Saturday 31st October

Final day of the month and profit assured once again!! Below are the tips for today, hoping to finish the month off with another few winners before we begin with the new points system from tomorrow.

As ever, I just want to say thanks again for  the recent messages of thanks and all your continued support…. Here’s to another profitable month in November!!

NAP: Fireglow 5/2 – Newmarket 14:05 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/2) +5pts

NB: Haaf A Sixpence 5/1 – Newmarket 14:35 – 1pt win Lost (SP 4/1) -1pt

IWAC: Jollys Cracked It 7/1 – Ascot 14:50 – 0.5pts e/w 3rd (SP 5/1) +0.38pts

Lucky 15: 1.5pts total win (best price B365) -0.9pts

Dynaste (7/2) – Wetherby 15:05 2nd

Colms Dream (13/5) – Down Royal 15:15 Fell

Glingerburn (11/4) – Ayr 16:00 Fell

The Burnham Mare (5/2) – Wolves 19:15 WON





Breeders’ Cup Saturday!!

16:05 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies      2014 winner – Take Charge Brandi

The first race of Breeders’ Cup Saturday is the Juvenile Fillies, a race which has seen 55% of the winners sent off at favourite. The current favourite is Songbird who has a perfect career record with three wins from three, including two at Grade 1 level, and was an extremely impressive all the way winner of the Chandelier Stakes last month, finishing almost five lengths ahead of second and a further eight lengths clear of third. She was similarly impressive in the Del Mar Debutante, showing good early speed to break from a wide berth and had enough in the tank to confidently see off her rivals so definitely sets the standard here.

Rachels Valentina has been drawn in stall nine, just on the inside of Songbird, and looks to be the main danger to the favourite. She also arrives with an unblemished career record with two wins from two runs and warmed up for this by winning the Spinaway Stakes in September, beating the re-opposing Tap To It. She has shown great battling qualities in both her wins and looks the most likely to challenge Songbird.

Nickname was only fourth behind Rachels Valentina on her racecourse debut but has won twice since, most recently in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes (usually a good yardstick for this race) and has some appeal at a likely each way price.

Dothraki Queen won the Grade 2 Pocahontas Stakes in September before a solid second in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades here at Keeneland earlier this month. He probably doesn’t quite have the class to beat the market leaders but could sneak third at a decent each way odds.

Songbird – 11/8 WIN

16:45 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint      2014 winner – Bobby’s Kitten

Of the seven previous renewals of the Turf Sprint the favourite has won three times to give a strike rate of 43%, although any further analysis is difficult given that the race has seen three differing race distances. In a race of this nature it is difficult to be overly confident on any selection and of all the Breeders’ Cup races this is the one to tread carefully in.

Last years winner Bobby’s Kitten returns to defend his crown but has only raced twice this season and has been largely disappointing on both occasions. He needed just about every inch to get up over six and a half furlongs so the drop back to five and a half furlongs here isn’t sure to suit and based on his form this season he looks easily opposable.

Undrafted also returns for another crack at this race after finishing 3rd last year. A ½ length winner of the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot in June 2015, he is re-united with jockey Frankie Dettori who should be determined to win this after being touched off in the final strides last year when aboard No Nay Never.

Lady Shipman has already raced nine times this year, winning seven of these and was only just denied a five timer when a close second in the Franklin County Stakes earlier this month. Providing her busy season hasn’t caught up with her she is probably the form pick of the field.

At a bigger price Pure Sensation is worth a mention. He arrives with a 100% win record in 2015, winning the Grade 3 Turf Monster Handicap en-route here, and has finished in the top three positions in ten of his thirteen career runs. This is a step up in grade and stall 1 isn’t ideal but in a tricky looking race he cannot be discounted.

Pure Sensation – 14/1 E/W

17:25 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint      2014 winner – Judy The Beauty

This years’ Filly and Mare Sprint looks a tough nut to crack. The favourite has won the last three renewals but prior to this there has been a 20/1 winner and an odds-on favourite turned over since its inception in 2007 so there is no guarantee that the favourite will oblige again here.

