pts

MAY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +115.00pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +245.50pts

Sunday 29th May

NAP: Yuften 4/1 (sky) – Naas 14:35 – 2pts win Lost (SP 13/2) -2pts

NB: Fiddlers Reel 6/1 (betfred) – Kelso 15:35 – 2pts win PU (SP 5/1) -2pts

IWAC: Kodicil 16/1 (BV) – Uttoxeter 15:45 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 16/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Laddys best price) -0.8pts

NAP 4/1 Lost

NB 6/1 Lost

Only For Love 2/1 – Uttoxeter 15:15 WON

Antony 4/1 – Fontwell 15:55 NR

Double: 4.66/1 (Whill) – 2pts win Lost -2pts

Lycidas 11/8 – Kelso 14:00 WON

Washington DC 11/8 – Naas 16:15 2nd

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: -8.8pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +8.4pts

MAY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +110.5pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +245.50pts

Stats Horses

Afternoon all!!! I was asked earlier today if I’d been keeping a record of profit/loss on the stats horses posted on the blog…. and in all honesty the answer was no. The question did get me thinking about whether the stats were actually bringing a positive return so I have been back to the 1st of May and have to say I have been pleasantly surprised with the results.

Points system used, purely as a way of adding a record to the stats:

under 5/1 – 1pt win

5/1 or over – 0.5pts each way

*(SP prices used to calculate return if SP was bigger than the original price posted, and all each way returns are at 1/4 odds)

1st May to 27th May PROFIT +85.85pts!!!

With this in mind, from 1st June I will be adding a running P&L on the stats horses…. However followers need to remember that THESE ARE NOT MAIN TIPS. I will not be betting on all of the stats horses and I would not advise any of you to either – some days there have been 20+ runners which would increase the daily stakes to an unrealistic level.

Please remember that the stats are purely based on trainers winning strike rates and level stakes profit at the courses in question, from the beginning of the 2011 flat season to the end of the 2015 flat season. They do not take in to account current form/weight/jockey bookings etc and are added to the blog as a guide for trainers who are consistent at certain courses.

 

 

Saturday 28th May

NAP: Out And About 11/2 (betfred) – Haydock 17:30 – 2pts win WON (SP 7/2) +11pts

NB: Buratino 11/2 (B365) – Haydock 15:45 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

IWAC: Plagiarism 16/1 (boyles) – Chester 14:15 – 2pts win Lost (SP 10/1) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (Whill best price) +1.4pts

NAP 11/2 WON

NB 11/2 Lost

Boater 5/2 – Beverley 15:00 Lost

Starchitect 2/1 – Salisbury 19:20 WON

SATURDAY STATS….

Beverley

13:50 – Geno 11/4 WON (SP evs)

14:25 – The Last Lion 2/1 2nd (SP 9/4)

1500 – Boater 11/4 Lost

15:35 – Donna Graciosa 11/2 Lost

16:45 – Mercury 14/1 Lost

Catterick

14:20 – Peachey Carnehan 5/6 Lost & Travel Talk 18/1 Lost

15:30 – Surewecan 8/1 NR

16:40 – Beardwood 10/1 Lost

17:15 – Exotic Guest 10/1 Lost

17:45 – Wishing Tree 33/1 Lost

Chester

13:45 – Berkshire Boy 7/1 Lost & Havelock 7/4 2nd (SP 9/4)

14:15 – Secret Hint 4/1 WON (SP 11/2) & Plagiarism 16/1 Lost

15:25 – Zand 10/1 Lost & Yorkidding 5/1 Lost

16:00 – Loaded 5/1 Lost

16:35 – Second Serve 4/1 Lost & Four Mile Beach 11/1 Lost

Haydock

14:00 – Mount Tahan 20/1 Lost & Captain Revelation 18/1 Lost

14:35 – Journey 6/4 WON & Mill Springs 16/1 Lost

15:10 – Adaay 7/1 Lost & Johnny Barnes 25/1 NR

15:45 – Ajaya 12/1 Lost & Taneen 28/1 NR

16:20 – Dodgy Bob 16/1 NR

16:55 – Gambit 11/2 Lost

17:30 – Golden Glimmer 11/1 Lost, Out And About 11/2 WON & Captain Dion 16/1 Lost

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +8.4pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: -6.06pts

MAY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +119.3pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +245.50pts

Friday 27th May

NAP: Nags Wag 2/1 (betfair) – Brighton 14:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP 13/8) -2pts

NB: El Astronaute 10/3 (Whill) – Musselburgh 19:40 – 2pts win Lost (SP 5/1) -2pts

IWAC: Dutch Gallery 16/1 (boyles) – Haydock 15:10 – 1pt e/w Lost (SP 13/2) -2pts

LUCKY 15: 1.5pts total win (BV best price) -0.06pts

NAP 15/8 Lost

NB 10/3 Lost

Pour La Victoire 15/8 – Brighton 15:20 WON (SP 9/4)

Peloponnese 13/8 – Pontefract 20:30 WON (SP 10/11)

FRIDAY STATS….

Bath

15:30 – Glennah 12/1 Lost

16:00 – Malmoosa 7/1 Lost

Brighton

14:50 – Nags Wag 15/8 & Al Sailiyah 7/2 both lost

16:50 – George Baker 6/1 lost

Haydock

14:10 – Cajmere 20/1 3rd 

14:40 – Dream Of Dreams 7/4 WON (SP 2/1) & Spiritous 10/3 3rd

15:10 – Top Of The Bank 14/1 NR & Dutch Gallery 16/1 Lost

15:40 – The Character 8/1 Lost

16:10 – Monsieur Glory 15/2 Lost & Caponova 66/1 WON

16:40 – Trainnah evs NR & Asama Blue 10/1 WON

17:45 – Colourfilly 7/1 WON

Musselburgh

19:40 – Paddy Power 4/1 3rd

20:10 – Discay 10/1, Pass Muster 10/1 & Triple Eight 12/1 all lost

TODAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: -6.06pts

YESTERDAY’S PROFIT/LOSS: +1.4pts

MAY TO DATE PROFIT/LOSS: +110.90pts

APRIL PROFIT/LOSS: +6.53pts

PROFIT/LOSS SINCE JAN 2015 (updated monthly): +245.50pts