2013 runner up and last years’ winner Judy The Beauty comes in to this race with a bit of a point to prove after failing to win in three runs so far this year, although it could be argued that she was a little unlucky on her latest outing. She will no doubt have her supporters and will be buoyed by trainer Wesley Wards’ confidence in his star mare but current odds of around 5/1 seem a little short considering her recent form and the strength in depth of the opposition.

La Verdad will likely go off close to the head of the market and its not difficult to see why. Unbeaten in six races during 2015 and overall career record of sixteen wins from twenty two runs, she has already beat both Judy The Beauty and Dame Dorothy this year. The only concern for me is that her latest run was just last week so even though she ran out an easy winner she now races again just seven days later.

Fioretti has shown a big improvement in her last three runs with two wins from three culminating in winning the Group 2 Thoroughbread Club of America Stakes, a key pointer towards this race in previous years. Despite this she is still considered an outsider for this race and is probably looking at a place at best.

Cavorting has emerged victorious in five from seven career runs including the Grade 1 Longines Test Stakes and most recently the Grade 2 Prioress Stakes, running on strongly to win with relative ease. She is the early market leader and should be good enough to get her head in front again today, yet odds of around 5/1 show just how competitive the race is.

Of the remainder, Dame Dorothy beat Judy The Beauty in May 2015 but has not been at her best since returning from a summer break yet with seven wins from eleven career runs she to be considered at a likely bigger price.

La Verdad – 11/2 E/W

18:10 Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf       2014 winner – Dayatthespa

Legatissimo has been labelled as the banker of the meeting by many and although Europeans have a good record in this race, Legatissimo would become the first Irish trained winner if successful. The multiple Group 1 winner lists the 2015 1000 Guineas and Nassau Stakes amongst his victories and only lost out by a head in the both the Investec Oaks and Pretty Polly Stakes so brings arguably the best form to the table for this race.

The Andre Fabre trained 2014 1000 Guineas winner Miss France comes next in the early markets and although has only raced twice this season she has finished a close second on both occasions and has to have a chance here as long as she stays the extra distance.

Secret Gesture has finished in the first three places in eleven of her fifteen career races, winning four, and returns to attempt to improve on her 5th place finish in this race last year. She finished ahead of the re-opposing Stephanie’s Kitten and Watsdachances in the Beverley D Stakes but was subsequently disqualified for interference. Nevertheless she looked the best of the three and should confirm the form again here.

Stephanie’s Kitten leads the charge for the US runners and was an impressive repeat winner of the Grade 1 Flower Bowl earlier this month. At the age of 6 she would become the oldest winner of the race should she emerge victorious but the 2011 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner and 2014 Filly and Mare Turf runner-up is clearly still at the top of her game and cannot be discounted.

Talmada is relative outsider at odds of around 25/1 but has been in great form recently having won a listed race in September before finishing just over a length behind Curvy in the Group 1 E.P Taylor Stakes and is another to consider for minor honours.

Legatissimo – 5/4 WIN & Secret Gesture – 14/1 E/W

18:50 TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint      2014 winner – Work All Week

Private Zone returns for his third crack at the Sprint and despite a best placed 3rd last year he is still the early favourite after winning three and placing twice from his five runs this year. A great front running performance saw him go pillar to post in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes so he appears to be arriving here at the top of his game, although isn’t drawn best to be able to get to the front here.

Runhappy is a course and distance winner and arrives here on the back of four straight wins including winning the Phoenix Stakes on a sloppy track despite a poor break and his saddle slipping part way round. Last years’ winner Work All Week won the Phoenix prior to his Sprint win and connections of Runhappy will be hoping that he can follow the same path.

A winner of two Breeders’ Cup challenge races, Wild Dude also warrants serious consideration at a likely each way price. He has already beat both Masochistic and Kobes Back in both these challenge races and his fast finishing style could suit with Private Zone and Runhappy likely to attempt to set a brisk opening pace.

Wild Dude – 14/1 E/W

19:30 Breeders’ Cup Mile      2014 winner – Karakontie

An open looking Mile contest with last year’s winner Karakontie arriving without a win in 2015, although his prep for 2014 wasn’t ideal either so he cannot be discounted in a race where in recent years the likes of Goldikova and Wise Dan have returned to defend their crowns.

Vying for the head of the market is the Andre Fabre trained duo Make Believe, winner of the Prix De La Foret, and Sun Chariot Stakes winner Esoterique. Fillies/Mares have a great recent record in this race so Esoterique has to be considered a real threat, although there is a suspicion that she may be better suited to a straight track. 3 year old Make Believe also fits with recent stats as the last three 3 year old winners of this race were trained by French trainers. In truth, there is a great case for both and although if pushed I would side with Make Believe I simply can’t tip one over the other.

Time Test has a career record of four wins from seven including the Group 2 Shadwell Joel Stakes when last seen, his first attempt over a mile. The draw hasn’t been kind to him though (drawn in stall twelve) and odds of around 5/1 seem on the short side.

Impassable has solid form on soft ground, winning the Group 2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at Longchamp earlier this month and has an impressive record of three wins and a second from four when racing over a mile. She also fits the stats being a 3 year old, French trained filly and offers more value at an each way price of around 8/1.

Grand Arch and Tepin have both won valuable races this season and rate as other possible each way options at bigger likely double figure odds.

Impassable – 8/1 E/W

20:10 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile      2014 winner – Texas Red

Nyqvist has a perfect record of four wins from four runs, including the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes and the Del Mar Futurity, and attempts to follow his sire Uncle Mo by winning this race. There is an argument that he wasn’t at his best in the FrontRunner Stakes, only just holding off the challenge of the re-opposing Swipe, however was still well clear of the rest of the field and showed his battling qualities to get the job done. This may go some way to explain why he isn’t the early favourite and can still be backed at an each way price at the time of writing.

The Champagne Stakes has been a decent yardstick for this race in recent years and this years’ winner Greenpointcrusader ran out an impressive four length winner on a sloppy track. If the rain continues to fall he looks to have a great chance of following up with a win here.

Brody’s Cause looks likely to head the market after winning the Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders Futurity earlier this month, beating the re-opposing Exaggerator in to second. He was unimpressive on his debut, finishing only eighth, but returned a 33/1 winner next time out before winning the Futurity and could keep on improving here.

Nyqvist – 6/1 E/W

20:50 Longines Breeders Cup Turf      2014 winner – Main Sequence

The penultimate race of the 2015 Breeders’ Cup revolves around the Epsom Derby and Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe winner Golden Horn. Likely to go off at a very short price he may not be much of a betting prospect, especially when you consider that only two out of seven odds-on shots have actually won here. Furthermore, with all the rain around he is unlikely to get his preferred ground and being drawn in stall 1 isn’t ideal…. but despite this I think it would still be a surprise if he didn’t sign off his great career with a win here.

The Aiden O’Brien trained Found is also worthy of a mention having only failing to finish in the top three in one of his ten career runs. This came in the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe where she had a torrid time and finished down the field in ninth, five lengths off the winner Golden Horn. She returned just two weeks later to finish second in the Champion Stakes at Ascot and this will be her third race in just under a month so may not arrive in her prime and offers little value at odds of around 4/1.

Big Blue Kitten warmed up for this by beating rivals Slumber, Twilight Eclipse and Red Rifle and setting a course record in the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes, a race run over the same trip as this race. He has only failed to finish in the top three in three of his twenty nine career runs, a career spanning five years and counting and should be capable of maintaining this record with a top three finish again here.

The Pizza Man actually beat the aforementioned Big Blue Kitten by a neck in the Arlington Million in August and has a career record of fifteen wins from twenty four runs. He was only a neck away from making it four wins from four in 2015, finishing second in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes earlier this month but was ahead a stride after the line and will appreciate the step back up in trip here.

The Pizza Man – 12/1 E/W & Big Blue Kitten – 16/1 E/W

21:35 Breeders’ Cup Classic      2014 winner – Bayern

the defining event of the international racing season”

The final and most distinctive race of The Breeders’ Cup was dealt a huge blow on Thursday with the news that Beholder, already a dual Breeders’ Cup winner having won the Juvenile Fillies in 2012 before returning in 2013 to win the Distaff, will miss the race. She became the first filly ever to win the Pacific Classic when beating her male rivals, who included last years’ Classic winner Bayern, by over eight lengths and warmed up for this race by cantering to her third Zenyatta Stakes and making it a perfect five from five in 2015 so while I absolutely agree that safety and wellbeing should always come first it is disappointing that we won’t get to see what could have been a classic duel.

This leaves the door wide open for 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah to end his racing career on a high and return back-to-back winners for trainer Bob Baffert. With eight wins from ten career races he will likely go off as a short priced favourite but, despite his amazing win record he arrives here on the back of a defeat in the Travers Stakes. It is worth noting that those close to the head of the betting have done well in this race in recent years although the favourite doesn’t have a great record, with only 26% of favourites going on to win. Furthermore, only one of five odds-on shots have finished the race with a win. Having said this it would be a surprise if American Pharoah didn’t emerge victorious.

Tonalist is probably best known for winning the Belmont Stakes when California Chrome could only manage fourth in the last leg of his Triple Crown attempt in 2014. He won the Jockey Club Gold Cup for the second year running as part of his preparation for the Classic and will be looking to improve on his fifth placed finish last year, although is more likely to be fighting it out for minor honours.

Honor Code got up in the final strides to beat Liams Map in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes (with Tonalist back in third) and boasts an impressive career record of six wins and three placed efforts from ten runs. He is another likely to be in the mix and is one to consider while still available at each way odds.

At the time of writing it is still unsure if Gleneagles will run but if Aidan O’Brien decides to let him loose then he’ll be an interesting contender. The thing that confuses me is that he has been pulled whenever the ground has come up anything less than good in recent months, yet he was given the go-ahead to race in the QEII at Ascot two weeks ago on good-to-soft ground and could only manage a lacklustre sixth. It is possible that Aidan O’Brien was just desperate to get a run in to him prior to this race and, despite the fact that he’s never gone further than a mile before and never raced on dirt before, I can’t shake the feeling that he has been sent here to run a big race and may be tempted to have a small each way before the off.

A final mention needs to go to both Keen Ice and Frosted who both ran huge races to upset American Pharoah in the Travers, finishing first and third respectively. They will both need to be at their very best again to get in the mix here but have already proved that they have the quality to mix it with the Triple Crown winner and will likely ensure he doesn’t have it all his own way here.

American Pharoah – evs WIN

Breeders’ Cup Friday!!

19:30 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf         2014 winner – Hootenanny

The opening race of the Breeders’ Cup is the Juvenile turf, a race specifically for two-year old males, ran over a mile. European horses have had the upper hand in this race, winning five of the eight renewals, yet the favourite has a pretty poor record with only one winner so far. Having said this, the Aidan O’Brien trained market leader Hit It A Bomb looks to be a leading contender despite being drawn in stall 14 , arriving with a 100% win record after wins over seven furlongs at Dundalk and the Curragh respectively. On both occasions he raced off the pace before asserting in the final couple of furlongs and will no doubt be given a patient ride by jockey Ryan Moore.

The John Gosden trained Cymric comes next in the market and has also won twice over seven furlongs this season. Unlike the aforementioned Hit It A Bomb, Cymric has attempted a mile before, having finished just a short head second in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp earlier this month. If he runs to the same level in this race then he could prove difficult to beat, although is another who has a difficult draw to overcome.

A reasonable each way option is course and distance winner Airoforce who, like Hit It A Bomb arrives with a perfect win record with two winners from two runs. Unlike the favourite he is already proven over a mile after winning the Grade 3 Dixiana Bourbon Stakes by over two lengths despite racing three wide throughout. Based on this run he has to rate as a leading contender for a top three finish at the very least.

At a bigger price Camelot Kitten also looks to have a chance of making the frame. He was an eye-catching, fast-finishing second behind Airoforce last time out after getting stuck in behind a couple on the final bend and should be able to get closer given a clear run.

Hit It A Bomb – 9/2 WIN & Airoforce – 6/1 E/W

20:10 Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile       2014 winner – Goldencents

Like the Juvenile Turf, the Dirt Mile has only seen one favourite win from the last eight renewals of the race. However, the only odds-on shot to contest the race was Goldencents who won last year and the current favourite Liam’s Map looks likely to go off at a short price, more than likely odds-on.

Liam’s Map won the Grade 1 Woodward Stakes by almost five lengths and his only defeat this season came when being nudged off in the final strides of the Whitney Stakes by Honor Code. With five wins and two seconds from seven career runs, it’s easy to see why he looks likely to go off at a short price. He looks the most likely winner but at the odds he is no betting proposition.

Red Vine has won two and placed on three occasions since switching to dirt and although second (to the Sprint/Classic bound Appealing Tale) last time out he finished ahead of Honor Code and could be the one to benefit from other potential opponents opting for either the Sprint or the Classic rather than take their place here.

The value here could come in the form of Wicked Strong, who has proved expensive to follow and is yet to win in 2015 despite seven runs but ran a solid prep race when placing 2nd behind 2014 Belmont Stakes winner Tonalist earlier this month in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes.

Another who deserves a mention at a likely bigger price is last years’ runner-up Tapiture who, like Wicked Strong, has struggled this year although returned to form somewhat with a win in the Ack Ack at Churchill Downs in September and has the ability to get involved here if running at his best.

Wicked Strong – 12/1 E/W

20:50 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf      2014 winner – Lady Eli

Tin Type Gal (NOW A NON-RUNNER) looks to follow in the footsteps of last years’ winner Lady Eli (as well as two other previous winners), attempting to win this race on the back of winning the Miss Grillo. She showed a good attitude to come from off the pace to lead into the final furlong and just held off the re-opposing Thrilled by a nose. However, two previous winners have arrived here on the back of winning the Natalma Stakes and impressive five length winner Catch A Glimpse looks the more likely of the two to come out on top, especially if allowed to dictate the pace. A winner of two of her three career runs, she has improved on each occasion and it was hard not to be impressed with her demolition job when last seen.

Of the European entries both Illuminate and Alice Springs, 2nd and 4th in the Moyglare respectively, look capable of getting in the mix. Alice Springs was an impressive four length winner of the Tattersalls Millions 2-y-o Fillies Trophy over seven furlongs earlier this month and has raced against some top class opposition this season, finishing behind the likes of Ballydoyle, Lumiere and Minding respectively. This will be her first attempt over a mile but she was staying on well in the Moyglare and finished very strongly in the Tattersalls Millions so the step up shouldn’t pose a problem.

Illuminate notched up a hat-trick of six furlong victories earlier in the season and returned in the Cheveley Park Stakes, finishing just a half length behind Lumiere and a length ahead of the aforementioned Alice Springs. The form is strong and the in-form Frankie Dettori on board again is a positive, although this will be her first attempt racing over further than six furlongs and the possibility of softer than expected ground conditions dampens enthusiasm somewhat.

It is also worth mentioning the William Mott trained Harmonize who was an impressive winner of the JP Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes, having to come from way off the pace and about ten wide on the final bend to collar Sapphire Kitten in the final half furlong. If there is a fast pace in this race then Harmonize could prove to be the main beneficiary with a similar run here.

Alice Springs – 10/3 WIN & Harmonize – 6/1 E/W

21:35 Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff      2014 winner – Untapable

The final race on Breeders’ Cup Friday is the Distaff, a race which for the last ten years has been won by either a 3 or 4 year old with the favourite winning fourteen out of the thirty-one renewals.

Current favourite Wedding Toast is aged 5 and if successful will become the first horse older than 4 to win since 1998. Despite this, her record is impressive having won four from six this year and a 66% career win strike rate. She beat last years’ winner Untapable by five lengths in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps Stakes in June and warmed up for this by winning the Beldame Stakes which has been a key prep race for the Distaff over the years.

Other key prep races include the Cotillion Stakes and the Spinster Stakes so I’m A Chatterbox and Got Lucky also have to enter calculations with I’m A Chatterbox, winner of four from seven (including two Grade 1’s) in 2015, preferred of the two.

Untapable has struggled to get her head in front this year, winning just once from six, although has finished second on four occasions. In contrast she won six of her seven runs in 2014. It would be no surprise to see her make the frame again here although at the likely price I feel there are better options in the field. (NOW A NON-RUNNER)

Stopchargingmaria has won two Grade 3’s en-route to this race and rates as a decent each-way chance. Although only fourth last time out (behind the re-opposing Sheer Drama and Got Lucky) this was her second race in just under a month and she tends to run better with a longer break between races so the two months break since is likely to be a positive rather than a negative.

Stellar Wind has been impressive this year, winning of four from five in 2015. Her only loss was in the Kentucky Oaks Stakes when fourth behind Lovely Maria and I’m A Chatterbox. Her trainer expects her to be even better as a four year old and played down her chances a little for this race but based on her form I feel she shouldn’t be overlooked and could run a big race at double digit odds.

Wedding Toast – 3/1 WIN & Stellar Wind – 10/1 E/W

Thursday 29th October

NAP: Very Special 7/2 – Lingfield 15:20 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 5/2) -2pts

NB: Sendiym 9/2 – Sedgefield 16:00 – 1pt win Lost (SP 4/1) -1pt

IWAC: Time Flies 6/1 – Lingfield 14:50 – 0.5pts e/w 3rd (SP 7/1) +0.38pts

TREBLE: 15.29/1 @Bet365 – 1pt win Lost -1pt

Amuse Me (11/8) – Sedgefield 13:00 WON (SP 2/1)

Western Breeze (6/4) – Sedgefield 14:00 Unseated at Start

Carrigmoorna Rock (7/4) – Clonmel 15:55 2nd





Wednesday 28th October

NAP: Al 2/1 – Nottingham 14:50 – 2pts win Lost (SP evs) -2pts

NB: Monopoli 7/2 – Nottingham 16:20 – 1pt win Lost (SP 3/1) -1pt

IWAC: New Leyf 6/1 – Kempton 18:25 – 0.5pts e/w Lost (SP 10/1) -1pt

Lucky 15: 1.5pts total win (best price Ladbrokes) Lost -1.5pts

NAP (7/4)

NB (3/1)

Khusoosy (7/2) – Chelmsford 15:00

Doc Holliday (4/1) – Dundalk 18:35





Tuesday 27th October

NAP: Chankillo 2/1 – Bangor 15:30 – 2pts win 2nd (SP 9/4) -2pts

NB: Just Get Cracking 3/1 – Punchestown 15:55 – 1pt win Lost (SP 10/3) -1pt

IWAC: Poetic Verse 6/1 – Catterick 13:10 – 0.5pts e/w Lost (SP 9/1) -1pt

Lucky 15: 1.5pts total win (best price Ladbrokes) Lost -1.5pts

NAP (7/4)

NB (11/4)

Real Smart (5/2) – Lingfield 14:05

Berlusca (5/2) – Wolves 18:10





Monday 26th October

NAP: Jack Steel 9/4 – Ayr 15:55 – 2pts win WON (SP 5/4) +4.5pts

NB: Winter Lion 10/3 – Wexford 13:35 – 1pt win NR

IWAC: Lazy Days In Loule 14/1 – Redcar 16:15 – 0.5pts e/w 4th (SP 20/1) +2pts

Grecian Tiger 9/2 – Galway 15:35 – 1pt win Lost (SP 5/1) -1pt